Bryson Stott leads the Philadelphia Phillies (58-50) into a matchup with Luis Arraez and the Miami Marlins (58-51) at LoanDepot park, on Thursday at 12:10 PM ET. Stott is at .303, the ninth-best average in the league, while Arraez ranks first at .378.
The Marlins are an underdog (+109 on the moneyline to win) when they host the Phillies (-129). The contest has an over/under of 8.5.
The betting insights in the article below use the latest odds as of August 3, 2023 at 11:18 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -129 | +109 | 8.5 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have won 39, or 57.4%, of the 68 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Philadelphia has entered 47 games this season favored by -129 or more and is 31-16 in those contests.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 56.3% chance to win.
- Games involving Philadelphia has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 45 of 108 chances this season.
- The Phillies are 46-62-0 against the spread in their 108 chances this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 6 |
| ERA | 3.23 |
| K/9 | 8.0 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have come away with 25 wins in the 54 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This season, Miami has been victorious 16 times in 36 chances when named as an underdog of at least +109 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 47.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over in 51 of its 109 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Marlins have posted a record of 49-60-0 against the spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Michael Lorenzen
- Lorenzen’s team is 11-7-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander last pitched on Thursday with the Detroit Tigers, when he threw five innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up five hits against the Los Angeles Angels.
- Lorenzen has pitched five or more innings in 17 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has six appearances with no earned runs allowed in 18 chances this season.
- Lorenzen’s team has a record of 4-2 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Lorenzen’s team has won eight of his 18 starts this season.
- In games Lorenzen has started this season, the teams are 9-8-1 at hitting the over.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 49 | 47 | 65 | 3.26 | 4 | 18 |
| Gregory Soto | 47 | 42.1 | 41 | 4.25 | 16 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 35 | 29.1 | 31 | 4.60 | 10 | 1 |
| Yunior Marte | 33 | 30.2 | 28 | 4.99 | 2 | 2 |
| Matt Strahm | 27 | 65.2 | 82 | 3.70 | 4 | 1 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Johnny Cueto
- Cueto (0-2) takes the mound first for the Marlins in his fourth start of the season. He has a 5.06 ERA in 16 2/3 innings pitched, with 14 strikeouts.
- His most recent appearance came on Saturday against the Detroit Tigers, when the right-hander went six innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up four hits.
- Cueto will try to prolong a three-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.0 innings per outing).
- He has had one appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Marlins were the underdog on the moneyline for one Cueto start this season — they lost.
- Cueto’s three starts have all been losses for his team this season.
- Cueto has had three starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and one of those outings hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 46 | 51.2 | 73 | 2.96 | 21 | 2 |
| David Robertson | 43 | 47 | 51 | 2.68 | 7 | 16 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 42 | 52.1 | 53 | 4.13 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrew Nardi | 39 | 37.2 | 50 | 3.11 | 7 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | 39 | 40 | 54 | 2.93 | 10 | 0 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies are 22-8 this season in games when they crush two or more bombs.
- Philadelphia has gone 18-7 in its 25 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has collected at least eight hits 70 times this season, and has a 44-26 record in those games.
- Philadelphia has a 39-8 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Phillies have gone 25-12 in the 37 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They are 14-19 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 19-1.
- They have won 48 of the 86 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 51 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 40-11.
- In 24 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 13-11
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (+109)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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