As if last week wasn’t bad enough with the three different courses, they are doing it to us again this week. Well, not really. This week, we continue on the West Coast swing and head to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open in La Jolla, California. Golfers will play both the North and South course at Torrey Pines before the 36-hole cut and the final two rounds will be held at the South course.
I am not going to place much emphasis on the North course because there will only be one round played there. However, just so you are aware the North course at Torrey Pines is a very short par 72 course that measures just over 7,000 yards so expect most birdies to be made during this round. The South course at Torrey Pines is much more difficult as it measures nearly 7,700 yards clearly giving your bomber style golfers a big advantage. Having your guys make par this week won’t nearly be as terrible as it was during the CareerBuilder last week, I promise. Jason Day’s winning score from last year was -9 under par so anything under par is solid really. Make sure to check out our PGA Player Rankings page which offers you a place to build customized player rankings where you determine the key stats that you want to use.
KEY STATS:
Driving Distance
GIR %
Par 5 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History (not so much on course history this week) will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jason Day $12,000
Odds To Win: 6-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
Jason Day is going to be one of the most popular picks this week but it is hard to make a case for trying to fade Jason. As mentioned, he is the defending champ here and has a strong course history with multiple top 10 finishes. He is clearly a bomber and a great putter also. Don’t try to get cute this week, if you can afford him, Day is your guy.
Hideki Matsuyama $10,300
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 8%
This will be the first time Matsuyama is teeing it up since the World Challenge in December so that should keep the masses off him. I for one, do not forget just how crazy talented this guy is. Honestly, I would go to battle for Hideki Matsuyama. This guy had 19 top 25 finishes last season, 9 of which were top 10 finishes. He is one of the best tee to green players on Tour and can keep up with the bombers as well. I expect a few Wins from him this season, not guaranteed that it will come this week but soon. I strongly recommend getting Matsuyama while you can at an ownership discount this week.
Jimmy Walker $10,100
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
What can I say? I am a sucker for Jimmy…. But seriously, Walker has the distance that you need to compete this week. He is averaging 304 yards per drive so far this season and is ranked in the top 30 in Par 5 Scoring. Aside from that, he is a phenomenal putter which should give him an advantage with these tough Poa Annua greens. Not to mention, he has multiple top 10s at this event in the past few seasons. I think Walker will serve as a great pivot off DJ/Rickie/Snedeker this week.
Paul Casey $9,600
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
I could see Paul Casey being one of the overlooked golfers who can make a lot of noise this week. Casey is generally always overlooked but he also has not tee’d up since the World Challenge and most gamers will probably look elsewhere in the stacked field. That being said, this course (South) suits Casey’s game very well this week. Casey is long enough off the tee but what sets him apart is his accuracy. Casey always ranked high in GIR % throughout tournaments last season and is ranked 1st in that category so far this season off the very small sample size. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Casey lingering come Sunday.
VALUE PLAYS:
Patrick Rodgers $7,600
Odds To Win: 60-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
This is one of my favorite younger guys to watch on Tour. Rodgers is an exciting golfer that has the ability to get red hot which we got to witness over the Fall Swing with 4 straight top 20 finishes. Like a few other guys this week, this is the first time we will get to see Patrick since late November but that doesn’t scare me off one bit. Rodgers is ranked 7th in SG:T2G this season, 12th in GIR % and 5th in Par 5 Scoring. He is just simply too underpriced this week.
Tony Finau $7,500
Odds To Win: 60-1
Expected Ownership: 17.5%
You can’t really go a week without talking about Tony Finau, especially at a bombers course like this. He may have burned quite a bit of people last week but he still played fairly well so I’m not particularly worried and I doubt others will be either. Back to back weeks with less than stellar performances for Tony but let’s remember that those weren’t exactly geared for bombers. Finau is ranked 4th in Driving Distance this season averaging an absurd 320 yards per drive. His length will surely give him an advantage this week and look for him to dominate the Par 5s as usual as he is ranked 2nd in Par 5 Birdie or Better this season. At his price, he should almost be considered an auto-play.
Andrew Loupe $6,900
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
Let’s be clear, this isn’t just a “Oh, well he played great last week so let’s try again” play. This guy is legit. He had two top 10s during the Fall Swing and is coming off the T3 last week. He sets up very well this week as he is ranked in the top 30 in both Driving Distance and Par 3 Scoring. Aside from that, he is an excellent putter ranked 14th in SG:Putting so far this season. On a side note, shout out to @Tour_Junkies who asked John Peterson on their Podcast this week who he thought was one of the guys who can make some noise this year on Tour. His answer was none other than Mr. Loupe. You can’t really ask for more at under 7K.
Guys I’m Fading: Justin Rose, Snedeker, Reed, Mickelson
My Winner: Jason Day because Jason Day
Best of luck this week!
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