I’m sure most people just want to forget about last week so I won’t say much about it other than congratulations to Adam Scott on a well deserved win. Moving on to this week…. we are back to a bomber’s paradise! NOTE: This is a no-cut event so plan accordingly.
The WGC-Cadillac Championship will be hosted at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida. This course is a long par 72 that measures over 7,500 yards. Distance off the tee has been a huge indicator of success here so you clearly need some bombers this week. This should be a nice change from last week so let’s get to it!
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 9-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
I can honestly see Mcllroy’s ownership being around or under 10% this week even with a smaller field. He is coming off the MC from last week and there are just so many other great options for hundreds of dollars cheaper. This makes him an excellent tournament play especially if we can get him at an expected ownership discount. Mcllroy’s biggest strength is arguably his distance off the tee and it has served him well at this event with four top 10s in the past five years. Keep in mind, this is normally Rory’s debut event of the season but this year he was able to shake off any rust he had at Riviera last week. He needs to be fired out in all formats.
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
Any course where length is going to be a big factor, Bubba needs to be in consideration for obvious reasons. This will be Bubba’s first start since the Win at the Northern Trust two weeks ago so he is likely to be a popular play and for good reason. Bubba ranks 6th in both Driving Distance and GIR % this season and is top 5 in SG:T2G. He also has three top 3 finishes in the last four years at this event.
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
In a normal sized event, I would expect Day’s ownership to be less but because of where he is priced I think he will fall in the 10-15% range this week. Why pay $11,700 for Spieth when you can get Spieth with more distance (Day) for $600 less? It just doesn’t make sense to me and for that reason I will be pretty much fading Spieth everywhere. Day has been relatively quiet this season and with uninspiring course history here he may be overlooked this week. That being said, he sets up well for this course as a bomber, great putter, and makes a ton of birdies. Make sure he is on your radar.
VALUE PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
JB Holmes just might end up being one of the most popular plays this week. He is underpriced and sets up very well for this course as most of the bombers do. JB was crushing it here last year before the Sunday meltdown (still fresh in my mind from all the money he cost me). Anyway, Holmes murders the ball off the tee and is top 6 in SG:T2G and his recent form is superb as he is yet to finish outside of the top 25 in any event this season. He is a solid pick in all formats that shouldn’t disappoint.
Odds To Win: 30-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Brooks is yet another bomber that should be in the mix on Sunday this week. He is a Florida guy and knows how to make plenty of birdies which makes him pretty safe for a no-cut event. He ranks in the top 10 in both Driving Distance and Birdie Average this season and is coming into this week with some solid form. He should, with no doubt be the chalk this week.
Odds To Win: 55-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Jimmy Walker is a roller-coaster type golfer that people love to hate. Well, hate him or not but he is a strong play this week. Walker is long off the tee, good putter, top 5 in Par 5 Scoring, and makes a ton of birdies so he checks all the boxes here. His form has been great this season with multiple top 10s and does have a top 25 here since the redesign. He is underpriced and he is also a great way to differentiate your lineups this week because nobody likes to use Jimmy outside of the West Coast and Hawaii.
PUNT PLAY:
Odds To Win: 150-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Berger is going to be very popular this week for a guy under 7K but it is pretty hard to argue with considering it lets you pack some of those top guys in. His form has been suspect lately but he is also a Florida guy and can crush it off the tee. Berger is the perfect guy for a no-cut event as his biggest problem is usually making it to the weekend.
Guys I’m Fading: Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Kisner
My Winner (Might change “winner” to MC): RORY
Best of luck this week, no-cut sweat so don’t lose hope!
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know!
