The Sony Open had an exciting playoff finish with Fabian Gomez taking it home last week. From a fantasy perspective, the tournament left much to be desired for me. Basically, if you take all the golfers that I never have much to any exposure to and that was the Sony Open top 10 on the leaderboard on Sunday.
I wish I could say that this will be a bounce back week but with this format in an event like this, there is more variance which is why it would be wise for gamers to play a smaller percentage of their bankroll this week. That being said, we are fortunate enough to get a little more risky this week with each golfer playing a minimum of three rounds barring no WD’s.
This week, we head to La Quinta, CA for the CareerBuilder Challenge (formerly known as the Humana Challenge last year). In case you don’t already know, this event will be played across three different courses: TPC Stadium, Nicklaus Tournament course, and La Quinta CC. All three of these courses are par 72 courses with four Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes as well so both Par 3 Scoring and Par 5 scoring will be important this week. I will also be targeting accurate golfers off the tee so Driving Accuracy and GIR% will be key as well. Along with those stats, you simply need to be able to make birdies if you want to compete this week so we have to take a look at birdie or better % when constructing our rosters.
KEY STATS:
Birdie or Better %
Par 5 Scoring
Driving Accuracy
Par 3 Scoring
GIR %
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History (not so much on course history this week) will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Patrick Reed $12,400
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: King Chalk
Patrick Reed will once again be a very popular play but for good reason. This guy is simply red hot and with not much course history this week, recent form is a good bet to go with. Reed has been on fire this season and most recently with a solo second place finish at the TOC. We know he’s a scorer and you need guys that can go low this week. That being said, I think fading Reed is an interesting strategy for GPP purposes considering his super high expected ownership and the fact that he generally struggles with Pete Dye courses. I still think Reed is a strong play but if you are a multi-entry player I would suggest fading him in a few.
Zach Johnson $11,900
Odds To Win: 20-1
Expected Ownership: 12.5%
Once again, ZJ serves as a great pivot play this week. He is priced too high for many people to be on him because if you’re going to be pay 12K then you will probably just fork up the other $500 for Reed or save $400 and take the defending champ Bill Haas. ZJ is coming off a T9 last week and ranks in the top 25 in GIR Percentage this season. He is the exact type of accurate golfer that I will be targeting this week and it is a huge bonus that I expect to be getting him at an ownership discount even with the solid play last week.
Jason Bohn $10,100
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
Long gone are the days where Jason Bohn was a sneaky but consistent play from week to week like early on last season. Bohn is arguably one of the most accurate golfers on Tour and don’t think that everyone else has not noticed the three top 3s during the fall swing. My only gripe about Bohn is his price this week. Don’t get me wrong, I think he is a great play but I almost feel like we are paying for his ceiling if priced above 10K. But If you have the salary, no need to look elsewhere.
VALUE PLAY$:
Will Wilcox $7300
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Wilcox was a disaster last week but golf is all about short-term memory right? I still expect Wilcox to be a popular pick this week even after the dumpster fire at the Sony Open. Reason being, he is just way too talented to be priced this low. When Will is on, he is a scorer and that is exactly what you need at this venue so I’ll be going back to the well this week.
Pat Perez $6600
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
Whether you agree or not, I’m going to hammer Pat Perez at this price. The MDF stung a bit last week but make no mistake about it, Perez is a cut maker and can string together some birdies when he gets hot. I think this could be one of those courses where we see him get it going early. Let’s be honest, at this price it is almost a plug and play…Hopefully he hurt enough people at the Sony that it will keep his ownership relatively low this week.
PUNT PLAY:
Steve Wheatcroft $6100
Odds To Win: 250-1
Expected Ownership: 3%
Wheatcroft is a grinder on Tour who generally will make cuts but not make too much noise until he will randomly pop up here and there for a T25 or even a top 5 finish. Last year, this was one of those events where he “popped up” for a T2 shooting -21 under par. He has shown the ability on courses that suit him, that he really can go low and at his price he is a great punt this week where scrambling will be important mainly at TPC Stadium.
Guys I’m Fading: Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, and (Some) Patrick Reed 😉
My Winner: ZZZZZZZJJJJJJJJJJ
Bring it home this week!!!!
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know!
