What a crazy finish we had last week at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. Adam Scott continued his dominance with yet another, drama-filled Sunday Win. I really wish that Rory would not have choked (still heated about that) but I’m willing to put it behind me and focus on Valspar.
This week, we head to the Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course for the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida. This is a par 71 course that measures 7,340 yards, featuring four Par 5 holes and five Par 3’s. This is also one of the hardest par 71 courses on Tour so bring on the tilt!
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week. NOTE: SG:Putting will have an even bigger impact this week as it has been a key indicator of success.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jordan Spieth $12,800
Odds To Win: 5-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
I was full team #FadeSpieth last week but not this tournament. Spieth has a strong course history here including his victory over Patrick Reed in 2015. This is the exact course that you would expect Spieth to excel at. He is a great putter and ranked 1st this season in Birdie Average. Don’t get cute and overthink it. Spieth is a great play in all formats.
Patrick Reed $10,400
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
I probably feel as disgusted as you when saying Patrick Reed’s name right now due to his recent performances or lack thereof. However, that is precisely why he is an excellent tournament play this week. Although his form has been bad last few weeks, he is in a great spot to bounce back this week so I encourage you to capitalize on the ownership discount while you still can. Reed ranks in the top 25 in Scrambling this season and is 1st in Overall Putting Average.
KJ Choi $8,800
Odds To Win: 45-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Some people might puke at the thought of paying almost 9K for KJ Choi but not I. Choi has been playing at a high level recently with 3 top 20 finishes in his last 4 starts including two top 5s. Choi is a two-time winner here so his course knowledge and good recent form makes me a strong believer this week. He is top 10 on Proximity from over 200 yards, ranks 2nd on Tour in Scrambling, 26th in SG:Putting, and 3rd in Par 3 Scoring. So, I’ll say it again…I WILL pay that much for Choi this week!
VALUE PLAYS:
Sean O’ Hair $7,800
Odds To Win: 70-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
O’Hair is a former winner here and runner up just last year so there is no reason for you not to roster him at this price. He is coming off a top 15 finish at the Honda and I would expect him to keep that momentum going into the Valspar where the course suits him well. He ranks in the top 30 in Scrambling, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, and is top 10 in SG:Putting. You can’t do much better than him at $7800 this week.
Russell Henley $7,300
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
I will continue to play Russell Henley at courses where putting is important regardless of the outcome. His form has not been good but that makes him an excellent tournament play with the low ownership this week. Henley ranks in the top 25 in SG:Putting and is 11th this season in 3-Putt Avoidance. His putting and accuracy should pay off big this week and it is too hard to pass on his price.
Jamie Lovemark $7,100
Odds To Win: 140-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Lovemark should be another low-owned high upside guy this week. While he is a bomber off the tee, he is also a very good scrambler as he ranks 7th on Tour this season. He is coming off a top 20 at the Northern Trust prior to the MC last week. He has 3 top 10s this season so we know the upside is there. He is also a very solid putter and could be a nice pivot off Will Wilchalk this week.
PUNT PLAY:
Bryce Molder $6,100
Odds To Win: 160-1
Expected Ownership: 3%
Molder’s stats aren’t going to jump out at you but for just 6K you can’t be too picky. Despite his struggles so far this season, Molder is a good putter and scrambler and has shown flashes of upside in between all of his missed cuts. My approach this week is going to be mainly balanced so I won’t have many stars/scrubs lineups but I will have some exposure to Molder this week.
Guys I’m Fading: Danny Willett, Graeme McDowell, Keegan Bradley,
My Winner: Do I really want to jinx Spieth this week?
Bring on the Snake Pit!!
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