DFS MLB Lineups for May 3, 2017 at Draftkings.com & Fanduel.com
For this baseball season, each day there’s a good slate of DFS MLB games, we’ll be writing up a group of pitchers and hitters that we’re considering for our cash and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll also provide a list of stacks to consider, MLB start times, starting pitchers, and game run totals to give you a good idea of where the fantasy goodness might come from on a given night. As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than they are in real life due to matchup, price, park factor, etc. This is important when constructing a roster.
The best advice we can give if you’re new to DFS MLB is to remember that baseball is a game of variance. You can make a really solid lineup and still fall short of the cash line. Even the best pitchers have horrible starts, and the best hitters in the game can still go 0 for 4. Baseball is funny like that. Trust the process and know that if you’re playing quality lineups, you’ll be a winner in the long term.
Another thing to remember outside of making sure your guy is in the lineup, is to always check the weather. Always. Make this something that is part of your basic routine. Baseball games can get postponed! Your players receive no points from postponed games!
5/3/17 MAIN SLATE TOURNAMENT RUNDOWN
DraftKings Fastball: $33 buy-in, $215k guaranteed
DraftKings Four Seamer: $4 buy-in, $75k guaranteed (20 entry max)
DraftKings Crazy 8’s: $8 buy-in, $350k guaranteed
FanDuel Monster: $333 buy-in, $150k guaranteed
FanDuel Rally: $9 buy-in, $99k guaranteed
FanDuel Squeeze: $4 buy-in, $175k guaranteed
Best DFS MLB Pitchers for May 3, 2017
Jake Arrieta vs. PHI ($10.9k DraftKings, $10.1k FanDuel)
While he predictably struggled at Fenway Park in a very tough matchup, Arrieta is an easy bounce back candidate in tonight’s matchup against the lowly Phillies. Philadelphia posted the lowest collective wOBA (.296) in the Majors last season and is sporting the sixth-highest K-Rate (23.3%) so far this year. Current Phillies are just 10-for-47 (.213) with 19 K’s in their careers against Arrieta, who posted a 2.62 ERA with a 10.38 K/9 ratio at home last year. His 3.23 SIERA and 3.22 xFIP are much more reasonable than his current 4.66 ERA, so things should start to improve. One thing to note is Arrieta’s velocity is off a full 2 mph from last year, so we’ll be monitoring closely as that is never a good sign.
Jacob deGrom @ ATL ($10.4k DraftKings, $11k FanDuel)
Probably the safest elite SP between Arrieta, Carrasco and Stroman tonight, deGrom faces a Braves lineup that doesn’t offer much behind red-hot lefty Freddie Freeman. Yet Friendly Freddie is just 4-for-22 (.182) with 7 K’s in his career against deGrom, who has posted a 25.2% K-Rate in his career against the Braves and was more consistent with a .237 BAA and 2.95 FIP when facing lefties last year. He’s off to a great start this season and just handled a much tougher matchup in the league-leading Nationals, so he can be trusted against a mediocre Braves offense. The Mets offense should be able to get to opposing pitcher Bartolo Colon as well, giving deGrom (-127 favorite) a decent shot at the win bonus.
Antonio Senzatela @ SD: ($6.2k DraftKings, $6.7k FanDuel)
Rockies pitchers often post poor numbers and have fluctuating price tags because of the added Run Factor in their home ballpark, but that can become an exploitable factor when they move to other venues, such as one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in MLB in Petco Park. Senzatela has been solid with a 2.81 ERA and 48.5% Ground Ball Rate and even if he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, he’s capable of posting a Quality Start and waiting for run support against washed up veteran Jered Weaver tonight. The Padres are also sporting the third-lowest batting average (.206) along with a 22% K-Rate against lefties this year.
Other pitchers to consider: Carlos Carrasco, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzija, Julio Urias, Jameson Taillon
Best DFS MLB Hitters for May 3, 2017
Mookie Betts vs. BAL ($5.2k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)
He hasn’t flashed much upside lately, but continues to produce, and Betts’ price tag on FanDuel is a bit of a head scratcher in this matchup. The Red Sox host a RHP in Kevin Gausman, who has really struggled at Fenway over the past few seasons and is currently sporting the second-worst ERA (7.50) along with a 6.07 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 ratio through 6 starts this year. Betts happens to be 10-for-23 with 3 HR in his career against Gausman and coincidentally enough has demolished Orioles pitching for the most part in his career.
Ryan Zimmerman vs. ARI ($4.7k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)
Diamondbacks LHP Robbie Ray is in the midst of a great start to his season, but he could run into a buzzsaw tonight in the form of a Nationals lineup that’s sporting a collective .475 wOBA and .336 ISO Mark against lefties this year. Zimmerman’s revival has been a big part of that, as he’s 7-for-15 with 3 HR off LHP and crushing it overall with a .474/.500/1.105 slash line and 7 homers over his last 10 appearances.
Josh Harrison @ CIN ($3.8k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)
Harrison homered yet again on Tuesday to make it 3 bombs over his last 2 games and tonight he faces Rookie Davis, who is sporting a very rough 11.17 ERA with a 25% HR/FB ratio over 3 Major League outings. A couple of seasons ago, Harrison was a very big contributor with a .315 batting average to go along with 13 HR, 77 RBI and 18 SB and he appears to have made the proper adjustments to produce on a similar level this season. We’ll see if he can maintain the blistering pace of his .378/.415/.703 slash line over his last 10 appearances.
Other hitters to consider: Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Altuve, Mike Moustakas, Brian McCann, Andrew Benintendi, Jedd Gyorko, Mark Reynolds, Khris Davis, Josh Bell
5/3/17 DFS MLB STACKS
Rockies vs Jered Weaver
Weaver’s tenure in the MLB is quite tenuous at the age of 34 and the spacious confines of Petco Park can only cover up so many mistakes. Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds stand out as two sluggers that could easily take Weaver out of that ballpark considering he’s giving up a 3.14 HR/9 ratio with a 7.29 FIP so far this season. Charlie Blackmon is expensive, but could serve as the head of this stack while Ian Desmond is adding a new dimension to Colorado’s lineup and Carlos Gonzalez will be worth a look as well.
Royals vs Mike Pelfrey
Kansas City has really struggled to score runs so far this season, but the Royals face such a vulnerable pitcher tonight that they’re very much worth considering as a stack. White Sox RHP Mike Pelfrey has been touched up for 5 ER on 10 hits with 5 walks and just 3 K’s over two starts this season and sports a 65-92 record with a 4.57 ERA throughout his career. Current Royals are batting .395 (49-for-124) with Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain leading the charge with positive splits against the righty. Alex Gordon is also worth a look despite his recent struggles and Whit Merrifield will see a boost if he leads off again.
Red Sox vs Kevin Gausman
Boston’s bats came alive to an extent in last night’s 5-2 win and they have a chance to keep rolling in a matchup against the aforementioned Kevin Gausman tonight. Gausman posted a 4.32 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 1.59 HR/9 ratio on the road last season and he’s 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA over his last 6 appearances at Fenway Park. Mookie Betts is the most dangerous hitter, but Hanley Ramirez has plenty of pop and Xander Bogaerts is coming alive as a leadoff hitter for the Sawks. I might prefer to use rigties in this matchup, but Andrew Benintendi is also a great cash game play and worth adding to this stack.
Other Stacks to consider:
Nationals vs. Robbie Ray
Pirates vs. Rookie Davis
Astros vs. Nick Martinez
Blue Jays vs. C.C. Sabathia
