As we arrive at Week 13 of the National Football League season rolls around, the calendar flips to December and the games get bigger as we travel down the home stretch of the regular season. With four teams on bye, there are 14 games on the slate including 12 on Sunday, which means tons of wagering options at online sportsbooks. So without any further delay, let’s get to some Week 13 NFL betting odds, previews, and predictions.
Week 13 NFL Betting Lines
Whether you’re signed up for DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, or another one of the many reputable mobile sportsbooks out there, you’ll undoubtedly be able to access a wide range of NFL odds and markets. Below are the opening lines for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 matchups and predictions
Thursday, Dec. 2 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints ()
The Cowboys and Saints both played on Thanksgiving (and lost), so there’s no rest advantage for either side and Dallas isn’t even traveling on a short week. It’s not comfortable to back Dallas as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road, but it’s even less comfortable taking New Orleans. The wrench thrown into this is that Mike McCarthy won’t be on the sidelines, but Dan Quinn has head coaching experience and it shouldn’t change too much when it comes to making a pick.
Taysom Hill will be starting at quarterback and Mark Ingram will be back in the fold, but Alvin Kamara is still missing and the Saints have no passing offense to speak of. To make matters worse, its supposedly iron-clad run defense has been leaky of late and will be tested by one of the best offensive lines in football.
Dallas is also getting healthy after having played exactly zero snaps with its full complement of offensive lineman and wideouts, but that’s due to change in Week 13. Amari Cooper is activated and CeeDee Lamb is back, while Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and La’el Collins should all be in there.
This adds up to the Dallas offense making noise against a defense that hasn’t played up to the same level that we saw early in the season. Dallas was done in by poor pass defense and 166 yards in penalties, both of which are fixable. Historically, Taysom Hill games are also unders and New Orleans isn’t trying to get into a shootout that it can’t win, so look in that direction as well.
Picks: Cowboys -4 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
Sunday, Dec. 5 (1 p.m. ET)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins ()
This week, the Dolphins get the New York team they aren’t quite as accustomed to seeing. While Miami will be happy to know the Giants are almost as bad as the Jets, this line is a telling one. The Dolphins have now won four games in a row and are a home favorite of -2.5 or -3 at most sites, telling us oddsmakers see the Giants and Dolphins as just bout even in this matchup.
One thing to mention is that by this point in the season, the Dolphins must be tired. They traveled to London in mid-October and got no bye afterward, then played six straight games coming into this one. The Giants are off a big win against a division rival and with a somewhat similar defensive effort, this should be a one-score game. New York allowed a ton of yards on the ground but caused four turnovers, an area of the field we’ve seen Miami struggle.
Picks: New York Giants +3 (-110), Over 42.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans ()
The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run game, and that just isn’t going to happen in Week 13. The Texans’ defense as a whole hasn’t been all that bad, but it still ranks 26th in yards per rush and just allowed 4.6 YPC and 157 total yards on the ground to the lowly Jets offense. One can only imagine what the Colts’ offensive line and Jonathan Taylor are capable of.
This spread is a large one, especially on the road, so try to wait on a -7 for the Colts if you can. Our favorite bet is on the over, as a couple of Indy touchdowns could open up the back door with a garbage-time score for Houston.
Picks: Over 46 (-110), Colts -7.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions ()
The Lions are winless and despite a few solid efforts, are just as bad as the record indicates. On the other side, Minnesota is 5-6 and is undoubtedly better than that record. With the Lions missing D’Andre Swift, the Vikings’ defense should be able to help its offense a bit more. That said, 10 of the Vikings’ 11 games have been decided by one score so it’s hard to give away a full touchdown. Plus, the Lions have some extra rest coming into this game.
In the end, trends are made to level out and time off doesn’t matter as much when the talent disparity is so wide. Plus, the only one that did end by more than one score was a 30-17 Minnesota win over Seattle. This one gets to double digits, even if the Lions are coming off a Thanksgiving cover.
