Sunday Night Football Betting

Week 3 SNF Predictions: Packers vs. 49ers Picks

Welcome to our Sunday Night Football betting page, where we provide all the NFL odds, analysis, and predictions you need to cash in on the National Football League in prime time!

Here, we are going to break down every SNF matchup and offer advice on game picks in addition to plenty of different prop bets. So make PlayPicks your go-to destination before making any Sunday Night Football bets at one of the many online sportsbooks available throughout the country.

WEEK 3 SNF BETTING ODDS & PREVIEW

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (8:20 p.m. ET)

When the Niners’ defense was healthy during the 2019-2020 season, it dominated the Packers in a regular season meeting and led the charge in a 37-20 victory in the NFC Championship game. San Francisco rushed for 285 yards in the NFC title game and sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times over the course of their two meetings.

Through two games this season, Nick Bosa and the San Francisco front has only produced three sacks (5.1% adjusted sack rate) and they’re allowing 133.5 rushing YPG at a 5.0 YPC clip. Last week, the Niners’ defense was missing LB Dre Greenlaw (groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee), and CB Jason Verrett (ACL), while linemen Arik Armstead (abductor), Javon Kinlaw (knee), and Dee Ford (ankle) were all questionable heading into a tough matchup against the Eagles. The defense held its own in a 17-11 victory, but Jalen Hurts ran for 82 yards and a TD, so Rodgers could be a factor in the run game.

The Niners have posted the third-highest run-play percentage (53.6%) in the NFL this season, but are averaging just 3.8 YPC. Raheem Mostert (knee) is out for the year and his backups all suffered injuries in the second half against the Eagles. Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and JaMychal Hasty (ankle) would be poised to lead their backfield committee if healthy. The Niners passing attack has been generally unimpressive, but Jimmy Garoppolo has enjoyed excellent protection now that LT Trent Williams is guarding his blind side.

Green Bay suffered an embarrasing blowout loss to New Orleans in Week 1 and and bounced back with a nice win over Detroit in its home opener Monday night. The Packers scored a 34-17 win at Levi’s Stadium last November and held the Niners to 55 rushing yards in the win. Those results were obviously skewed by the situation, as Nick Mullens started for SF with Richie James serving as his top option after most of his receivers were inactive due to a COVID-19 outbreak.

The Packers have struggled to stop the run over the past few seasons and finished 21st in DVOA rush defense in 2020, so the Niners should continue to attack their defensive front on the ground. Deebo Samuel has been the top receiving option for the Niners this season by a wide margin and it will be interesting to see if the Packers deploy elite CB Jaire Alexander in shadow coverage against him.

Rodgers, who is originally from California, owns a 66.2% completion rate and 9:1 TD:INT ratio (106.9 passer rating) over 4 regular season road games at San Francisco. He’s been sacked 11 times in those contests. Rodgers posted an absurd 25:3 TD:INT ratio and averaged 279.5 passing yards per game on the road last season.

  • 49ers went 0-3 ATS as a home favorite in 2020
  • 49ers are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 to the over/under in 2021
  • Packers are 10-7 ATS on the road since 2019

For more betting information on Sunday night’s game including analysis of the matchup and odds, plus relevant trends and any other important information, check out the SNF betting preview at TheLines.

WEEK 3 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICKS

The Packers got back to their form on offense in Week 2 and should carry that momentum into this primetime matchup. Injuries and transactions over the past couple years have diminished the Niners fearsome front seven significantly, so Rodgers should have time to throw, and the Niners secondary isn’t going to be able to shut down Davante Adams and the rest of the receiving corps.

San Francisco is giving up 5.0 YPC and Aaron Jones got the Packers run game going last Monday. Since the Packers defense has been relatively poor, with just one sack through two games, we expect Garoppolo and the Niners to keep pace with the visiting Packers.

San Francisco games are 10-6 to the Over when the Niners have been listed as home favorites since 2018. Packers games are 7-3 to the Over when they were playing with a rest disadvantage since 2018.

