5Dimes released their regular season prop bets for players to lead the league in Passing, Rushing and Receiving yards along with regular season MVP odds. These odds give us a look into how Vegas models are predicting this season will play out. There are some eye opening things that Vegas is telling us based on these prop bets right now. We will take a closer look at the receiving yard prop bets today and finish up with passing and rushing articles in the coming days. Below are 5 wide receiver fantasy football observations Vegas appears to be telling us based off of the odds at 5Dimes.
1. Dez Bryant 2nd overall+500
Although Bovada has the Dallas Cowboys expected win total sitting at 7.04 wins 5Dimes seems to think that they will be playing a lot of games from behind and have Dez with the second best odds to lead the league in receiving yards behind Megatron. Demaryius Thomas, ranked 1b behind Megatron by most fantasy analysts, projects to score more touchdowns but 5Dimes ranks him third for receiving yards. I still envision the Cowboys losing a lot of close games when they attempt to come from behind and think Dez’s fantasy numbers will be a big beneficiary of playing in these scenarios. 5Dimes tends to agree and Dez should be coming off your draft board no lower then the 4th overall receiver in all formats. He also could be an interesting contrarian play in large field tournaments week 1 facing off against the banged up 49ers defense. Most will still view the 49ers defense as some sort of extraordinary unit judged off of past years performances.
2. Julio Jones 4th Overall +1200
His ADP has been steadily climbing and news out of camp has been nothing but positive so far for Julio Jones. He has legit #1 overall wide receiver talent and did play a second half of football on the foot he broke before being pronounced done for the year. Injuries are random but looking for guys who tend to play well through injuries and dings and not let it effect them is something of value and often overlooked by fantasy players. Julio Jones fits as one of these players. If he plays 16 games this year he will put up remarkable numbers. The Saints secondary has improved significantly but I expect a high O/U for week 1 in Atlanta and think Julio makes a very solid first week play on Fanduel priced as the 6th best receiver behind Marshall and Green.
3. Eric Decker and Michael Floyd 31st and 32nd Overall +10000
Although it would be absolutely shocking for a Rex Ryan led Jets team to have the #1 yards receiving WR in all of Football Decker continuously seems under ranked compared to the value different fantasy sites are placing on him. He is the #1 receiver on this team but I do not think he is going to be getting the red zone targets that a lot of fantasy analysts appear to be predicting. I think it may be time to temper some expectations for him in this offense. He is a player that is extremely hard to predict but does not offer enough upside to be worth the uncertainty. Michael Floyd on the other hand is the one player I think should be bet at his current price. In year 3 with another year in Bruce Arians offense this could be Floyds coming out party. He does play in the brutal NFC West but at +10000 he is tough to pass up. I also like him as a week 1 option facing off against San Diego which should have another high O/U in week 1.
4. Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee Jacksonville teammates
Yes, the banged up Cecil Shorts sprints into a 13th overall ranking. Bovada has Jacksonville propped at 5.41 wins and 5Dimes must be projecting a significant amount of junk time production from both the Jacksonville teammates on this list. With the news Cecil Shorts is going to miss several weeks Marqise Lee should see a big jump in ADP currently sitting at 166.65. He is currently the 65th wide receiver on average taken in MFL10s in the past two weeks. With how high 5Dimes has Cecil Shorts, if he were to miss any amount of time, Marqie Lee would be a screaming bargain until his ADP adjusts significantly.
5. Jeremy Maclin Not Ranked
Sometimes no noise speaks louder then any other noise. I feel like this is one of those situations. Frankly Jeremy Maclin is extremely tough to project in this Chip Kelley led offense. It appears that Vegas is afraid to make a read on him by not offering any odds on him for this prop. The amount of reps this offense is capable of getting off should lead to numerous opportunities. He is currently the 30th receiver based on his MFL10 ADP but with the amount of upside he offers there is no reason to take Eric Decker over him in any sort of best ball format. Week 1 against the Jags could be a track warmup for this Eagles offense. Chip Kelley is known to leave the gas on in all occassions. At $5000 you will have to have some exposure to him in GPP formats.
|13||Cecil Shorts III||+4500|