This week, the PGA Tour heads to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana. Expect @PGABirdies to have a busy week on Twitter as this is one of the easiest par 72 courses on Tour. Course horse, Justin Rose was victorious last season after posting a tournament best 22 strokes under par.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 course that measures 7,425 yards. It features reachable par 5s and some shorter par 4 holes so you want to target guys that have the ability to score. Easy enough right? Let’s get this money!
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Justin Rose $11,800
Odds To Win: 8-1
Expected Ownership: 30%
Much like Charley Hoffman last week, this is a difficult situation to fade even with the expected high ownership. Aside from being the defending champ, Rose has a strong course history here and hasn’t finished outside of the top 17 in his past five starts this season. Rose checks all the boxes this week ranking in the top 10 in SG:T2G, Ball Striking, Birdie average, Par 5 Scoring, and is ranked 18th in Birdie or Better Percentage. You are better off just eating the chalk like last week and trying to differentiate elsewhere.
Rickie Fowler $11,100
Odds To Win: 11-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
It would be very surprising to see Fowler at his normal 20+ ownership level this week after the disappointing showing at the Masters and the less than stellar course history. That being said, he is still an elite golfer so don’t get it twisted. Prior to the missed cut at the Masters, Fowler had top 10s in six of his last seven starts. He is ranked 1st on Tour in Par 4 Scoring and Par 5 Scoring, top 5 in GIR %, Ball Striking, and 11th in Birdie Or Better Conversion %. Yeah, I’ll take him at an ownership discount for sure.
Daniel Berger $10,100
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
Berger has been playing some great golf lately with three straight finishes inside the top 11 in his last three starts. He continues our trend of targeting scorers at this course. Berger is very capable of stringing together birdies and hopefully some eagles on these gettable par 5s. He placed T6 here last season as a rookie and will be looking to improve on that this time around.
VALUE PLAYS:
Charles Howell III $8,700
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
I have been targeting CH3 pretty much all season and there is no reason to stop now. He is easily one of the most consistent guys in 2016 with his only missed cut coming at the Honda. He has 11 top 25s this season and while his history at the Zurich is up and down, he does own multiple top 10s here including a runner up finish in 2009. He is ranked in the top 25 in Going for the Green – Birdie or Better, Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring, and is 9th in Scoring Average this season.
Ben Martin $7,900
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
I always feel pretty comfortable targeting Martin on Bermuda grass. He has only played this event twice but has a top 15 here in 2014 after breaking the course record by shooting an opening round 62. He is coming off 5 straight made cuts and ranks 12 in Going for the Green – Birdie or Better and is top 25 in Par 5 Scoring.
Patrick Rodgers $7,200
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
This is strictly a tournament play as we know how hit or miss Patrick Rodgers has been this season. That being said, he is still a scorer and is underpriced considering what he is capable of. He crushes par 5s ranking in the top 30 in Par 5 Scoring and Par 4 Scoring. He is top 25 in both GIR % and Ball Striking. His putting has been holding him back significantly but he does putt better on Bermuda greens so this could be a great week to target him in tournaments.
Morgan Hoffman $6,700
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Hoffman, no not Charley, Morgan is another scorer who is capable of putting up some low numbers. He has played this event only three times but has finished no worse than T36 and is coming off a top 25 at the RBC Heritage. He ranks in the top 25 in both SG:Putting and Birdie or Better Conversion %. He is also top 10 in Par 5 Scoring, definitely worth a look at his price.
My Winner: RICKIE
Best of luck this week to everyone…Let’s get this money!!!
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