If you want to become a DraftKings PGA millionaire, then this may be your last chance this season. We have reached our final major already and now it is time for the PGA Championship!
This season, the PGA Championship will be hosted at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, New Jersey. The Lower Course at Baltusrol Golf Club is a par 70 course that measures 7,426 yards.
Because of it’s length, this course generally favors the longer hitters but accuracy still plays an integral role of success here.
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better Conversion %
Par 3 Scoring
Scrambling
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rory McIlroy $11,400
Odds To Win: 9-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Rory has five top 5 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide. He finished T5 at the Open Championship and I think he improves on that this week. He is a former PGA Championship winner just two seasons ago and is always a threat to take it home. He ranks fourth in Total Driving this season and is first on TOUR in Birdie Average.
Sergio Garcia $9,400
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
I feel like Sergio now lives in the $tud play category. He has been extremely consistent and yet still so affordable compared to other elite talents. After his T5 at the Open Championship, he now has five top 5 finishes in his last six starts. He is going to be the chalk but it is hard to pass on him this week. I suggest eating it and trying to differentiate with some of the lower guys this week.
Rickie Fowler $9,200
Odds To Win: 30-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Fowler is certainly a risk this week with his recent form being nowhere near as good as earlier this season. As a result, you are likely to get him at a huge ownership discount and he still possesses a ton of upside. Statistically, he sets up very nicely this week. He ranks 20th in Total Driving, 12th in SG:Around-The-Green and T5 in Par 4 Scoring this season.
VALUE PLAYS:
Zach Johnson $8,400
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
I think some people will be off ZJ because he is not one of the longer hitters off the tee. However, he has proven time and time again that he is capable of competing on longer courses due to his exceptional accuracy and ball striking ability. He has finished no worse than T12 in the past two majors and he ranks in the top 25 in Par 3 Scoring and SG:Around-The-Green.
JB Holmes $7,700
Odds To Win: 60-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
JB should serve as an excellent play at under 8k this week. He is a bomber off the tee ranking second on TOUR in Driving Distance so he has the distance to compete here. He is fresh off a solo third at the Open Championship and he ranks fifth in Birdie or Better Conversion % this season.
Steve Stricker $7,000
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
I think whenever a course favors bombers, an interesting strategy to use is to target golfers that are the complete opposite as long as there is reason to. For example, this course favors length but accuracy is arguably just as important and scrambling will be key as well. You can take a guy like Stricker (two top 5s in last three starts) who has a superb short game ranking first on TOUR in Scrambling and T2 in SG:Putting this season and get him at suppressed ownership. Stricker is also ranked 12th in Par 3 Scoring this season and is T5 in Par 4 Scoring so he is most certainly in play this week.
Gary Woodland $6,700
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Until they raise Woodland’s price in these tougher fields, I am going to consider him a must play especially at a longer course. Additionally, Woodland has the same odds to win as Jim Furyk and Lee Westwood but is priced 1K less? Anyway, Woodland is a top 25 machine this season and has three top 12 finishes in his last five starts including a T12 at the Open Championship. He ranks in the top 10 in Driving Distance, 14th in SG:T2G and 22nd in SG:Approach this season.
My Core: Rory, Spieth, Sergio, ZJ and Woodland
Top Fade: Louis Oosthuizen
Winner: RORY!
