Ladies and Gents, another huge week of PGA TOUR golf is upon us. The 2016 U.S. Open is finally here!
With the U.S. Open, comes another massive tournament on DraftKings where the winner will be awarded $1 Million. It gives me chills just thinking about it…
Anyway, the U.S. Open will be held at Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, PA. On a side note, I am from PA so if you’re looking for a little narrative street there you go.
Oakmont Country Club is a par 70 course that measures 7,257 yards. I am sure you have seen by now the videos surfacing around about just how ridiculous the greens are at Oakmont. Keep in mind, there is a chance that the expected rain can slow these greens down and make them a bit more manageable. That being said, prepare to tilt this week as many of our golfers may be finishing over Par.
KEY STATS:
Total Driving
Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jason Day $12,100
Odds To Win: 6.5-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
Odds To Win: 6.5-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
I shouldn’t have to tell you why Day is a good pick this week. He is the number one golfer in the world and when conditions are tough, it is hard not to like Jason. He has two wins in his last six starts on TOUR. Day is ranked 3rd in Par 4 Scoring this season and is 1st in SG:Putting. He will be one of the highest owned guys this week and it is hard to argue with.
Rory Mcllroy $12,000
Odds To Win: 7.5-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Odds To Win: 7.5-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
From an ownership perspective, Rory may be the best play on the board. He is probably going to be the most overlooked out of the bigger names. He has yet to win on TOUR this season, but he is coming into this week with some good form. He won the Irish Open last month and followed it up with a T4 at Memorial. Rory is ranked 1st on TOUR in SG:Off-The-Tee and is 7th in Total Driving. He is also top 25 in GIR% and SG:Around-the-Green. ALL THE RORY!
Jordan Spieth $11,900
Odds To Win: 8.5-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Odds To Win: 8.5-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
The defending U.S. Open champ hasn’t finished worse than 4th in his last five majors. Everyone always talks about Spieth’s mentality and it will be tested in full at Oakmont. He was runner up at the Masters and won at the Dean & DeLuca three weeks ago. He is ranked 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in SG:Around-The-Green and 9th in SG:Putting.
The Next Tier…
Patrick Reed $8,400
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Reed has been a top 10 machine this season. It is only a matter of time before he breaks through and it could be here at Oakmont. Reed is ranked 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Scrambling and 1st in SG:Around-The-Green. He has been playing good golf all season long and his Scrambling should be able to give him a sizable edge over the field. He is a great pivot off Matt Kuchar at $8500.
Brooks Koepka $8,100
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
After an up and down start to the season, Brooks has been hot fire recently. He lost in a playoff to Sergio at the Byron Nelson last month and followed it up with another runner up at the St. Jude last week. He is ranked 5th in SG:Off-The-Tee and in Par 4 Scoring this season. He is also 36th in GIR% and 37th in SG:Putting. He fits the course and is coming in with red hot form. He is clearly underpriced and will be my highest owned golfer this week.
Charl Schwartzel $7,500
Odds To Win: 70-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Odds To Win: 70-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Schwartzel is a clear value this week under 8k. He won at the Valspar and twice on the Euro TOUR earlier this season. He is coming into this week with back to back top 25 finishes. He is ranked 15th in Par 4 Scoring and is top 10 in both SG:T2G and SG:Approach. He fits almost every statistical category that you want this week and at his price, he is hard to ignore.
More Value:
Retief Goosen $6,300
Odds To Win: 150-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Odds To Win: 150-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
The Goose is coming into this week with three straight top 15 finishes. He always seems to play well at courses where nobody else does. His price is just way too cheap this week. He is ranked 7th in SG:Around-The-Green and 16th in SG:Putting. Like I said, too cheap.
David Toms $6,300
Odds To Win: 300-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Odds To Win: 300-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
The old man still got it! Toms is fresh off of back to back top 30 finishes and could make it a third this week. His accuracy should come in handy with the rough being so bad this week. Toms is ranked 12th in Scrambling this season, top 25 in SG:Approach and 8th in SG:Around-The-Green. Another golfer that is too cheap and allows you to pay up for the big names.
Lucas Glover $6,200
Odds To Win: 200-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Odds To Win: 200-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
I was fortunate enough to see Glover win the 2009 U.S. Open at Bethpage in New York and it was glorious. Glover’s form has been up and down lately but he fits the course nicely this week and is simply underpriced. He is ranked 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Total Driving and 2nd in GIR% this season. One of the best values on the board this week, book it!
