Another Players Championship is in the books and it couldn’t have gone to a more deserving winner – Jason Day. Day dominated from Thursday through Sunday to give us a rare week without much drama, aside from the Russell Knox meltdown on 17 that is.
Anyway, this week we head back to Texas to TPC Four Seasons for the Byron Nelson AT&T Classic. This tournament holds a special place in my heart and no, not because Steven Bowditch won it last year. I was able to run good enough last season to take down a large GPP at this event and it really grew my love for golf and I couldn’t be more grateful.
Okay, back to the stuff that you actually care about…. TPC Four Seasons is a par 70 that measurse 7,166 yards. This course favors the bombers but accuracy is also important so Total Driving is going to be key this week. One thing to note is that this field does not have the same caliber as the Players (obviously) so the pricing isn’t going to be nearly as soft as last week.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Dustin Johnson $11,900
Odds To Win: 9-1
Expected Ownership: 22%
Dustin Johnson continued his hot streak last week at TPC Sawgrass even though the course wasn’t a perfect fit for him. He has 5 top 10s this season and three top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts. While Dustin certainly isn’t the most accurate player, he was able to stay out of trouble last week for the most part and I definitely think he is capable of repeating that. Also worth noting that he does have back to back top 10s at this event. He ranks 8th in SG:T2G this season and is 2nd on Tour in Birdie or Better Conversion %.
Charley Hoffman $10,800
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
If you’re looking at Hoffman’s price this week and thinking he is too expensive, well, you’d be correct. As mentioned earlier, this field is much weaker than the Players last week so don’t let the price throw you off as Hoffman is a great play this week. He has 5 top 20s in his last 8 starts including his Win at Valero. Charley also boasts a good history here with multiple top 10s including a T2 last season. He missed the cut last week on the number (missed a 6 footer for birdie on the par 5) so hopefully that will keep his ownership down along with where he is priced at.
The Next Tier…
Zach Johnson $10,200
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
ZJ still hasn’t made a ton of noise this season but you can expect that to change within the next couple weeks. It looked like last week was going to be the week where he finally popped off but a Saturday 80 halted that. Anyway, ZJ’s accuracy will definitely help him out this week and he is more than capable of making birdies in bunches. He had a T5 here last season.
Brooks Koepka $9,600
Odds To Win: 28-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Brooks started off with a fiery 66 last Thursday but faded through the weekend for an uninspiring T35. On the bright side, he won’t be the chalk this week so we should capitalize on his lower ownership while we still can, especially on a course that he can blitz. Brooks has three top 10s this season but nothing recently aside from a couple top 25s but we know what he is capable of. He is very long off the tee and ranks in the top 30 in both GIR % and Par 4 Scoring. He was T16 here last season.
Ryan Palmer $8,900
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 19%
You can expect Ryan Palmer to be a popular play this week in both cash and GPPs. He has been making cuts all season and has a handful of top 25s. He only has one top 10 this season but he does set up nicely this week. He ranks 40th in Total Driving and 21st in Birdie or Better Conversion %. He also has three top 10s at this event in his last 5 tries.
VALUE PLAYS:
Danny Lee $8,600
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Danny Lee is another guy that sets up nicely this week. He followed up his top 10 at Wells Fargo with a T35 at the Players last week. He ranks 25th on Tour in Driving Accuracy % and is 31st in Birdie or Better Conversion %. If he can get his putter going, he is going to be a force this week!
Scott Piercy $8,000
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Make it four straight top 30 finishes for Piercy as he is once again underpriced this week. This course is a great fit for Scott as he ranks 18th in Total Driving and 27th in GIR %. His ownership should stay low as always especially with the missed cut here last year but I like his upside in tournaments. Also had a top 5 here in 2013.
Lucas Glover $7,500
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If Lucas Glover could figure out how to putt, watch out Jason Day!!! Glover is coming into this week with 5 straight made cuts including a solo 8th at the Wells Fargo his last time out. He ranks 1st on Tour this season in GIR%, 7th in Par 4 Scoring and is 4th in Total Driving. At his price, I mean c’mon?
PUNT PLAY:
Steve Wheatcroft $6,300
Odds to Win: 250-1
Expected Ownership: 3%
Wheatcroft is coming into this week with 8 straight cuts made. There aren’t many juicy options in the scrub range and Wheatcrofts semi-consistent results make him worth a look in tournaments. His price allows us to pay up for the stars and if he can keep his weekend scoring down, he may be able to sneak into the top 30 or so.
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