If you didn’t enjoy the Mcgirt vs Curran playoff last week at the Memorial then trust me, you weren’t alone. I had a miserable week of PGA DFS (terrible or lack of TV coverage made it worse) and would like to move on to this week immediately! It’s time to bounce back and kick it into gear here as the US Open is quickly approaching next week! But before all that milly talk, we have the St. Jude Classic this week and pricing is very difficult so things could get interesting.
The St. Jude Classic is held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. This is a par 70 course that measures 7,244 yards. This is another course that stresses the importance of the second shot so we will definitely be looking at SG:Approach as a key indicator of success this week along with putting and scrambling.
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better Conversion %
GIR %
SG:Approach-The-Green
Scrambling
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
DUSTIN JOHNSON $12,800
Odds To Win: 6-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Odds To Win: 6-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
When, oh when is Dustin going to get his Win this season? The answer is – I have no clue. But DJ has the best chance to run away with this tournament considering the strength of the field. He is absolutely killing it this season with six top 10s. He has made every cut this season and has only finished outside of the top 20 twice. He ranks 10th in SG:Approach this season and is 2nd in Par 4 Scoring and Birdie or Better conversion %. He is also a former winner here in 2012 and is coming off a T3 last week at Memorial. He is going to get a Win soon and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if it comes this week.
Phil Mickelson $11,300
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
It was nice to see Phil have a solid week at the Memorial finishing T20. He sets up nicely again this week ranking fourth this season in SG:Approach and he is also fifth in SG:Putting and ninth in Birdie or Better Conversion %. He has the history here to back that up as well with two top 5 finishes in his last 3 starts at TPC Southwind. The “Week before a major” narrative will be in full effect this week so make sure you get a piece!
The Next Tier….
Harris English $9,900
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Harris English is a former winner here in 2013 and is coming off a second place finish his last time out at the Dean & Deluca. His stats don’t pop out in any of the key areas this week aside from being 12th in SG:Putting this season. This pick is more of a course history meets current form play as English fired all four rounds in the 60s at Colonial including a 64-66 weekend. Look for him to keep that momentum going moving forward at a course that he feels comfortable at.
Charles Howell III
Odds To Win: 45-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
Odds To Win: 45-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
What a roller coaster last week was for CH3 owners. Chucky three sticks had 15 birdies and two eagles over the course of his four rounds last week. However, he couldn’t stop dropping shots! He also carded 12 bogeys and a double which kept him from making any real noise at Memorial. That being said, he presents himself as a solid option with upside this week in such a week field. He ranks in the top 30 in both GIR% and Scrambling and is 15th in Par 4 Scoring.
Value Plays:
Chad Campbell $7,800
Odds To Win: 75-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Odds To Win: 75-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Campbell has quietly been an excellent DraftKings play for the better half of this season. Campbell shot all four rounds in the 60s at Byron Nelson to finish T12 and backed it up last time out with a top 10 that included a 63 on Sunday at Colonial. He ranks 40th in GIR% and is top 30 in SG:Around-The-Green. He has solid course history here including a top 10 finish last year and a T3 in 2012.
David Toms $7,600
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
It’s hard not to root for the old man especially because he is still a very talented golfer. Toms is a former winner here but because it was so long ago, I wouldn’t put too much weight into that. I do, however, like the way that he sets up this week. Toms ranks 26th in SG:Approch and 7th in SG:Around-The-Green this season. He is also ranked 32nd in Par 4 Scoring and 16th in Scrambling. At his price, he is a solid play in both cash and tournaments even with the spotty course history.
