I don’t know about you all but it literally feels like yesterday we were talking about the Fall Swing and the start of the 2015-16 PGA season. Time has been flying by as we now welcome the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs.
This year, the Barclays will be hosted at Bethpage Black in Farmingdale, New York. Just hearing that course name brings back many fond memories of the 2009 U.S. Open. Me and a few friends ended up staying at a sketchy hotel in downtown Jamaica where we may or may not have been very close to being mugged, approached by prostitutes and saved by cab driver who gave us a ride home on ‘credit’ because we forgot our wallets at Jones beach.
Regardless, it ended up being an amazing time and a great tournament for golf fans as my boy Lucas Glover took home the victory. Anyway, I suppose we should get to the picks this week.
Bethpage State Park (Black) is a par 71 course that measures just under 7,500 yards. Something else to keep in mind this week is that even though it is a smaller field, it is still the usually top 70 & ties will make the cut. AKA it’s a Justin Thomas type of week…
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better Conversion %
Greens in Regulation %
Driving Distance
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Dustin Johnson $11,900
Odds To Win: 9-1
Expected Ownership: 22%
Dustin Johnson has eight top five finishes in his last 13 starts on TOUR including the two back to back wins in June. DJ ranks in the top 20 in SG:Approach, third in SG:T2G and second in Birdie or Better Conversion %. We know he has the length and scoring to compete here and he also had a top 3 finish back in 2012.
Brooks Koepka $10,100
Odds To Win: 28-1
Expected Ownership: 16%
Brooks is another bomber that is an excellent scorer. He is also a very talented putter which should help him convert more birdie opportunities this week. Brooks is coming into this week with back to back top 10 finishes and four in his last six starts. He is ranked sixth in SG:Off-The-Tee and is top 10 in both SG:Putting and Birdie or Better Conversion % this season.
Rickie Fowler $9,300
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Rickie has certainly been risky during the second half of the season. That being said, Fowler still has elite upside when his game is on point and assuming we can get him under 10% ownership this week, I want that all day. Rickie ranks 16th in GIR% this season and is fifth in SG:T2G and SG:Around-The-Green. Fowler serves as an excellent under the radar option this week.
Value Plays:
Paul Casey $7,800
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Casey is coming into this week with top 20 finishes in three of his last four starts on TOUR. Casey ranks in the top 25 in SG:T2G and SG:Approach this season. He is also 13th in GIR% and if his putter gets hot, I can very easily see him contending this week.
Kevin Na $7,300
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
While Kevin Na is certainly not the longest hitter off the tee, he has proven time and time again that he can compete even on the longer courses. Na is coming into this week with top 30 finishes in six straight starts and most recently back to back top 10s. He is priced $500 less than Paul Casey but has better odds to win so it is easy to identify value here. He ranks third in SG:Approach this season.
Daniel Berger $6,900
Odds To Win: 70-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Berger put to rest any shoulder worries with a top five finish at the Travelers his last time out. When he is locked in, there are few golfers that are able to score like him. Berger ranks 36th in SG:T2G this season. He is also top 25 in SG:Approach and Par Breakers. He has elite upside and his price allows you some salary relief to be able to pay up for the heavy hitters.
My Core: Brooks, Fowler, Casey, Berger
Top Fade: Henrik Stenson
Winner: Probably Rory since this is maybe the first event all season where I haven’t mentioned him…
