Another drama filled Sunday is in the books at the Byron Nelson last week as Brooks Koepka crumbled down the stretch to lose in a playoff to Sergio Garcia. On the bright side, Brooks Koepka proved that he is still a force this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention once again in the coming weeks.
This week, we head to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the 2016 Dean & Deluca Invitational. Colonial CC is a par 70 course that measures just over 7,200 yards and is primarily known as a ball striker’s course much like the Players a few weeks ago so irons and putting are going to be key this week.
KEY STATS:
Ball Striking
Birdie or Better Conversion %
Par 4 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Matt Kuchar $11,000
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
Kuchar is an elite play in all formats this week. He is coming into this week with top 25s in four of his last five starts including back to back 3rd place finishes. He has a very strong course history here with a handful of top 30 finishes and was runner up here in 2013. Matt also ranks 33rd in Birdie or Better Conversion % and 12th in Par 4 Scoring this season.
Charley Hoffman $10,400
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
I’m convinced that nobody likes to pay this much for Charley Hoffman except me. I like seeing him priced this high because that will keep his ownership much lower than it should be especially with all the popular plays he is surrounded by. I’m still going to ride or die with Charley being that he sets up well here and he is playing some great golf. Take away his missed cut at the players and his worst finish in his past 8 starts was a T33 at the Shell and I believe he was first round leader but choked the weekend (don’t quote me). Anyway, Hoffman owns three top 20s in his last four starts here including a personal best T10 last season.
Kevin Chappell $9,600
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Originally, I though Chappell’s ownership may be too high for tournaments but because of where he is priced it should stay under 20%. Regardless, it’s hard not to like this guy this week. This is generally a ball striker’s course and that suits Chappell’s game well. He ranks 31st in Ball Striking this season and is 33rd in Par 4 Scoring. He has four top 10 finishes in his last six starts including both runner up finishes to Jason Day at Arnold Palmer and again last time out at the Players. He just keeps contending so you have to believe he gets his soon.
The Next Tier…
Kevin Na $9,200
Odds To Win: 33-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Kevin Na has been a bit up and down lately but this is a good spot for him to get back on track here at a course that fits his style of play. Na ranks 26th this season in Birdie or Better Conversion % and is 3rd in Par 4 Scoring. He is coming off a missed cut at the Players after a T4 at RBC Heritage. He was also the 54-hole leader here last season before melting on Sunday in typical Kevin Na fashion.
Danny Lee $8,800
Odds To Win: 33-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Another week, another great opportunity to have heavy exposure to Danny Lee. Lee is coming off a T18 last week at the Byron Nelson and is a good bet to have a nice showing this week as well. Lee ranks in the top 25 in Birdie or Better Conversion % and had a top 10 here last season.
Bill Haas $8,700
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Whenever you think of good iron players, Bill Haas should come to mind. Because he is priced right next to Danny Lee and Colt Knost is a couple hundred dollars cheaper, he should be somewhat overlooked this week making him an excellent pivot in GPPs. His form has been streaky but I think this is a good rebound spot on a course that he holds three top 25s at. He ranks 51st on Tour this season in Ball Striking and is 42nd in Par 4 Scoring average.
Lower Value Guys…
Bryce Molder $7,100
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 11%
Bryce Molder is playing some excellent golf during this stretch of the season and is simply way too cheap for what I expect him to be able to produce. Molder is coming into this week with top 25 finishes in four of his last five starts including three top 12s during that span. He is an excellent putter ranking 13th this season in SG:Putting. He is also 42nd in Par 4 Scoring.
Lucas Glover $6,800
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
It is always tough to get back on a guy after he has burned you the previous week. DFS requires you to have a short-term memory and I am willing back this horse again this week. Glover ranks 1st on Tour this season in Ball Striking and is 12th in Par 4 Scoring. At under 7k, he is a great bet to make the cut and possibly top 25 while allowing you to pay up for some the pricey guys this week.
Emiliano Grillo $6,700
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Speaking of getting back on guys that have burnt you, Grillo fits that bill as well this week after the disappointing showing at the Players. Anyway, I feel very confident he makes the cut with the smaller field and at his price he should exceed value fairly easily if his putting comes around. He ranks 8th in Ball Striking and 42nd in Par 4 Scoring.
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