Well, the 54-hole madness that they called the Zurich Classic is now over (thankfully) and we can move on to the Wells Fargo Championship. This week, we should be able to watch some real golf with no delays so that will be nice for a change. This is also a much stronger field this week with 14 of the top 30 golfers according to the Official World Golf Ranking.
The Wells Fargo Championship will be played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a massive par 72 course that measures over 7,500 yards, clearly favoring the longer hitters. This is the same tournament where last year, if you 4/6 through the cut and you had Rory – you cashed. He was that dominant last time here on his way to breaking multiple course and tournament records. One key stat that stuck out to me while browsing the PGA Tour media guide is that Rory “Has now played 39 consecutive par-5s in the event without a bogey.” With Par 5 Scoring being an obvious key stat to look at this week, this bodes well for the Irishmen.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rory Mcllroy $12,800
Odds To Win: 4-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
As mentioned earlier, Rory broke all sorts of records here last year including the course record with a scorching 61 on Moving Day! Aside from being a multiple winner here and defending champ, Rory owns 5 top 10s here in 6 starts. He ranks in the top 10 in SG:T2G, 5th in Par Breakers, and T1 in Par 5 Scoring. Simply put, he is not a good fade this week.
Rickie Fowler $10,900
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
RIckie Fowler is another former winner here and he sets up very nicely this week. He ranks 6th in SG:T2G, 8th in Par Breakers, and 3rd in Par 5 Scoring. He is coming off a top 20 last week and has 6 top 10 finishes this season. Rickie is a great pivot for those hoping to fade Mcllroy if you’re into that sort of thing.
VALUE PLAYS:
Hideki Mastsuyama $9,300
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Matsuyama is priced in between two popular guys this week in Phil Mickelson and JB Holmes so it will be interesting to see how that affects his ownership. Either way, Matsuyama sets up very well as usual for a golfer of his caliber. He ranks 5th in SG:T2G, 3rd in Par Breakers, and 16th in Par 5 Scoring. He is coming off back to back top 10s and is a solid play in both cash and GPPs.
Daniel Berger $8,400
Odds To Win: 35-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Berger had a nice showing here as a rookie last season with a T28. I expect him to improve on that this time around as he has been playing some great golf coming in. He has 4 straight top 20s including a T10 at the Masters. He ranks 25th in Driving Distance this season and is 36th in Par Breakers.
Gary Woodland $7,800
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Gary Woodland clearly has the length that you want here at Quail Hollow, rankings 1st on Tour in Driving Distance. He also thrives on Par 5 holes ranking 4th in Par 5 Scoring and 1st in Par 5 Birdie or Better %. He has only missed one cut in 11 starts this season and is coming off a T20 at the Zurich last week. He makes for a good pivot off Lovemark and Simpson in this range.
Brendan Steele $7,200
Odds To Win: 90-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Steele faded at the Valero shooting a combined +3 on the weekend to finish T13. That being said, he reminded us that he is a very good golfer. He sets up nicely this week and is simply too cheap at this price, almost begging us to play him. He ranks 16th in Driving Distance, 33rd in Par Breakers, 16th in Par 5 Scoring and had a top 10 here last season.
Lucas Glover $6,300
Odds To Win: 150-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Glover is yet another former winner at Quail Hollow and he is surprisingly dirt cheap this week. He finished runner up here in 2009 and then won it in 2011 along with multiple other top 30 finishes. Statistically speaking, Lucas Glover is a beast. If he ever figures out how to putt, watch out Jason Day. He ranks 37th in Driving Distance, 26th in SG:T2G, 1st in GIR %, 1st in Ball Striking, and top 25 in Par 5 Scoring. Like I said, way too cheap…
My Winner: RICKIE (it has to work one of these times)
Best of luck this week to everyone…Bring on the Green Mile!!!
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