DFS NBA Quick Notes for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups on March 7, 2017
We’ve got a very short DFS NBA slate on 3/7/17 with just three games on tap in The Association. Short slate play does change overall strategy quite a bit, so if you find yourself with some extra time today, watch this strategy video and try and apply some of the things talked about in the chat.
Before we get going, I’d like to say that hopefully last night wasn’t a complete disaster for you over at DraftKings and FanDuel. We preach regularly on the site about the importance of keeping a close eye on the NBA news as it breaks throughout the day. To take it a step further, you really need to be paying attention the last hour before lineup lock as that’s when teams make their final decisions on questionable players. Processing the information that drops during that hour is critical to success in DFS NBA.
Then, there’s something like yesterday. The Target Center held Disney on Ice on Sunday at the arena. They are also set to host some college hockey this week. So, like many arenas in the same situation, they just dropped the basketball court on top of the ice for the Timberwolves/Blazers game scheduled for last night. Only problem, something went awry in the ‘keep the ice cold’ department, and water made its way from under the court, to on top of it. Players complained of the conditions, and after they realized they had no shot at mopping up the wetness, the game was postponed. What happens in DFS if a game is postponed? You do not accumulate any points for players appearing in that game. So, if you had Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, Ricky Rubio, or any other Timberwolf or Blazer still in your lineups at lock, you took a zero. Just a reminder that sometimes it’s things beyond just injury news that breaks right before lock and you’ve got to be on the lookout and make lineup adjustments accordingly.
Ok, on to tonight. At DraftKings there’s a $315k guarantee Four Point Play with a 20 entry max. There’s also a $20 buy-in Shootaround with $400k in the prize pool. At FanDuel, the Enormous Shot is going down. It’s a $6 buy-in with $660k in the guarantee. They also have a $7 qualifier to their live final.
As opposed to breaking down the different tiers of plays on a three-game slate, I’ll just write up some notes and thoughts that I think might be helpful as you construct your lineups tonight. And as always, pay attention to the injury news (and melting ice on court news) that breaks throughout the day as value plays can arise at a moments notice.
INJURY NEWS TO MONITOR
Victor Oladipo (back)
Allen Crabbe (leg)
Larry Nance (wrist)
Ivica Zubac (quad)
NBA GAME SPREADS, TOTALS & START TIME FOR TODAY’S GAMES
Blazers @ Thunder -6 (8:00p): 221.5
Lakers @ Mavericks -10 (8:30p): 205
Wizards -4.5 @ Suns (9:00p): 227.5
DFS NBA NEWS & NOTES FOR MARCH 7, 2017
– Evan Turner remains out for the Blazers, but it targeting a March 15 return from his broken hand. His replacement, Mo Harkless, has played at least 30 minutes in six of the Blazers last seven games, reaching at least 24 DK points in those games. He’s $5.3k on DK tonight, but just $4.8k on FanDuel.
– Since joining the Blazers on February 15, Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 30 minutes per game, to go with a line of 14.5/8.2/4. He’s also averaging 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks. That, is #good. He’s topped 32 DK points in four of his last five, including a 44 and 55 DK point games.
– The biggest question that will need to be answered tonight is whether or not you can make a lineup you feel good about that includes Russell Westbrook. He’s $13.4k on DraftKings and $13.1k on FanDuel. If you fade him, you have to pray for a floor game (which is still a ridiculous 50 DK points) and have your PG of choice (Wall, Lillard, Bledsoe, Russell) get there, and then your overall lineup benefit from the upgrades you were able to make at the other positions with the money you saved. Keep in mind, any PG other than Westbrook brings a ceiling that is basically his floor for tonight. I’ll probably have 40% Westbrook and 60% some combination of the other guys.
– The Lakers/Mavericks game has the lowest total, biggest spread, slowest pace, and the only game lacking a true stud (the highest priced player on either team at DK is D’Angelo Russell at $7k). On a full slate, this would be a game we’d just cross off our list. However, as mentioned above, on a short slate we need to zig when others zag. If you’re a multiple lineup player, I think it’d be wise to target this game in at least a few of your lineups. IF this game somehow finds a way to shootout, and one of the other two games dud, then you’re going to find yourself rocketing up the leaderboard. Also, Dirk Nowitzki needs 20 points to reach 30,000 career points. They are at home. Just saying.
– At DraftKings, you can run a five-man game stack from Lakers/Mavericks, still fit John Wall, and round out your lineup with a couple guys that won’t make you puke. I’ve done it. I’m yet to puke.
– Our highest game total goes to Wizards/Suns, with the Wizards (115 pts) slightly edging out the Thunder (114 pts) in implied team total. This is a very nice pace up spot for the Wizards who project to see more possessions and attempts in what Vegas thinks will be the closest game of the night.
– Fun fact, John Wall has hit the 60+ DK point mark twice in his last six games. And in those six games, he’s not played fewer than 34 minutes and is likely to see 36+ tonight.
– Alan Williams has seen his DK price explode to $6.7k on the heels of an amazing stretch of games since the end of February. Williams has gone for 48.75, 20.75, 36, 40.25, and 36.75 DK points over his last five, posting a double-double in four of those games. More importantly to DFS, his minutes seem to be solidified to at least 25, with 30 minute upside. It’s a plus matchup to boot, for a guy that’s well over a fantasy point per minute. At FanDuel, don’t even think about it. He’s a mere $5.5k.
– Where to save? Taj Gibson ($4.2k FD, $3.9k DK) will be popular and showed a little upside, scoring 33 DK points against this Blazers team on March 2. There were foul trouble issues for the Thunder that led to Gibson getting 32 minutes in that game. That said, it’s not out of the realm of outcomes for Gibson to 5.5x his salary. The other place to save is Tyler Ulis at just $4.6k on DraftKings. He’s been on fire, but know, you will not be alone. Projections around the industry have Ulis pulling upwards of 40% ownership. And finally, if you love going on uber tilt, you can roster Nick Young with me tonight. If we want multiple studs, we’re going to have to take a chance on one of these boom or bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust players. Young is going to jack up at least 8 three point attempts, and 10+ total shots. He’s $4k on DraftKings and if he can somehow get his shot to fall, he’ll blow past 5x salary and 6-7x isn’t out of the question. He’s done it multiple times over his last 11 games.