What an amazing week in golf at the Northern Trust as Bubba took it home! Last week will be hard to top for viewing purposes but the Honda Classic should make for an eventful weekend as well. This week’s Honda Classic marks the start of the Florida Swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
This is a par 70 course that measures just over 7,100 yards and is also one of the more difficult courses on Tour. With expected high winds and bunkers everywhere, anything around Even par is acceptable this week considering the difficulty of the course and conditions.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rory Mcllroy $12,500
Odds to Win: 5 ½ – 1
Expected Ownership: 16%
Do not let Rory’s disappointing finish on Sunday scare you off him this week. Rory is an elite golfer with pretty strong course history here. He is a former winner here in 2012 and lost in a playoff in 2014. He is ranked in the top 20 in Par 4 scoring this season and is 2nd in GIR %. If there is one guy that can run away with this tournament, it’s him.
Patrick Reed $10,600
Odds to Win: 18 – 1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Reed is going to be one of my top plays this week in both cash and GPPs. He sets up perfect for PGA National ranking in the top 20 in both SG:T2G and GIR %. He is also 5th in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd in Scrambling this season. He is coming off a T6 at Pebble Beach and has a top 10 last year at this event. If I’m not paying up for Rory, the majority of my lineups will start with Reed this week.
Russell Knox $9,700
Odds To Win: 33 – 1
Expected Ownership: 6%
Where Russell Knox is priced at, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see him even under 5% ownership this week which makes me pretty excited. The majority of gamers will take the $200-$400 savings for Casey or Sergio or pay up a little more to fit Kisner in rather than pay that price for Russell this week. While those are all strong plays, I think Knox is the sharp leverage play here as he sets up very nicely this week. He is ranked 1st in GIR % this season, 5th in Scrambling, and is top 15 in both Sand Save % and Par 4 Scoring. He’s had two top 3 finishes in his only two starts here and Vegas obviously likes him with his odds considering the field.
VALUE PLAYS:
Luke Donald $8,600
Odds To Win: 55 – 1
Expected Ownership: 18%
How can you not like Luke Donald this week? He may end up being the highest owned golfer this week and I can’t even argue with it. Donald has a very strong course history here with top 10 finishes in 5 of his 8 starts here including three straight. He is ranked 12th this season in Scrambling and is top 20 in Par 4 Scoring. ALL THE DONALD!!!
Freddie Jacobson $8,200
Odds To Win: 66 – 1
Expected Ownership: 12%
The old man is demanding respect! Jacobson has two top 5 finishes in his last 3 starts and once again sets up well this week. He is a great putter and plays well in the sand so that should really help give him an edge this week. He is a top 15 Scrambler and ranked 3rd in Par 3 Scoring. He also has a strong course history here with multiple top 10 and top 25 finishes.
David Lingmerth $8,200
Odds To Win: 66 – 1
Expected Ownership: 4%
If you’re looking for a guy that will separate you from the field in GPPs, Lingmerth is your guy. He is coming off two straight missed cuts but let’s be honest, were we really expecting him to play well at those particular events? Prior to those missed cuts, he had three straight top 15 finishes in January. Those events include the Sony Open which tends to correlate with PGA National. Lingmerth has good experience with bermuda grass and has two top 25s in last two starts at the Honda. I like him way too much this week and I’m not mad about it [yet].
PUNT PLAY:
Tyrone Van Aswegen $5,900
Odds To Win: 200 – 1
Expected Ownership: no idea
I am very interested to see what Aswegen’s ownership will be in the bigger GPPs this week. I generally try to avoid the popular cheap guys but he is literally dirt cheap and arguably has the highest upside for the guys he is priced around. Aswegen is a cut maker and while most of his stats won’t blow you away, he is 12th in Sand Save % so that should really help him out this week. Plugging him into your lineups will give you plenty of wiggle room to fit multiple golfers in the 10K plus range.
Guys I’m Fading: Jimmy Walker, Justin Thomas, Jason Kokrak
My Winner: This is the part where I say Patrick Reed and he misses the cut right?
Best of luck this week, bring on the Bear Trap!!!
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