The Minnesota Twins (55-54) and St. Louis Cardinals (48-61) play a rubber match on Thursday at 7:45 PM ET, with the series deadlocked at 1-1.
As the favorite, the Twins (-139 moneyline odds to win) take the field at the Cardinals (+117). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The betting trends in what follows reference odds valid as of August 3, 2023 at 7:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Twins vs Cardinals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | -139 | +117 | 8.5 |
Twins Betting Insights
- The Twins have been favorites in 71 games this season and won 42 (59.2%) of those contests.
- Minnesota is 27-21 this season when entering a game favored by -139 or more on the moneyline.
- The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 58.2% chance of a victory for the Twins.
- Minnesota and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 51 of 109 opportunities.
- The Twins have an ATS record of 49-60-0 in 109 games with a spread this season.
Twins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 5.14 |
| K/9 | 9.2 |
Cardinals Betting Insights
- The Cardinals have been chosen as underdogs in 48 games this year and have walked away with the win 22 times (45.8%) in those games.
- This year, St. Louis has won seven of 17 games when listed as at least +117 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Cardinals have an implied victory probability of 46.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- St. Louis and its opponents have gone over in 54 of its 108 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- In 108 games with a line this season, the Cardinals have a mark of 52-56-0 against the spread.
Cardinals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.2 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 4.50 |
| K/9 | 7.1 |
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Twins Probable Pitcher – Sonny Gray
- Gray’s team is 8-13-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed five hits in six innings against the Kansas City Royals.
- Gray will look to finish five or more innings for the eighth start in a row.
- In 21 appearances this season, he has finished four without allowing an earned run.
- When Gray starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 7-7.
- Gray’s team has won nine of his 21 starts.
- Out of Gray’s 21 starts with a total this season, nine have hit the over.
Twins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 47 | 45.1 | 42 | 2.78 | 15 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagán | 42 | 47.1 | 44 | 3.23 | 3 | 0 |
| Dylan Floro | 42 | 41 | 41 | 4.39 | 9 | 7 |
| Jovani Moran | 40 | 41.1 | 47 | 5.44 | 9 | 0 |
| Jhoan Duran | 39 | 41.2 | 57 | 2.81 | 1 | 18 |
Cardinals Probable Pitcher – Matthew Liberatore
- The Cardinals are sending Liberatore (1-3) to make his ninth start of the season. He is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last time out on Wednesday, July 5, the left-hander threw a third of an inning against the Miami Marlins, giving up four earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Liberatore is trying to secure his fourth start of five or more innings this season in this matchup.
- He has had two appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
- The Cardinals have a 2-4 record in Liberatore’s six starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Liberatore’s team is 3-5 in his eight starts.
- Liberatore’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in three of eight games.
Cardinals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanny Gallegos | 41 | 45 | 44 | 3.60 | 15 | 8 |
| Drew VerHagen | 38 | 42 | 44 | 4.71 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Pallante | 36 | 41.2 | 34 | 4.32 | 9 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | 17 | 21.2 | 22 | 3.74 | 2 | 1 |
| John King | 15 | 19.2 | 10 | 5.49 | 2 | 0 |
Twins Hitting Trends
- The Twins have a 41-11 record in games this season when they smash two or more home runs.
- Minnesota has collected five or more extra-base hits in 36 games this season, and has gone 30-6 in those contests.
- The club has totaled at least eight hits 66 times this season, and has a 49-17 record in those games.
- Minnesota is 51-9 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Twins have drawn at least five walks in 35 games this season, and are 23-12 in those contests.
Cardinals Hitting Trends
- They are 35-19 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- St. Louis has gone 28-5 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 74 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 47-27.
- St. Louis has won 42 of its 54 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 14 of their 33 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Twins vs. Cardinals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Cardinals (+117)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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