No need to recap much from last week, Vaughn Taylor got an emotional win at Phil Mickelson’s expense blah blah blah. Not a great DFS week for me as you can probably tell but I am super excited to be done with the three course pro-am formats as I’m sure most of you are as well. Watching the tournament on TV last week gave me a somewhat strong urge to poke my eyes out with a fork. ANYWAY, this week we are spoiled with a packed field that features many of the game’s best including a few golfers making their 2016 debut.
Riviera Country Club is a par 71 course that measures over 7,300 yards. With strong correlation to Augusta, Riviera CC plays like a major in that it is a very challenging golf course so don’t expect to see many crazy low scores come the weekend.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 6 ½ – 1
Expected Ownership: 12%
The only reason I could see Jordan’s ownership being this low is because of the expensive price and being right next to Rory which should mean we could get him at a potentially big ownership discount. I understand we do not have a large sample size yet but this season’s numbers still hold weight. Jordan ranks 1st on Tour this year in almost every important category this week: 1st in Scrambling, 1st in SG:Putting, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in SG:T2G. He always seems to up his game when the competition is stiff. Jordan also has back to back top 12 finishes at this event. I strongly suggest to do whatever you can do get him in your roster in all formats.
Odds To Win: 16-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Another week, another Hideki write up…..I could see Matsuyama potentially being one of the highest owned players coming off the big win at the WMPO. Also, because he is $2,000 cheaper than Rory and Spieth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see many folks start their roster construction with him. He is ranked 2nd on Tour in SG:T2G, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, and top 25 in Scrambling. He also had a top 5 finish last year at Riviera.
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
We haven’t seen much of Sergio lately but he has been playing overseas and is coming off a top 10. These tough grind it out courses seem to fit Garcia so well. He is a good scrambler and putter and knows how to handle the long par 4s. He has a strong course history here with multiple top 5 finishes. Make sure he is on your radar this week!
VALUE PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 90-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Woodland absolutely crushes it off the tee so he clearly has the distance here which isn’t an absolute necessity but is preferred on this course. He ranks 1st in Driving Distance this season, 6th in SG:T2G, and 6th in Approaches from 150-175 yards. His course history is not good here but his form is, posting 3 top 25 finishes in his last 4 starts. I have him penciled in as a great pivot off guys like CH3 in that range. You can do a lot worse than Woodland at $7600 this week.
Odds To Win: 90-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
Rodgers should be a pretty popular play this week hovering around the 7K range. He is one of the best younger guys on Tour in my opinion and sets up pretty nicely this week. Rodgers has the distance you want here averaging about 300 yards per drive and he also ranks 5th in SG:T2G. His putter has not been great this season but he is top 25 in Par 4 Scoring and top 10 in GIR %.
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
Lovemark is probably my second favorite play around 7K this week (I’ll name favorite next). He is a monster off the tee as he is top 10 in Driving Distance this season and is also a great scrambler ranked 11th on Tour. We have already seen his upside this season with the back to back top 10s at the Sony and Career Builder. If you are going to fit Spieth/Rory in your lineup, Lovemark is a must play at this price considering his upside.
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Choi will be another popular 7K guy (Words I never thought I’d say). Choi’s length may hinder him this week but then again, it never has at this event. KJ has a very strong course history here with multiple top 10 finishes and his form is good coming in. He is an excellent scrambler ranked 9th on Tour. He is also top 10 in Par 3 scoring so he should be able to take advantage of the four Par 3 holes this week.
Guys I’m Fading: Kevin Na, Fredrik Jacobson, CH3
My Winner: It’s got to be Spieth here right? RIGHT?!
ALL OF IT THIS WEEK, ALL THE MONEYS!!!!
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know!
