What a tournament last week! I was at the Waste Management last week on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday and let me tell you, it was unreal. The crowd was electrifying and not just on hole 16 but pretty much everywhere. All in all, a great tournament and really happy to see Hideki get a long overdue win even though it came at Rickie’s expense.
On to this week… I’m going going back back to Cali… The PGA Tour heads back to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This event will feature three separate courses and the cut will come after the third round so don’t be afraid to take some risks this week. The golfers will alternate between Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill. All three are par 72 courses that range from 6,800 – 7,000 yards. You typically need guys who are going to be able to go low here along with golfers who are comfortable at this event as weather may be an issue for some. I am going to put a little extra emphasis (more so for high priced golfers) on course history this week as opposed to other events.
KEY STATS:
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
What is there not to like about DJ this week? He hits the ball a mile and has an excellent course history: back to back winner in 09-10 and three top 5 finishes in last 4 years. Another reason why I have DJ as my top GPP play is because of where he is priced. Some gamers will gravitate to Day/Spieth and many others will take $300 discount on Snedeker. That is the only reason I can see his ownership staying under 20%.
Odds To Win: 15-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Speaking of Snedeker, it is hard to fade him even as the expected chalk play. Snedeker has been an absolute animal this season. Aside from the Win at the Farmers, he had back to back top 3 finishes before that event. He is a two-time winner here in the past 3 years and defending champion. Not to mention he is one of the best putters on Tour and is 32nd in Scrambling this season.
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
It is no secret that Phil loves him some Pebble Beach. He is a multiple winner here and most recently in 2012. He is ranked in the top 25 in Scrambling this season and is top 5 in Par 5 Scoring. He is coming off a T11 last week in Phoenix and had a T3 at the Career Builder which is an event with a similar structure.
VALUE PLAYS:
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
If there is a golfer that I’m willing to throw out course history for, his name is BOHN, JASON BOHN. His uninspiring last two events should keep the masses off him but I’m willing to bet that Bohn bounces back nicely this week. Bohn is an above average putter and scrambler and he ranks in the top 15 this season in SG:T2G and GIR %. He makes a ton of birdies and his three top 3 finishes during the fall swing prove he has the upside you want for a guy at his price.
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Henley is an excellent GPP play this week. He burned many people at the Sony last month and followed it up with a less than stellar top 50 finish and a MC last week so you won’t have to worry about Henley’s ownership level. Russell has the length to help him out at these courses and is ranked in the top 50 in GIR % and top 40 in Scrambling. He is a great putter and if he gets hot, he can really make some noise this week.
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
You can expect many people to get back on the Wilcox wagon after a Sunday 65 left him with a nice T6 in Phoenix. Wilcox also took to Twitter to let his followers aka the DFS community know that he is feeling good again. He is an above average scrambler which will be key this week so look for him to keep the momentum going into Pebble.
PUNT PLAY:
Odds To Win: 350-1
Expected Ownership: 2%
Luke List is a very boom or bust golfer which makes him the perfect sub 7K punt especially at this style of event. List is ranked 26th in Par 5 Scoring this season and is top 25 in Driving Distance and SG:T2G. His putting is not great but you can’t really have it all for $6400. He posted a T6 at the Career Builder before missing the cut the past two weeks.
Guys I’m Fading: Bubba, Rose, Lingmerth, Mahan
My Winner: As much as I want to say DJ or Phil, it will be Spieth…
Best of luck this week, Let’s get this money.
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