The PGA Tour is off and running now, approaching this season’s first major in a couple weeks and I bet we’re all ready for Augusta! Speaking of the Masters, former Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel got that W at the Valspar and has some nice momentum going so far this season. Hopefully you were able to somehow avoid Sean O’ Hair and Kevin Streelman last week as they double teamed me with no remorse. That being said, we’re going to put the past behind us and try to build some steam ourselves preparing for the Masters in a few weeks.
This week, we close out the Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This is a par 72 course that measures over 7,400 yards and features four Par 3 holes and four Par 5s. Keep in mind, this is a smaller field with only 120 golfers but the cut will still be top 70 and ties giving you more of a chance to get 6/6 through.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week. NOTE: SG:Putting will have an even bigger impact this week as it has been a key indicator of success.
$TUD PLAYS:
Adam Scott $11,700
Odds To Win: 8-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
What else can you say about Adam Scott that hasn’t already been said? His last three starts are T2, Win, Win…..enough said. I’m honestly scratching my head as to how Scott is still $300 cheaper than Rory this week. Scott is ranked 1st on Tour in SG:T2G and Par 5 scoring and is also 6th in GIR %. Can you say 3-peat?
Henrik Stenson $11,100
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
Mr. Consistency, Henrik Stenson hasn’t missed a cut since the end of the WWII era or something like that. Anyway, Stenson is an Orlando native that boasts a strong course history here at Bay Hill with three straight top 10s including a runner up here last season. Stenson ranks in the top 10 in SG:T2G this season and is top 30 in both Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring. He will be a popular pick in both cash and GPPs.
Jason Day $10,800
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
I think some people may have forgotten just how dominant that Jason Day could be when he is on. The somewhat quiet start to this season should once again keep his ownership less than what it should be. Keep in mind, Jason is a great putter ranked 3rd in SG:Putting this season and has three top 25s in his four starts this season. He could be overlooked this week which would make him an excellent tournament play.
VALUE PLAYS:
Paul Casey $8,700
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Paul Casey is priced in an area with some pretty popular names which may keep his ownership somewhat low. With his only MC coming at the Farmers this season, Casey has already notched two top 10s including a solo 7th last week. Casey should be in play on any course where Greens in Regulation is important. He ranks in the top 10 this season in GIR% and is 26th SG:Putting.
David Lingmerth $7,600
Odds To Win: 75-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Lingmerth is always overlooked in tournaments and this week should be the same. That being said, he has made the cut at Bay hill every time he has played here which includes each of the past three seasons and most notably a top 15 last year. He is a good ball striker and always seems to play well on Bermuda so don’t be surprised if he pops off this week.
John Huh $7500
Odds To Win: 90-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
It is crazy to me that some people still don’t even really know who this guy is. After Huh couldn’t managed to log a top 10 in all of 2015, he already has 3 top 10s this season! He has five top 25 finishes in his last 6 starts and yet is always under 10% ownership. He ranks 16th in Par 3 Scoring and is top 30 in Par 5 scoring. You can do much worse than Huh for $7500 bucks this week.
PUNT PLAY:
Patrick Rodgers $6600
Odds To Win: 200-1
Expected Ownership: 1%
This is obviously not a play that you need massive exposure to for some pretty clear reasons. However, Rodgers putts better on Bermuda greens and has the length to kill the Par 5s here. He ranks in the top 30 in GIR% and is top 10 in Par 5 Scoring. Remember, this is a guy who was priced around $8500 early this season. He is going to find his game eventually, now would be a good spot to capitalize.
Guys I’m Fading: Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Every
My Winner: This is the week Rory wins since I didn’t write him up for once.
Best of luck this week, I hope you win it all (seriously).
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know!
