Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 26, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 26, 2023

The Atlanta Braves (31-19) play the Philadelphia Phillies (23-27) after Austin Riley homered twice in an 8-5 victory over the Phillies. The game begins at 7:20 PM ET on Friday.

The favored Braves (-158 moneyline odds) take the field at home against the Phillies (+133). The matchup has an over/under of 10 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below reference odds valid as of May 26, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Braves vs Phillies Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Braves -158 +133 10

Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have been favorites in 36 games this season and won 22 (61.1%) of those contests.
  • Atlanta has a record of 11-5, a 68.8% win rate, when favored by -158 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Braves have a 61.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 27 of 42 games with a total.
  • In 42 games with a spread this season, the Braves are 16-26-0 ATS.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 19
ERA 4.15
K/9 10.0

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been victorious in five, or 41.7%, of the 12 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Philadelphia has been listed as an underdog of +133 or more on two occasions this season and lost both games.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 42.9% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Philadelphia’s games have gone over the total in 20 of its 43 opportunities.
  • The Phillies are 19-24-0 against the spread in their 43 games that had a posted line this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 4.2
HR 11
ERA 4.45
K/9 10.4

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Jared Shuster

  • Shuster has a record of 1-1-0 ATS in two starts with a spread this season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw six innings against the Seattle Mariners, giving up one earned run while allowing one hit.
  • Shuster will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • Shuster’s team won his only start as a favorite this season.
  • Shuster’s team is 1-3 when he starts this season.
  • In the two games with a total started by Shuster this season, the teams hit the over once.

Braves Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
A.J. Minter 23 23 29 7.43 0 7
Jesse Chávez 20 21.1 25 2.11 10 1
Nick Anderson 20 22.1 27 3.63 8 1
Joe Jiménez 16 16.1 22 4.41 2 0
Kirby Yates 16 17.2 23 3.57 3 0

Phillies Probable Pitcher – Taijuan Walker

  • Walker gets the start for the Phillies, his 11th of the season. He is 3-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The righty last pitched on Sunday against the Chicago Cubs, when he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings while giving up two hits.
  • Walker will try to record his sixth matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 4.6 innings per appearance.
  • The Phillies were the underdog on the moneyline for two Walker starts this season — they split the games.
  • Walker’s team has won six of his 10 starts.
  • Walker has had nine starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and five of those games finished over the total.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Gregory Soto 24 22 27 5.73 8 1
Seranthony Domínguez 24 20 22 4.05 6 0
Connor Brogdon 21 25.2 23 2.45 3 0
Craig Kimbrel 20 18 30 6.00 3 5
Andrew Vasquez 14 22.1 20 1.21 0 0

Braves Hitting Trends

  • The Braves have a 17-7 record this season in games when they hit at least two home runs.
  • Atlanta has won each of its 11 games this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club has collected at least eight hits 37 times this season, and has a 25-12 record in those games.
  • Atlanta has a 25-6 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Braves are 10-8 in the 18 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • They are 10-4 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 13 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 11-2.
  • In 36 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 21-15.
  • In 22 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 19-3.
  • In 16 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 11-5

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (-158)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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