5Dimes released their regular season prop bets for players to lead the league in Passing, Rushing and Receiving yards along with regular season MVP odds. These odds give us a look into how Vegas models are predicting this season will play out. There are some eye opening things that Vegas is telling us based on these prop bets right now. We will take a closer look at the rushing yard prop bets today. We touched on the receiving yards prop bet and will finish up with passing in the next couple of days. Below are 5 running back fantasy football observations Vegas appears to be telling us based off of the odds at 5Dimes.
1. Bishop Sankey 21st-26th overall +7500
The Tennessee Titans made Bishop Sankey the highest drafted running back in Mays 2014 NFL draft. The last running back to make a run at the rushing title in his rookie season was the man we will talk about next Mr. Alfred Morris in 2012. Bishop has an outside shot at duplicating that effort this year. His +7500 price seems right as long as the Titans can improve on their projected 6.7 total wins this year. Rushing yards for a running back is the most predicated statistic based on a teams actual win loss record. If the Titans can improve on their win total in the weak AFC north then priced as the 21st most likely winner Bishop has a clear opportunity to be the workhorse back in Tennessee and pay off at +7500.
2. Alfred Morris 5th Overall +1500
If not for Adrian Petersons remarkable 2012 campaign Alf would have been the rushing leader in his rookie season. Last year the entire Redskins team fell apart but Vegas seems to side with the 2012 version of Alf that we saw as opposed to the 2013 version. He has not shown any sort of pass catching ability in his first two years which does explain his ADP hoovering around 15-16 in PPR #MFL10 leagues. He would be criminally under drafted at that position if he finishes with a yardage total north of 1500 yards which does seem to be in the realm of possibility if the Redskins can improve on their projected 7.8 wins from Vegas futures props bets. It seems Alf will be very fragile to game flow this year but if the Redskins can lead games early a healthy dose of Alf will keep hits off of RG3 which will be in everyones best interest.
3. Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin 3rd and 4th Overall +1000, +1450
Pointing out two backs who have seen their draft stocks plummet due to talks of timeshares coming from coaches and the media. Vegas does not seem to be buying into this talk ranking Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin 3rd and 4th Overall at +1000, +1450. If Vegas projects Martin to be on the field enough to finish 4th in yards, along with his pass catching ability, his current ADP as the 12th Running Back off of the board is insanely under drafted. If the talks of a timeshare in Tampa are mute by October, Doug Martin could be a fantasy winning player this draft season. He is a player to continue to monitor throughout the preseason. With the timeshare already cooked into his current ADP any change that shows a lack of timeshare evolving will result in his ADP having a drastic correction upwards.
4. LeVeon Bell 17th overall +5000
Leveon Bell is one more workhouse back that Vegas does not seem particularly high on. It could be the tough rushing defenses that are littered into the Steelers schedule. Currently 30th ranked SOS against the run, his yards could be tough to come by all year. Fantasy analysts have seemed to start targeting Leveon as he is one of the few three down backs that we will see this year. Even though they are supposed to have one of the worst SOS against rushing defenses Pittsburgh is still projected to win 9.67 games this year by Vegas lines. SOS is not that predictable on a year to year basis and with the 9.67 wins expected means a lot of games where Leveon Bell will be asked to milk out the clock. He is a mid range guy to target in this rushing yards bet especially if we continue to see his ADP rise through August.
5. Eddie Lacy 9th overall +2000
It will be tough for Eddie to win this bet with the prolific passing offense that the Packers have put together. But with Lacy projected as a top 5 back by both fantasy analysts and MFL10 ADP data and the Packers sitting at a cool 10.5 projected wins it is within the realm of possibility that Lacy could put up workhouse type numbers and lead the league in rushing yards in a top 3 offense this year. The Packers should have no trouble moving the ball and it is my projections that would price Lacy as a top 5 rushing candidate, so sitting at 9th overall he appears to still be an under priced bargain when going against Vegas odds.
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