The Pick: Over 50.5 or better (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

SNF PROP BETS FOR WEEK 3

Deebo Samuel (WR, 49ers)

Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-120 or better): The Packers’ defense is largely bereft of talent outside of Jaire Alexander, who might shadow Deebo Samuel. If the Niners’ coaching staff wants to get their top WR involved, Samuel should get at least one carry on a gadget play or two. Samuel’s rushing prop is only 5.5 yards at DraftKings with -120 odds on the over. He’s carried seven times for 29 yards over his last six regular season appearances.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, Packers)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-185 or better): The odds are short on our second player prop, but it’s almost a lock. Aaron Rodgers is getting -185 odds at DraftKings to top 1.5 passing scores. The 49ers are banged up at CB and their pass rush is not on the same level of the unit that twice stifled Rodgers during the 2019-2020 season. Only 26.32% of TDs against the 49ers last season came on the ground and Rodgers is given the green light in the red zone more than any other QB.

*Picks are made well in advance of kickoff and all odds are subject to change after selections are made*

Week 3 NFL BETTING ODDS

Sunday Night Football Betting

Sunday Night NFL games first began to air on ABC in 1978 under the “Monday Night Football” banner and in 1987, ESPN picked up the broadcast. From 1990-97, TNT aired the game. In 2006, NBC took over the exclusive rights from ESPN and the network holds the rights to this day.

In the 21st century, SNF games have become a headline event thanks in no small part to ESPN including the show as part of it’s “Sunday NFL Countdown” package. With so much of the betting public focusing on NFL games, there’s more action at online sportsbooks in available markets.

Betting sites offer a wide array of SNF betting markets from traditional moneylines, spreads, and totals to a huge number of game, player, and team props. With Sunday Night Football running alone in the prime-time slot, there are often more live betting options to pursue as well.

In this article, we’ll go through how to bet on Sunday Night Football including some SNF betting strategies to employ.

How To Bet On Sunday Night Football

While there are often more options, betting on Sunday Night Football is similar to the process of betting on any other NFL game. The most popular NFL markets for any matchup will always be the following:

SNF Moneyline Betting

A moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the game, regardless of the score. The favorite has a negative line while the underdog has a positive line. Take the following example:

  • Los Angeles Rams -380
  • Chicago Bears +290

The best way to calculate what you stand to win or lose with moneylines is to base everything off the number 100. With favorites, the moneyline is the amount you need to risk to win $100. For underdogs, the moneyline is the amount you can win if you risk $100.

The Rams are the favorite at -380, so bettors must wager $380 to profit $100. The Bears are the underdog with a +290 moneyline, so a $100 bet could profit $290.

SNF Point Spread Betting

When teams don’t necessarily match up evenly, sportsbooks will set a point spread to encourage more action. The point spread is a figure set by oddsmakers that tells us how much a team must win or lose by to ‘cover’ in a game. The favorite must win by more than the point spread, and the underdog can lose the game by a lesser number than the spread indicates and still win the wager.

  • Los Angeles Rams -7 (-115)
  • Chicago Bears +7 (-105)

In this example, the Bears are getting -105 odds to cover a seven-point spread . This means that bettors must risk $105 to win $100 if Chicago wins, or loses by 7 points or fewer. The favored Rams would have to win by 7 or more points to cover at -115 odds. So a bet of $115 on the Rams (-7) would profit $100.

If the spread is a whole number and the favorite’s winning margin lands exactly on the number, the bet is graded a push and all bettors are refunded their original wagers. The spread will be equal for both teams, though the juice that accompanies the odds could vary. Conventionally, games are around -110 but the popular range for juice on NFL spreads is in the -125 to +100 range.

SNF Over-Under Betting

Betting on the over-under (or total) simply involves predicting whether the combined score of the game will go over or under the total set by oddsmakers prior to the game. For example, say the we had the following total:

  • Rams-Bears Over 45 (-110)
  • Rams-Bears Under 45 (-110)

If you want to take the Over 45 (-110), you will need 46 or more points between the two teams combined and you’ll have to lay out $110 to win $100. To place a wager on the Under 45 (-110), bettors will need to risk the same $110 to win $100 and will win the bet if there are 44 points or fewer in the game.

