Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – August 2, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 2, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies (58-49) and Miami Marlins (57-51) meet on Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET.

The Phillies are a favorite (-123) at the Marlins (+103). The matchup has an over/under of 7.5 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below reflect odds as of August 2, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Phillies vs Marlins Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Phillies -123 +103 7.5

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been favorites in 67 games this season and won 39 (58.2%) of those contests.
  • Philadelphia is 32-19 this season when entering a game favored by -123 or more on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 55.2% chance to win.
  • Games involving Philadelphia has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 44 of 107 chances this season.
  • The Phillies have an ATS record of 46-61-0 in 107 games with a spread this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 5
ERA 2.83
K/9 8.5

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 53 games this year and have walked away with the win 24 times (45.3%) in those games.
  • Miami has a mark of 16-25 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +103 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over in 50 of its 108 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • In 108 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 48-60-0 against the spread.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 3.2
HR 5
ERA 3.90
K/9 9.7

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Zack Wheeler

  • Wheeler and his team have a record of 8-13-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander gave up one earned run and allowed three hits in 6 2/3 innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday.
  • Wheeler will look to finish five or more innings for the 10th start in a row.
  • He has made 21 appearances and finished four of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Wheeler’s team has been victorious in 63.2% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 12-7.
  • Wheeler’s team has a 14-7 record in his starts this season.
  • In games Wheeler has started this season, the teams are 8-11-2 at hitting the over.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 48 46 65 3.13 4 18
Gregory Soto 46 41.1 41 4.14 16 2
Seranthony Domínguez 35 29.1 31 4.60 10 1
Yunior Marte 33 30.2 28 4.99 2 2
Andrew Vasquez 29 39.2 34 2.27 0 0

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Braxton Garrett

  • Garrett gets the start for the Marlins, his 20th of the season. He is 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 106 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Friday against the Detroit Tigers, when he threw six innings, allowing no earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • Garrett will try to pick up his 16th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.0 innings per appearance.
  • He has had four appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
  • The Marlins are 5-3 in Garrett’s eight starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Over Garrett’s 19 starts, his team is 14-5.
  • Garrett has started 19 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 10 of them.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 45 50.2 71 3.02 21 2
David Robertson 42 46 50 2.54 7 16
Huascar Brazoban 41 52.1 53 3.78 13 0
Andrew Nardi 38 36.2 48 3.19 7 2
Steven Okert 38 39 52 3.00 10 0

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • The Phillies have racked up at least two homers in 30 games this season, and are 22-8 in those outings.
  • Philadelphia has gone 18-6 in its 24 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club is 44-25 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
  • Philadelphia is 39-7 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Phillies are 25-11 in the 36 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 32 games this season and are 13-19 in those matchups.
  • Miami has won 18 of its 19 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 47 of the 85 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Miami has won 39 of its 50 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • In 23 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 12-11

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (+103)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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