Now that the season’s final major is over, the PGA TOUR heads to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship.
TPC River Highlands is a par 70 course that measures 6,841 yards. This is much shorter than the 7,400 yard beast that was the PGA Championship last week. Also, TPC Highlands has hosted the Travelers Championship since 1984 so course history is finally more relevant this week again.
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better Conversion %
Greens in Regulation %
Par 4 Scoring
Proximity 125-150 yards
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Bubba Watson $12,400
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 32%
Without a doubt, Bubba will be the most popular golfer this week. It is hard to argue with his track record here. He owns two wins here and five top 6 finishes in the last eight seasons. He is ranked eighth in SG:T2G this season and is 18th in GIR %. With all that being said, he makes for a great fade from a game theory standpoint in GPPs with the expected high ownership.
Webb Simpson $10,000
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Webb is coming into this week with four top 15 finishes in his last six starts including a T13 at the PGA Championship last week. Simpson hasn’t played here the past two seasons but he does have a pair of top 15s in six starts. He ranks 26th in SG:Around-The-Green and top 15 in SG:T2G and SG:Approach this season. He is also seventh in the key range of proximity from 125-150 yards.
Jon Rahm $9,800
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
In a short period of time as a PGA TOUR professional, Rahm has already established himself as a force to be reckoned with. He is coming off a runner up finish at the RBC Canadian which is his third top 10 in only five starts this season. He is very strong off the tee and an excellent putter which should be a recipe for success this week.
VALUE PLAYS:
Charley Hoffman $8,100
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Hoffman will come in at a lower ownership than he should this week after missing the cut at the PGA Championship and the late withdraw at the RBC Canadian before that. All things aside, this is a great bounce back spot for Hoffman and he comes in a little underpriced as well. He has a solid course history here finishing in the top 30 in four of six tries including two top 10s. He is ranked in the top 35 in SG:T2G and Proximity from 125-150 yards this season.
Ryan Moore $7,800
Odds To Win: 55-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
[quote]He has five top 10s here in nine starts, including two runner up finishes.[/quote]
This is definitely more of a course history play than anything else as Moore always seems to play well at the Travelers Championship. He has five top 10s here in nine starts including two runner up finishes. He is ranked 31st this season in SG:Putting. The only thing keeping him from being extremely popular this week is his lack of recent form. I consider him a somewhat risky play with high upside this week.
Keegan Bradley $7,600
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
It is always an interesting week when Keegan Bradley is a strong recommendation. Bradley has made all five cuts at TPC Highlands highlighted by a top 20 three years ago. He sets up very well this week as he ranks in the top 30 in SG:T2G, Proximity from 125-150 yards and SG:Approach this season. He is also top 10 in GIR %. If his putter can get hot, watch out for Keegan this week!
Chad Campbell $6,200
Odds To Win 90-1
Expected Ownership: 6.5%
Campbell has finished inside the top 40 in six consecutive starts heading into this week. His most recent finish was T26 at the RBC Canadian Open. He has three top 15 finishes at the Travelers Championship in nine starts. He ranks 28th in SG:T2G this season and is 22nd in SG:Around-The-Green. His price allows you to fit more of the top-tier guys in your lineup.
My Core: Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, Keegan Bradley
Top Fade: Bubba Watson (GPP), Brendan Grace
Winner: Ryan Moore!!!!
