Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – August 4, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 4, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds (59-52) will aim to stop a three-game losing streak when hosting the Washington Nationals (46-63) at 6:40 PM ET on Friday.

The Reds are favored at home (-181) versus the Nationals (+152). The contest has an over/under of 10.5.

The betting insights in this article reference odds valid as of August 4, 2023 at 5:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Reds vs Nationals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Reds -181 +152 10.5

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have been favorites in 28 games this season and won 19 (67.9%) of those contests.
  • Cincinnati has played as favorites of -181 or more twice this season and won both games.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 64.4% chance of a victory for the Reds.
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 59 of 111 opportunities.
  • In 111 games with a spread this season, the Reds are 68-43-0 ATS.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.7
HR 14
ERA 6.11
K/9 8.5

Nationals Betting Insights

  • The Nationals have been victorious in 41, or 40.6%, of the 101 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Washington has a mark of 24-26 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +152 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 39.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Washington and its opponents have gone over in 52 of its 108 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Nationals are 58-50-0 against the spread in their 108 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.4
HR 5
ERA 4.86
K/9 6.5

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Reds Probable Pitcher – Graham Ashcraft

  • Ashcraft and his team have a record of 13-7-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers while allowing five hits.
  • Ashcraft has pitched five or more innings in six straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has two appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 20 chances this season.
  • Ashcraft’s team has won 75% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (3-1).
  • Ashcraft’s team has won 10 of his 20 starts.
  • Games started by Ashcraft have an 11-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 49 53.2 46 3.02 16 1
Buck Farmer 49 53.1 49 3.88 9 2
Alex Young 49 42.1 40 2.55 12 1
Alexis Diaz 48 47.1 68 2.09 1 32
Lucas Sims 44 43 53 3.77 18 2

Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin

  • Corbin (7-11 with a 5.14 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 126 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Nationals, his 23rd of the season.
  • In his most recent appearance on Saturday, the left-hander threw 5 2/3 innings against the New York Mets, giving up four earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Corbin will try to build on a 22-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.7 frames per appearance).
  • In one of his 22 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
  • The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in 20 of Corbin’s starts this season, and they went 9-11 in those matchups.
  • Corbin’s team has a 10-12 record in his 22 starts.
  • Corbin has had 22 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and 12 of those matchups hit the over.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Kyle Finnegan 43 46 43 2.93 8 15
Mason Thompson 41 47.1 40 4.18 10 1
Jordan Weems 25 30.1 30 2.97 2 0
Andres Machado 18 21.1 17 7.59 1 0
Joe LaSorsa 14 15 11 5.40 1 0

Reds Hitting Trends

  • The Reds are 30-7 this season in games when they send out two or more bombs.
  • Cincinnati has put up at least five extra-base hits in 34 games this season, and has gone 26-8 in those outings.
  • The team has strung together at least eight hits 77 times this season, and has a 54-23 record in those games.
  • Cincinnati is 58-12 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Reds are 18-20 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Nationals Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 24 games this season and are 15-9 in those matchups.
  • Washington has won 13 of its 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have a record of 37-35 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Washington has won 32 of its 44 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • In 20 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 10-10

Reds vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (-181)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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