Brandt Snedeker continued his red hot start to the 2016 season last week with a win at the Farmers. Hats off to him as he was able to overcome hurricane-like weather and shoot -3 when 80 wasn’t uncommon for other golfers. With many big name golfers missing the cut, and the absolutely brutal weather, it turned out to be such an odd week for DFS golf.
This week, should be much better in terms of weather and scoring as we head to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. I am especially excited for this week as I will be at the tournament! If you will be there, let’s meet up at the 16th! This is a Par 71 course that measures over 7,250 yards. This is a scorers course that has seen the majority of recent winners finish in the mid to high teens under par. Bombers have done well here but length is not the end all be all this week. The key stats that I will be looking at are as follows:
KEY STATS:
Par 4 Birdie or Better %
GIR %
Par Breakers
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Bubba Watson $12,100
Odds To Win: 11-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
Bubba is a great play this week for obvious reasons but could he be in an even better spot than we originally thought? With Bubba being the highest priced golfer this week, some may want to save money and go with a more balanced approach. Another reason Bubba will not be as highly owned as he should be is because many gamers may want to save $300 and go with the scorching hot Brandt Snedeker fresh off a win last week instead. This makes Bubba an excellent tournament play this week. Whenever we can get an elite golfer at an ownership discount, we have to capitalize. I believe that will be the case with Bubba this week who has a very strong course history here with three top 5 finishes in the last four years.
Hideki Matsuyama $11,000
Odds To Win: 22-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
I am going back to the well on Matsuyama this week and I’m not sorry about it. Hideki flashed his upside at times early in the Farmers as he was leading the tournament at one point in round 1 before trailing off near the end of his round. He did end up missing the cut which should continue to keep his ownership under 10% regardless of the strong course history here. Matsuyama was battling Brooks Koepka here last year and is the exact type of golfer that I’m looking for this week. He is a little more expensive than I hoped but this is a case where it will benefit you to pay up for Hideki who has finished in the top 5 last two years (only played here twice).
Kevin Na $10,000
Odds To Win: 33-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
If Kevin Na is ever going to get that elusive win this season, it is going to be here. Na has posted four top 3 finishes in his last six starts. Along with the great form coming in, he sets up very well here this week as he is ranked in the top 25 in GIR % and Par 4 Birdie or Better %. He is also top 10 in both SG:T2G and Par Breakers and has four top 5 finishes at this event. Na is a good pivot for GPPs and should be considered an anchor in cash games.
VALUE PLAYS:
Daniel Berger $7,600
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 13.5%
Berger’s performance over the beginning of the 2016 season is not going to blow you away but he is simply underpriced this week. Berger’s length and scoring ability set him up nicely this week as he is ranked 7th in Driving Distance this season and 33rd in Par 4 Scoring. Plus, it’s Daniel Berger and he is the man!
Patrick Rodgers $7,100
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Rodgers is another guy who I’m willing to forgive for last week and focus on his overall talent and not just because he is one of my favorite golfers. He is very strong tee to green and ranks in the top 15 in GIR %. At only $7100, it allows us the salary relief to be able to fit one or two of those 10K + guys this week. Not to mention, Rodgers has the talent and upside to compete here.
PUNT PLAY:
Spencer Levin $6,100
Odds To Win: 250-1
Expected Ownership: 3%
Spencer’s stats won’t blow you away but they don’t need to for a 6k punt play. Levin has flashed upside at times last season and during the fall swing where he posted three straight top 25s. He is ranked in the top 15 in Par 3 scoring so he will look to take advantage of the four Par 3 holes this week. Levin also has a top 3 finish here in 2012 so for his price, he shouldn’t disappoint.
Guys I’m Fading: Kisner, Lingmerth, Steele, and Finau
My Winner: Kevin Na!
Best of luck this week and enjoy the Greatest Show on Grass!!!
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