Last week’s Dean & Deluca Invitational had me on the edge of my couch while watching Jordan Spieth muster up some magic on the back nine to claim this year’s title. Jordan’s putter got red hot and it was all but over for Harris English. We should be in store for another eventful week as the PGA TOUR heads to Muirfield Village GC in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial!
Muirfield Village GC is a par 72 course that measures nearly 7,400 yards. While doing my initial research for this week, I stumbled across some interesting information. If you look at the results of last year’s Memorial leaderboard and compare it to this year’s Career Builder Challenge, the results are strikingly similar.
This had me very interested so I went back through the past four years of both the Memorial and Career Builder (formerly known as the Humana Challenge) and the results are so close it’s shocking. That being said, remember the Career Builder has a multi-course layout where the tournament is played on multiple different courses so take that for what it’s worth. I just thought that it was very interesting that the same players and style of players repeatedly play well and show up at both tournaments. It could be an interesting angle this week.
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better Conversion %
GIR %
Par Breakers
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jason Day $12,400
Odds To Win: 6-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
It is almost impossible to dislike Jason Day on any course regardless of what type of history he has there. Fresh off a win, you would think that everybody would gravitate towards Day but because Spieth and Rory just won also and the field is packed, so we could see Day’s ownership below 20%. I personally will not be going heavy on Day but if I had to play just one of the top three guys, he is it. Day ranks 5th in Par Breakers, 4th in Birdie or Better Conversion % and is 1st on TOUR in SG:Putting.
Hideki Matsuyama $10,600
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 28%
The only reason I don’t think Hideki reaches 30% this week is because the always popular, Rickie Fowler is directly below him. Matsuyama won this event two years ago and it is easy to see why. His game sets up perfectly for this course. Matsuyama ranks 2nd in Par Breakers, 3rd in Birdier or Better %, 11th in GIR %, and 3rd in SG:Approach which should also help him this week. He is coming into this week with four straight top 11 finishes and defending his 2014 win here with a T5 last season.
Dustin Johnson $10,100
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Dustin Johnson is another golfer that sets up nicely this week. DJ has been playing excellent golf this week as he has finished outside of the top 15 just once in his last six starts and that was his T28 finish at the Players. He has three top 5 finishes during that span. He ranks 7th in SG:T2G, 3rd in Par Breakers and 2nd in Birdie or Better Conversion % this season.
The Next Tier…
Matt Kuchar $9,900
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 22%
Kuchar is arguably the hottest golfer on TOUR right now coming in with four top 10s in his past five starts and contending almost every week it seems. Kuchar also has a very strong course history here with multiple top 5 finishes here including his win in 2013. He ranks in the top 25 in Birdie or Better Conversion % and Par Breakers.
Phil Mickelson $9,100
Odds To Win: 45-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
I feel like this is an excellent week to get on Phil when most people probably won’t be. Phil’s form has been up and down recently, but altogether he is having a great season with four top 10 finishes including a top 5 at Wells Fargo a few weeks ago. He ranks in the top 10 in Birdie or Better Conversion %, Par Breakers and SG:Approach. He is also 3rd in SG:Putting this season. He is an excellent pivot in GPPs and that is pretty crazy to say considering how popular he usually is. It is going to be pretty funny when he wins this week and hardly anyone is on him 😉
Jason Dufner $8,400
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
I am going to be heavy on Jason Dufner this week. He hasn’t let me down the past two weeks with back to back top 25s and the T6 last week. Dufner has a brief but solid history here with back to back top 25s at this event. He ranks 10th in GIR %, and is top 20 in Par Breakers and SG:Approach. He is a lock for me in both cash and GPPs.
More Value…
Kevin Na $8,100
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
After Kevin Na’s last two starts have left more to be desired, this is the perfect week to get back on him. He sets up very well here in everything that I am looking for and is very affordable. He ranks in the top 25 in Birdier or Better %, Par Breakers and is 7th in SG:Approach. Na was runner up here in 2014 and had a top 15 here last season. He is almost a must play at this price.
Bill Haas $7,700
Odds To Win: 75-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Haas is arguably my favorite play this week. He is way underpriced considering how well his game sets up at this course and he has backed it up with three straight top 20s here including two top 10 finishes. He is coming into this week with some uninspiring finishes last week and at the Byron Nelson but you could expect that to change this week. Haas is an excellent iron player and if his putter ever starts to come around this season like it did at Valspar, watch out!
Charles Howell III $7,400
Odds To Win: 110-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
CH3 is BACK! Did he ever leave? I mean nobody really expected him to play well at Wells Fargo or the Players did they? Anyway, Chucky 3 sticks is fresh off a top 5 at the Byron Nelson and sets up very nicely this week. He is way too cheap and is a lock for cash games which will allow you to get some heavy hitters up top. He ranks in the top 25 in Par Breakers and SG:Around-The-Green. He doesn’t have great course history here but does have a couple top 25s here.
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know!