Just like point spreads, a final score on the exact point total will result in a push and original wagers will be returned to both over and under bettors. Also similar to spreads, the juice on most totals ranges from -125 to +100.

Sunday Night Football Props

Sporstsbooks offer individual player and team props on most NFL games, but standalone contests on Sunday Night will generally have a wider market of prop bets. These propositions generate a ton of action with some fans planning to watch every minute of the contest and hope that a given wide receiver, running back, or quarterback reaches the desired total.

These betting props offer another option for bettors who don’t like the options on the moneyline, total, or spread, or for the casual fan who simply wants some stake in the action.  Sportsbooks such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM are known for posting a huge variety of markets including player props, game props, and team props.

Below, we’ll go through what bettors can expect to run into when looking to make SNF prop bets:

SNF Player Props

The most popular type of prop bet is for individual player performances. Usually, the top options available are over-under propositions on how a skill player will perform. Quarterbacks tend to have a more extensive array of propositions because they are guaranteed a certain amount of opportunities. The options for player prop bets include but are not limited to:

  • Touchdown Scorer (First/Last, Anytime, Halves)
  • Over-Under Passing/Rushing/Receiving Yards
  • Over-Under Pass Attempts, Completions, & Receptions
  • Longest Completion, Reception, & Rush
  • Head To Head Matchups (Most Rushing/Receiving/Passing Yards)

Picking a more specific result, such as the first or last touchdown scorer, usually generates long odds. For even longer odds, specify which half a player might score.

Most of the skill player propositions are set at a competitive number with standard odds, but there is still value to be found by shopping lines across multiple sportsbooks. Larger payouts can also be generated with player prop parlays, which combine player props with the result of the game.

SNF Game & Team Props

In addition to individual player props, sportsbooks will offer propositions on how a team might perform, or on overall game results combined from both teams. Both game and team props can be lumped together in the sense that they refer to a result rather than individual statistics. Here are some examples of non-player props:

  • Winning Margin
  • Team Totals (Quarters, Halves, Full Game)
  • O/U Total Field Goals/Touchdowns (Halves, Full Game, By Team)
  • O/U Total 1st Downs/Turnovers/Sacks (Full Game, By Team)
  • First Team To X Points (10, 15, 20, 25, etc.)
  • Halftime/Full Time Result

Odds vary widely in these markets because some of the props are extremely specific. Picking the exact winning margin (Example: Chiefs win by 7) will generate long odds, whereas picking the Chiefs to win by a margin between 1-6 points will generate shorter odds, but will still have longer odds than simply betting on the Chiefs to cover a 6-point spread.

In primetime Sunday Night Football games, betting on the first team to score X amount of points is an intriguing way to bet on which team will get off to the better start. Going over or under on specific scoring plays – such as the amount of field goals made – is a unique way to wager without investing in a potential winner or loser.

Other team performance props are a great way to capitalize on an understanding of matchups. If a team is missing their starting center when they take on Aaron Donald and the Rams, it’s fair to bet on the Rams topping their team total for sacks.

There are additional team props for bettors looking for a modified line, a specific part of the game, or a combination wager such as a parlay:

  • Quarters & Halves Moneyline, Spread, & Total
  • Alternate Spreads/Totals (Quarters, Halves, Full Game)
  • Moneyline or Spread/Total Points Parlays

And online sportsbooks will continue to adjust and offer more team and game props under the live betting option. These odds change after most pivotal plays and will reflect current gameflow, with the likelier outcome getting shorter odds based on results to that point.

Sunday Night Football Live Betting

Once the game kicks off, the action is only just opening for those with access to an online sportsbook account. Oddsmakers use an algorithm to consistently update odds for the spread, moneyline, total, and for prop bets during Sunday Night Football games.

