The Cincinnati Reds (60-56) and Miami Marlins (59-56) square off on Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
Oddsmakers project the Reds as a small favorite (-119 moneyline odds to win) against the Marlins (-101). The matchup has an over/under set at 10 total runs.
The betting insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of August 9, 2023 at 11:12 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Reds vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | -119 | -101 | 10 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been favorites in 31 games this season and won 19 (61.3%) of those contests.
- Cincinnati has a record of 10-10 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -119 on the moneyline.
- The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 54.3% chance of a victory for the Reds.
- Games involving Cincinnati has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 59 of 116 chances this season.
- In 116 games with a spread this season, the Reds are 70-46-0 ATS.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.9 |
| HR | 18 |
| ERA | 6.65 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have won in 25, or 43.1%, of the 58 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This year, Miami has won 19 of 50 games when listed as at least -101 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 50.2% chance of walking away with the win.
- Miami’s games have gone over the total in 52 of its 115 opportunities.
- The Marlins have an against the spread mark of 50-65-0 in 115 games with a line this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 10.1 |
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Reds Probable Pitcher – Graham Ashcraft
- Ashcraft’s team is 13-8-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander gave up three earned runs in eight innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the Washington Nationals.
- Ashcraft has seven starts in a row of five innings or more.
- In 21 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
- Ashcraft’s team is 3-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Ashcraft’s team has won 10 of his 21 starts this season.
- Out of Ashcraft’s 21 starts with a total this season, 11 have hit the over.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 51 | 55.2 | 48 | 3.07 | 16 | 1 |
| Buck Farmer | 51 | 55 | 50 | 4.09 | 10 | 2 |
| Alex Young | 50 | 42.2 | 40 | 2.74 | 12 | 1 |
| Alexis Diaz | 50 | 50 | 72 | 2.34 | 1 | 33 |
| Lucas Sims | 47 | 44.2 | 55 | 3.83 | 19 | 2 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Johnny Cueto
- Cueto (0-3 with a 5.32 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Marlins, his fifth of the season.
- In his most recent time out on Thursday, the right-hander threw six innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up four earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Cueto will try to extend a four-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.4 frames per outing).
- In one of his appearances this season he has not allow an earned run.
- The Marlins were named the moneyline underdog for two Cueto starts this season — they lost both.
- All four of Cueto’s starts this season have ended in defeat for his team.
- Cueto has had four starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and one of those outings finished over the total.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 48 | 53.2 | 77 | 2.85 | 22 | 2 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 44 | 54 | 57 | 4.00 | 13 | 0 |
| David Robertson | 44 | 48 | 53 | 2.63 | 7 | 17 |
| Andrew Nardi | 41 | 39.2 | 53 | 2.95 | 8 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | 41 | 42 | 56 | 2.79 | 10 | 0 |
Reds Hitting Trends
- The Reds have a 31-9 record in games this season when they belt at least two home runs.
- Cincinnati is 26-8 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has notched at least eight hits in 77 games this season, and is 54-23 in those contests.
- Cincinnati has a 59-12 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Reds have gone 18-20 in the 38 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 35 games this season and are 14-21 in those matchups.
- Miami has won 19 of its 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 48 of the 87 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 52 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 40-12.
- They have won 13 of their 25 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Reds vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Reds (-119)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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