PGA Tour golf is back! It may have not been a long break, but it sure felt long. Anyway, we have golf this week ladies and gents, so all is right in the world. I sincerely hope that all of you had a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year… BUT now that the holidays are over, it’s time to get back to business.
This week, the 32 man field will head to Maui, Hawaii to play the Plantation Course at Kapalua. This course is a par 73 that measures about 7,450 yards. While you may see the length of this course and automatically assume that you want to target bombers this week, that may not be the case. Putting has been the main indicator of success at Kapalua so I will be targeting strong putters more so than bombers. There are four par 5 holes so Par 5 scoring will be another indicator of success this week along with Birdie or Better Percentage as you will need to be able to go low to compete at Kapalua this week.
KEY STATS:
SG:Putting
Par 5 Scoring
Birdie or Better %
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rickie Fowler $10,000
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: 15%
It is going to be very difficult to get low owned guys on your roster this week with the smaller field and no cut event. That being said, I think Rickie is in a great spot this week as a pivot off the Spieths/Days/Johnsons etc. Also, being priced $100 more than defending champion Patrick Reed should keep his ownership at a lower level than the other stars around him. Rickie is a great putter and these open fairways should suit his game nicely. He is coming in with good form with his recent solo 3rd finish at the Hero World Challenge and should serve as a nice anchor in cash and GPPs.
Patrick Reed $9,900
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: King Chalk
What’s not to like about fat Pat this week? The defending champion here at Kapalua is coming into this week with 6 straight top 10s and a solo 2nd at the Hero. Reed has really shown us the ability to string together some birdies when the putter gets hot and that is exactly what you need at this type of golf course. I expect a strong defense from him this week even with the packed field.
VALUE PLAYS:
Jimmy Walker $8000
Odds To Win: 30-1
Expected Ownership: 20%
It is sort of tough to predict Jimmy’s ownership this week for two conflicting reasons: First, he burned many people fading away near the end of last season. Second, he always seems to play well near the beginning of the season and particularly in Hawaii. It’s not just the Hawaii narrative, Walker really sets up well for this course as he is one of the best putters on Tour and that should help him out in a big way this week.
Brandt Snedeker $7700
Odds To Win: 40-1
Expected Ownership: 10%
The majority of people will be off Snedeker this week as he was absolutely horrific down the stretch near the end of last season. However, I am willing to roll the dice with him this week for a few reasons: First, a nagging hip injury was a big reason for the piss poor play at times last season so the time off was much needed. Secondly, when Snedeker is on, he is a great player and one of the better putters on Tour. Lastly, he is just too underpriced for me not to roll him out in some GPPs. His price allows you to be able to get guys like Reed and Rickie in your lineup without completely ruining it.
Danny Lee $7500
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 25%
In case you didn’t already notice, Danny Lee has a permanent price of $7500 in every tournament he plays in. The New Zealander iron man is a good ball striker and great putter. He is likely to be a very popular pick for those reasons and his cheap price tag. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sneak into the top 15 even with the strong field.
Guys I’m Fading: Spieth (Price only), Day, Bubba, Knox, Grillo
My Winner: Rickie Fowler
Best of luck this week, let’s start 2016 off in the GREEN!!!
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