The Pittsburgh Pirates (51-61) will look to Connor Joe, on a two-game homer streak, against the Atlanta Braves (70-40) at 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, at PNC Park.
The Pirates are an underdog at home (+142) versus the Braves (-168). The over/under in the game is 10 total runs.
The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of August 8, 2023 at 7:19 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -168 | +142 | 10 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have entered the game as favorites 97 times this season and won 62, or 63.9%, of those games.
- Atlanta has a record of 37-16 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -168 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 62.7%.
- Games involving Atlanta has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 59 of 110 chances this season.
- In 110 games with a spread this season, the Braves are 56-54-0 ATS.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 7.1 |
| HR | 25 |
| ERA | 4.76 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 90 games this year and have walked away with the win 38 times (42.2%) in those games.
- Pittsburgh has a mark of 14-15 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +142 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 41.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 58 of its 112 opportunities.
- In 112 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 54-58-0 against the spread.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 4.40 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Yonny Chirinos
- Chirinos’ team is 4-2-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw five innings against the Los Angeles Angels, giving up three earned runs while allowing six hits.
- In six starts, Chirinos has pitched through or past the fifth inning six times. He has a season average of 4.2 frames per outing.
- He has five appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 17 chances this season.
- Chirinos’ team is 4-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Chirinos’ team has a 4-2 record in his starts this season.
- Games Chirinos has started this season hit the over four times in six chances.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce Johnson | 48 | 44.2 | 66 | 5.24 | 5 | 13 |
| A.J. Minter | 47 | 44.1 | 54 | 4.67 | 11 | 10 |
| Brad Hand | 42 | 37.2 | 41 | 4.30 | 3 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | 40 | 42 | 54 | 3.21 | 6 | 2 |
| Joe Jiménez | 40 | 40 | 49 | 2.70 | 10 | 0 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller
- Keller (9-8) is looking for his 10th win when he gets the starting nod for the Pirates in his 24th start of the season. He has a 4.35 ERA in 138 2/3 innings pitched, with 150 strikeouts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance came on Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he tossed five innings, surrendering eight earned runs while allowing nine hits.
- Keller will try to build upon a 23-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.0 frames per outing).
- He has made three appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
- The Pirates are 7-8 in Keller’s 15 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Keller’s team is 11-12 in his 23 starts.
- Keller’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 12 of 23 games.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 44 | 46.2 | 56 | 1.54 | 0 | 23 |
| Colin Holderman | 39 | 38.1 | 40 | 3.29 | 16 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 32 | 33.1 | 37 | 4.32 | 5 | 0 |
| Angel Perdomo | 25 | 24.1 | 35 | 3.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Yerry De Los Santos | 22 | 24.1 | 18 | 3.33 | 3 | 0 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have put up at least two dingers in 60 games this season, and are 45-15 in those outings.
- Atlanta is 29-3 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
- The team is 53-24 in the games this season it has strung together at least eight hits.
- Atlanta is 56-13 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Braves have gone 20-12 over the 32 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They are 23-7 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Pittsburgh has won 19 of its 22 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 36 of the 51 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Pittsburgh has a 32-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 15-17 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Braves vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-168)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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