Picks: Vikings -7 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets ()
So Week 12 was a letdown for the Eagles and a boost for the Jets. The former turned the ball over four times and lost to the rival Giants, while the latter rallied to beat the Texans (and fall in the draft order for no reason at all). So when Philly plays at MetLife for a second week in a row, what can we expect?
Well, expect the Eagles to run the ball. Philly has totaled over 200 yards on the ground in three straight games, and the only reason it didn’t beat the Giants was because of the miserable -4 turnover differential. And expect Eagles fans to pack the stadium once again too, hoping for a better result.
The play is on the over because the Jets’ defense will be the latest victim of the run, and the Eagles’ defense doesn’t get enough pressure with its front four to afford to blitz as little as it does. Believe it or not, the Jets were a top 10 offense on third down before going 2-for-13 in Week 12 and it scored 21 points despite gaining 266 total yards against Houston.
Picks: Jets +7 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears ()
Because the Bears played on Thanksgiving, Chicago gets almost as much rest as the Cardinals, who were on a bye in Week 12. The public will be all over Arizona, especially if Kyler Murray returns to action after an extended absence, and the Bears just failed to cover against the Lions. But all the more reason to wait for this number to rise and strike with Chicago at its highest point.
The Cardinals are miles ahead of the Bears, that isn’t really the question. But we’re counting on a little bit of rust from Murray and playing the matchup between Arizona’s 30th-ranked run stop win rate and the Bears’ fifth-ranked rushing offense (PFF) with David Montgomery.
Picks: Bears +7.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals ()
The Bengals and Chargers appear to be headed in opposite directions and based on Week 12, the decision would appear easy. Los Angeles is the worst run defense in the NFL and it was on display again in a loss to Denver, while Cincy gained 198 yards on the ground en route to a blowout win over Pittsburgh.
In the end, the Chargers’ biggest issue against Denver was the untimely failures of its offense including multiple turnovers from Justin Herbert. But none of that changes that it can’t stop the run to save its life, and it’s really hard to bet on a team that can’t get off the field.
Oddsmakers set this line at Cincy -2.5 and will let the public decide, and most seem to be on the Bengals as the line moved to -3. While it’s not advisable, we’d roll with Herbert one more time and hope the Chargers catch the Bengals on a bad defensive day, which can happen.
Picks: Chargers +3 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons ()
The Buccaneers hung 48 points on the Falcons in Week 2 and even though the scene shifts to Atlanta, what is any different. If anything, the defending champs are rounding into form at the right time while the Falcons are even worse off than they were before considering Calvin Ridley isn’t in the lineup.
The Week 13 slate is riddled with these large road favorites, and there’s no doubt some of them are going to get burned. But when we put the Bucs’ top-ranked offense (DVOA) up against the 30th-ranked unit, there’s no choice but to give the 10 points and just hope the Tampa defense doesn’t have one of its bad days on the road. To us, this has something like 34-17 written all over it as the Bucs run away in the second half.
Picks: Buccaneers -10 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110)
Sunday, Dec. 5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Washington at Las Vegas Raiders ()
Are the Raiders back? After a couple of tumultuous weeks, Las Vegas rebounded and most recently put up 36 points on the Cowboys at Jerry World on Thanksgiving. With 10 days to prepare for Washington after the WFT played on Monday Night Football, giving just 2.5 points seems like a gift. It also feels like a trap.
The WFT defense was in great form against Seattle, but the Seahawks also can’t stop or generate pressure. Washington’s defense is still 31st in DVOA and 26th in yards per play, regardless of the Week 12 result. On the other side, Las Vegas was just 3-for-13 on third down and still managed 509 yards of total offense.
All that said, the WFT offense is actually a top-five group in EPA per play over the past month, largely due to the success of its passing offense. In that same time span, the Raiders are dead last in the NFL against the pass, a departure from what we saw early in the season. But with the Raiders getting a long rest and Washington getting a short week, we’ll take the bait.
