The Milwaukee Brewers (58-51) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (48-59) to open a four-game series at American Family Field, with first pitch at 7:15 PM ET on Thursday. The Brewers are on the back of a series defeat to the Nationals, and the Pirates a series split with the Tigers.
The Pirates (+112 underdog on the moneyline to win) visit the Brewers (-131). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in the article below reflect odds as of August 3, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Brewers vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -131 | +112 | 8.5 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- This season, the Brewers have been favored 55 times and won 30, or 54.5%, of those games.
- Milwaukee has a record of 18-15 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -131 on the moneyline.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Brewers have a 56.7% chance to win.
- Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 46 of 109 opportunities.
- The Brewers are 53-56-0 against the spread in their 109 chances this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 5.19 |
| K/9 | 9.3 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have won in 35, or 41.2%, of the 85 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Pittsburgh has a mark of 32-35 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +112 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 47.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 55 of its 107 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Pirates are 50-57-0 against the spread in their 107 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.74 |
| K/9 | 9.9 |
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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Adrian Houser
- Houser’s team is 8-4-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw four innings against the Atlanta Braves, giving up six earned runs while allowing eight hits.
- Houser has started 12 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings seven times. He averages 4.8 innings per appearance.
- In 14 appearances this season, he has finished three without allowing an earned run.
- Houser’s team is 1-1 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
- Houser’s team has a 7-5 record in his starts this season.
- Games started by Houser have a 2-10-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 49 | 43.2 | 40 | 2.27 | 10 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 47 | 51.1 | 59 | 1.93 | 22 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | 42 | 41.1 | 60 | 1.52 | 0 | 27 |
| Elvis Peguero | 41 | 43.2 | 36 | 3.71 | 15 | 1 |
| Andrew Chafin | 40 | 34.1 | 49 | 4.19 | 12 | 8 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller
- Keller (9-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 133 2/3 innings pitched) aims for his 10th victory when he makes the start for the Pirates, his 23rd of the season.
- In his most recent time out on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies, the righty threw 5 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering six hits.
- Keller is looking for his 22nd straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.1 frames per start.
- He has had three appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Pirates have a 7-7 record in Keller’s 14 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- In Keller’s 22 starts, his team is 11-11.
- Keller’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 11 of 22 games.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauri Moreta | 46 | 47.1 | 63 | 3.61 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | 41 | 43.2 | 56 | 1.24 | 0 | 22 |
| Colin Holderman | 36 | 35.1 | 36 | 3.57 | 16 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 30 | 31.2 | 36 | 3.69 | 4 | 0 |
| Angel Perdomo | 23 | 22.2 | 32 | 3.57 | 4 | 0 |
Brewers Hitting Trends
- The Brewers are 35-8 this season in games when they crush two or more home runs.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in its 10 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club is 40-16 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
- Milwaukee is 47-10 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Brewers are 27-10 in the 37 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They have won 21 of the 28 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Pittsburgh has gone 18-3 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 49 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 34-15.
- Pittsburgh has a 30-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won 14 of their 30 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Brewers (-131)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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