While we are all very excited for Augusta and the Masters next week, we have what should be an eventful tournament in the Shell Houston Open this week with a stronger field than we are used to seeing here. If you do any research of previous years’ results than you will see that the defending champion JB Holmes, led the field in Driving Distance last year but finished last in Driving Accuracy so that should tell you something about the style of golfers to target this week.
The Shell Houston Open will be held at the Golf Club of Houston in Humble, Texas. This is a par 72 course that measures nearly 7,450 yards. This will be golfers last chance to qualify for the Masters next week so expect to see some fireworks!
KEY STATS:
GIR %
Par 4 Scoring
Driving Distance
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week. I will be placing more emphasis on course history as opposed to other events this season.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rickie Fowler $11,000
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
He has yet to win this season but he has been red hot and pretty much in contention week to week. He is arguably one of the hottest golfers on Tour with 5 top 10s in his last 6 starts including the playoff loss in Phoenix. He is ranked 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in GIR%, and is top 10 in both SG:T2G and SG:Putting. He is an elite play in both cash and GPPs.
Dustin Johnson $10,700
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
On any course where Driving Distance is a key stat, DJ should be in play. He has been playing pretty well even though he hasn’t really been in serious contention yet this season aside from the Northern Trust. He had a nice showing at the Dell Match Play last week and is quietly building steam leading up to the Masters. I still want to see him play well on a Sunday before i fully invest but he is in a good spot this week and you should be able to safely roll him out. He is ranked 5th in Driving Distance and top 20 in Par 4 Scoring.
Phil Mickelson $10,500
Odds To Win: 16-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Phil is playing great golf this season with three top 5 finishes in 2016 already. He is a former winner here in 2011 and has finished in the top 20 for the past 5 years at this event. He is ranked 6th in SG:T2G, 14th in SG:Putting, 4th in Scrambling, and 12th in Par 4 Scoring this season. He is a safe play that should anchor your cash games this week and don’t be afraid to roll him out in tournaments as well.
VALUE PLAYS:
Jimmy Walker $9,200
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Jimmy doesn’t have a strong history at the Shell but he does usually play well in Texas aside from this event. That being said, he is quietly having a strong season with top 15 finishes in six of his last eight starts on Tour. Being that driving accuracy isn’t as important here, I could see Walker benefiting from that and continuing his solid season. He is ranked in the top 20 in SG:T2G and is 3rd in Par 5 Scoring.
Charley Hoffman $8,400
Odds To Win: 84-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Hoffman has had back to back top 20s now and has a nice course history at the Shell with top 25s in 4 of his last 7 starts here. His stats won’t jump out at you this season but he just recently starting coming into form the last few weeks and I’m willing to bet on him showing up this week. This is also where he started to get hot last year during the Texas swing as he went back to back T11s at the Valero then the Shell, before finishing T9 at Augusta.
Cameron Tringale $8,000
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Tringale doesn’t have much form recently although he did have a solid showing at the Arnold Palmer finishing T27. He does, however, have a strong course history here with back to back top 5 finishes past two seasons and has only finished outside of the top 20 once in his five starts here. I’m willing to side with the course history here and for his price, he is most definitely in play this week.
Patrick Rodgers $7,300
Odds To Win: 90-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Rodgers is finally starting to play well again with back to back top 25s in his last two starts. He is still very underpriced considering where he was earlier in this season. He is 36th in Driving Distance this season and is top 30 in both SG:T2G and GIR%. I expect him to show up this week at a course that suits his game fairly well.
Guys I’m Fading: Jordan Spieth (Price only), JB Holmes, Graham DeLaet
My Winner: I could honestly see Dustin Johnson getting his first win of the season here… which means it will be Phil.
As always, best of luck this week everybody.
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