The Boston Celtics are favored by 2 points for a decisive Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena on Saturday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Heat are leading the series 3-2. The matchup’s over/under is set at 209.5.
Our computer predictions below will help you decide what are the best bets available for Saturday’s game.
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Spread: Celtics (-2) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Celtics favored by two, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (2.6 points).
- Boston’s ATS record is 45-36-1 this season.
- When playing as at least 2-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 34-34-1.
- So far this season, Miami has compiled a 30-49-3 record against the spread.
- The Heat are 9-10 ATS this year when playing as at least 2-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 209.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (14.3 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- In 68 games this year, Boston and its opponent have combined to score more than 209.5 points.
- Miami’s games have gone over 209.5 points on 63 occasions this year.
- Celtics games have hit the over 39 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this season, 41 out of the Heat’s 82 games with an over/under have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-125)
- Prediction: Celtics 113, Heat 111
- Boston has won 51, or 70.8%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Miami has come away with seven wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Jaylen Brown Points Prop: Under 22.5
- Jaylen Brown puts up 26.6 points, 3.5 assists and 6.9 boards per contest.
- The 22.5-point over/under set for Brown on Saturday is 4.1 less than his scoring average on the season (26.6).
- Brown has gone over on his points prop total 37 times this season out of 68 games with such a prop.
- In 2022-23, the Heat are worst in the NBA offensively (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best on defense (109.8 points allowed).
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Bam Adebayo Points Prop: Under 17.5
- On a per-game basis, Bam Adebayo gives the Heat 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He also averages 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
- Saturday’s over/under for Adebayo is 17.5 points, 2.9 fewer than his season average.
- Adebayo is 34-for-73 at going over his points prop this season.
- The Celtics have been getting things done at both ends of the court this year, ranking fourth-best in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and fourth-best in points allowed per game (111.4).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.
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