The RBC Heritage certainly did not disappoint last week as we witnessed Branden Grace hold off the likes of Luke Donald and Russell Knox. Grace will tee it up again this week along with six other golfers within the top 30 Fedex Cup standings.
This week, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is a par 72 course that measures nearly 7,450 yards. If you have been playing DFS golf for a while, last year’s Valero Open had some of the craziest winds that led to some pretty high scoring. While there are definitely some weather concerns this year, I don’t expect to see 40 mph winds so that is always a plus.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting (Extra emphasis on Putting this week), and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jimmy Walker $11,200
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
It’s hard not to like Jimmy Walker this week and not just because he won it last year. He has been having a great season with seven top 20s in 11 starts. He is an excellent putter and is ranked 4th in Par 5 Scoring this season. He makes for an interesting fade in large tournaments but should be a staple in cash games this week.
Matt Kuchar $10,700
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Kuchar is in a great spot this week once again. He has a strong track record here with four straight top 25s including a top 5 finish in 2014. He is coming into this week with top 30 finishes in 5 of his last 6 starts including two top 10s during that span. He is ranked 34th in SG:Putting this season and is top 25 in Par 5 Scoring. All the Sketchers this week!
JB Holmes $10,100
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
JB Holmes is perhaps having the greatest season that hardly anyone is talking about. He hasn’t missed a cut all year and is doing some damage on the weekends with six top 12 finishes in 8 starts. Of those 8 starts he has finished outside of the top 25 just once after shooting an 80 on Sunday at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He is ranked top 20 in Par Breakers and while his putting is hit or miss, he is still ranked 16th in One-Putt Percentage this season. Hopefully the meh course history will give us the chance to get him at an ownership discount.
VALUE PLAYS:
Charley Hoffman $9,600
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 100%
No surprise here, Hoffman will be king chalk this week. It is however, hard to ignore the fact that he crushes TPC San Antonio with no finish outside of the top 15. With that track record, it is surprising to see him priced under 10K #ThingsIThoughtIWouldNeverSayAboutCharleyHoffman. I would not recommend a complete 100% fade in tournaments but I would limit exposure only in larger fields. Reason being is whenever weather is a factor, literally anything could happen. Oh and also the fact that he has shot an average of 74.75 on every Sunday round he has played this season. If lightning strikes (no pun intended) and Hoffman misses the cut somehow, you eliminate a large portion of the field assuming you get 6/6 through the cut.
Ryan Palmer $8,500
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Palmer is a local guy that sets up pretty nicely this week. He has three top 15s at this event and hasn’t missed a cut since October. He has been making cuts but not contending so we could assume his ownership will still be under 10%. He ranks in the top 40 in Par Breakers and is 8th in Par 5 Scoring this season. Palmer is very talented and because of where he is priced he is an excellent pivot play this week.
Aaron Baddeley $7,400
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 6%
As stated earlier, I am placing a pretty strong emphasis on putting this week so I am willing to go relatively heavy on good putters priced in the lower tier. Baddeley is an excellent putter as he ranks 9th in SG:Putting this season and is 2nd in One-Putt Percentage. He has finished in the top 10 in two of his last 3 starts worldwide and has a few top 20s at this event in years past.
My Winner: KOOCH
Best of luck this week to everyone…Let’s get this money!!!
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