Picks: Raiders -2.5 (-105 or better), Over 49.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams ()
The Rams haven’t won a game since Halloween, and we expect that to change in Week 13 when they host the Jaguars. Los Angeles has dominated every lesser opponent it has seen this season from Chicago to the Giants to Detroit to Houston. While we have some questions about Matthew Stafford dealing with elbow and back injuries, we don’t think those are a problem in this game against the 31st-ranked DVOA defense in football.
Stafford has thrown a pick-six in each of the past three games and the Jags’ defense has played better over the past month. Both are due for regression, one positive and one negative. Take the Rams and the big line if you must take a side, but also look at the over.
Picks: Over 48 (-110), Rams -12.5 (-110)
Sunday, Dec. 5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers ()
After the Steelers’ performance in Week 12, is there any way one can comfortably back this team? Its run defense is supposed to be its calling card, but Joe Mixon and the Bengals put up nearly 200 yards on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t help, and that’s another reason why Baltimore at a field goal or less is the pick here.
Listen, Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog in general, particularly at home, has been impressive in the past. But at some point, the trends don’t matter. The Ravens have their own flaws and this game should be close, but Baltimore is the only one of these teams that has been able to grind out without its best game when it matters, while Pittsburgh shows up too late (Week 11) or folds as the game goes on (Week 12).
Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks ()
Sunday Night Football is already can’t-miss television and an NFC West matchup is an added bonus. Sure, the Seahawks sunk like a stone with and without Russell Wilson, but this division always seems to beat up on one another.
The Seahawks have played to the over exactly once this season while the Niners are at their best running the football with the 7th-ranked DVOA rushing offense in football. And it apparently doesn’t matter how much Seattle throws, the awful offensive line isn’t going to give Russ any time to cook. For those reasons, we are on the under at 46.5 or higher
As for a side, the hook is with Seattle but the bet is going to be with San Francisco, even at -3.5. You can buy this to -3 at around -120 for some safety against a push, but Seattle isn’t good enough against pressure and on third down to score enough against an aggressive San Francisco defense.
Picks: Under 46.5 (-110), Niners -3.5 (+100 or better)
Sunday, Dec. 5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs ()
The Chiefs and Broncos will play twice in the final month of the season, but this first matchup is reliant almost solely on whether Teddy Bridgewater can play and how healthy he is. The Broncos’ reliance on getting turnovers to score is not what we’re looking to put our money on, so Teddy needs to be at full strength to even consider a play.
Coming off the bye, the Chiefs will be a popular play here, especially while the spread is under 10 points. We’d love a chance to take the road underdog with this many points, especially considering the Broncos have a higher EPA/play than Kansas City since Week 7. But the Broncos’ reliance on getting turnovers to score is not what we’re looking to put our money on.
The Chiefs’ turnover troubles are behind them and the Broncos’ offense doesn’t have enough firepower to keep up with an offense that should score at least a couple of times after having a week off. Assuming Bridgewater isn’t 100 percent, that is.
Picks: Chiefs -9.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)
Monday, Dec. 6 (8:15 p.m. ET)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills ()
Sometimes, NFL schedule-makers save the best for last. And in a week with plenty of attractive matchups, this could very well be the best one. The defending AFC East-champion Bills are home favorites of about 3.5 points and while seeing them win would surprise nobody, the Pats and the points is our play here.
Since Week 7, the Patriots’ defense leads the NFL in EPA per play by a healthy margin. Oh, and the offense also leads the league in the same category. So while Buffalo’s high-octane offense and top-ranked DVOA defense looks like its head and shoulders above New England, it really is not.
New England’s pass defense is excellent and Buffalo’s run game just isn’t good enough to put fear into Belichick. The Saints didn’t show it, but the Bills as susceptible on the ground and the Pats are PFF’s top-ranked rushing offense. Expect the Patriots to possess the ball and keep it close.
Picks: Patriots +3.5 (-110), Under 45 (-110)