Some books engage bettors further by offering props on the next drive, or even the next play. Here are some of the live betting options that can be found at sportsbooks:

  • Moneyline, Spread, & Total (Quarters, Halves, Full Game)
  • Alternate Spreads & Totals
  • Team Totals
  • Player Props
  • Next Drive/Play Result
  • Next Touchdown Scorer

Sunday Night Football Betting Strategy

There are some aspects of Sunday Night Football that may alter your perspective of the game compared to how you’d view games on the main Sunday slate. So, it helps to have an angle to consider before diving deeper into analysis of the matchup. Consider the following SNF betting tips and strategies before putting any of your money on the line this Sunday night:

Take Advantage Of Props

As mentioned, the standalone nature of SNF games allows for a larger market of prop bets. Savvy bettors can take advantage of that market by finding the weakest options set by oddsmakers. Scan through the entire list of individual player props and find a running back that is likely to get peppered with targets if their team is behind in the fourth quarter. That is a primary example of the best way to find a relatively untapped market and profit.

No matter what aspect of the game you’re hoping to target, online sportsbooks will likely have it covered in the props section. For fantasy football players, this strategy provides an easy way to use the skills of predicting gameflow and player performance to cash in on bets. Odds can vary widely when it comes to prop bets, so it’s possible to play it safe with a bet that is likely to pay out, or take a long shot with a smaller wager.

Scour The Injury Report

Injuries always play a critical factor in NFL games and Sunday Night kickoffs give key players a little extra rest to potentially get right ahead of the game. Monitor the injury report and look for updates on Twitter if a key player is going through warm-ups to test out an injury.

Initial injury reports come out on Monday, but the status of players is usually indicated by their participation in practices on Thursday and Friday.

Bet Overs Early & Unders Late

Standalone primetime games often see the most attention from the public simply because it’s the only game on the schedule. This means every recreational gambler in the space is wagering on this matchup, and that may change how you operate as a bettor.

Most casual bettors will place wagers right before kickoff and that can result in line shifts that indicate more about public sentiment than any huge change in the matchup. Fans tend to bet the over, especially right before kickoff, because they’re hoping for an exciting game with more points. That provides the opportunity to fade the public and take the under late, or consider live betting on the under. The same principle can apply towards taking a favorite late if the public is backing an underdog heavily right before kickoff.

Lean Toward Home Teams

Home teams usually have a big advantage in primetime games because the crowd is more energetic and more invested. With NFL stadiums returning to full capacity, it could be very difficult for offenses to communicate and function when playing on the road this season, especially in louder arenas.

But don’t be blindly on the home team, especially because oddsmakers consider home field advantage when setting the spread. Sometimes it’s possible to fade the public by taking a road team that is getting extra value as they prepare to play in a tough environment.

2021 Sunday Night Football Schedule

The NFL has Sunday Night Football scheduled for the first 17 weeks this season, as teams move to a 17-game schedule this season. There will be no SNF game in Week 18 as teams all play in the afternoon to determine the final playoff picture.

Late in the season, some Saturday Night games will be branded as Sunday Night Football and broadcast on NBC. Below is the full schedule for SNF games in the 2021-22 NFL season.

NFL WeekTeam vs. TeamDate
Week 1Chicago Bears at Los Angeles RamsSeptember 12
Week 2Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore RavensSeptember 19
Week 3Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ersSeptember 26
Week 4Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots October 3
Week 5Buffalo Bills at Kansas City ChiefsOctober 10
Week 6Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh SteelersOctober 17
Week 7Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ersOctober 24
Week 8Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota VikingsOctober 31
Week 9Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles RamsNovember 7
Week 10Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersNovember 14
Week 11Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles ChargersNovember 21
Week 12Cleveland Browns at Baltimore RavensNovember 28
Week 13San Francisco 49ers at Seattle SeahawksDecember 5
Week 14Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersDecember 12
Week 15New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay BuccaneersDecember 19
Week 16Washinton Football Team at Dallas CowboysDecember 26
Week 17Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay PackersJanuary 2, 2022
Week 18TBDJanuary 9, 2022
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