Well, Masters week left many of us starstruck, entertained, and penniless. Hopefully, not that last part and you were able to get in on all of the Danny Willett sensation. With the season’s first major now in our rear view, this is one of the best times of the year to make some money!
This week we head to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a par 71 course that measures just under 7,100 yards. This is much more of a precision course than a bomber’s paradise so accuracy is going to be key this week.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Matt Kuchar $10,300
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 22%
Matt Kuchar is going to be one of the most popular plays this week but I am willing to eat the ownership on him. Kuchar won here in 2014 and followed it up with a top 5 last season and has multiple top 10s at this event. Along with his strong course history (which does matter), he is also one of the more accurate golfers on Tour which will definitely give him an edge this week. He has had top 30 finishes in seven of his last nine events dating back to November. Kuch should anchor cash lineups and it would be foolish not to sprinkle him in some GPPs as well.
Zach Johnson $10,000
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
This is a good spot to target ZJ at a reduced ownership after last week’s heartbreak MC. While his course history isn’t great here, this is the type of course that he should play well at. ZJ has always been known as a position player and that should help him stay away from trouble this week. He is coming off a solo fifth at the Arnold Palmer before missing the cut last week and is ranked 30th on Tour in GIR %. He should serve as a great tournament pivot off Kuck, Snedeker, and Casey.
Kevin Kisner $9,700
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Local guy! Kevin Kisner is another accurate style golfer on the PGA Tour who sets up well this week. He lost in a playoff to Jim Furyk last season and that sparked his red hot streak around this time last season. Kisner led the field here last season in SG:T2G and is ranked 7th on Tour this season in Driving Accuracy % and 5th in Par 4 Scoring. Kisner is without a doubt my top play this week in all formats.
VALUE PLAYS:
Kevin Na $8,700
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
I am hoping people remember Na’s Saturday round of 85 at Augusta and look elsewhere this week. This is the type of course that suits Na’s game. He has multiple top 20s at this event and is ranked 15th in SG:T2G and 39th in Scrambling this season. He is a solid cash game play and should be rolled out in tournaments as well.
Charles Howell III $8,100
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
CH3 is simply way too cheap this week. He has top 10 finishes in two of his last three starts and is ranked 32nd in GIR% this season. He has a couple top 25s at this event and has been an absolute machine all season. He is much less accurate than the other golfers that I’ve mentioned but he makes up for it with his Scrambling and putting ability. CH3 is a strong play this week.
Scott Brown $7,500
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Scott Brown is another local guy that sets up very nicely this week. He has made six straight cuts and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five events. He had a top 5 here in 2014 and admitted on the Tour Junkies podcast that he loves these type of strategic courses that evens the playing field with the bombers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown show up big in front of his home crowd.
Ben Martin $7,200
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 6%
Ben Martin is quietly shaping up to be a sneaky good play this week. He is priced next to two-time winner Boo Weekley so that should help suppress his already low ownership. He has two top 16 finishes in his last 4 events. He is another local familiar with the area and is great on Bermuda greens. I wouldn’t go super overweight but I would recommend having more exposure than the field.
My Winner: Kisner gets it done this year.
Best of luck this week to everyone…Let’s get this money!!!
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