Hey y’all! Real quick: THANK YOU to all of the veterans out there who have fought for this great nation and to those currently serving in the U.S. Military.
Please send your thoughts and prayers to Paris, France as well as Japan.
I’m trying the new format once again this week after getting good feedback last weekend. This new format will still feature the same amount of research an in-depth analysis but will focus on which plays to use in which formats. PLEASE give me feedback on this by utilizing our new “comment” section on the site or feel free to let me know on Twitter! I cannot improve unless I hear back from y’all!!
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If you already have a DraftKings account but are new to college football, read up on the rules here.
Note: Effective 11/3, DFS Report will no longer be covering the Tuesday or Thursday slate of college football but instead cover the early Saturday slate, in-depth.
To help us find the best plays for you to cash, we will be implementing a value system based on the scores for the last four $3 CFB Redshirt contest on DraftKings for the early Saturday slate. We will use average of the top scores* each week to set a total optimum score for GPP’s and a total minimum cashing score to see what it takes to finish “in the money.”
Players will be broken down by position into two groups: “safe plays” — plays that can be confidently used in “cash games” and as a solid core group of players to build your team around in GPP’s, and “GPP plays” — plays that are tremendous upside but also a low “floor” or potential for a “bust” game.
10/17: 192 cashes, 311 wins (295 in 2nd)
10/24: 183 cashes, 288 wins
10/31: 210 cashes, 334 wins
11/7: 199 cashes, 333 wins (310 in 2nd)
Average over the last 4 weeks: 196 cashes, 306.75 wins*
*for 10/17 and 11/7: the “wins” score was over 10 points above second-place, which I consider an outlier. Due to this potentially skewing the data, I used the 2nd place score of 295 and 310, respectively
So how will we determine which players to use in each format? I am implementing a value system for this article.
How the value system works
The total salary allocated in DraftKings’ CFB is $50,000. To use the value system, you will take the salary of each player (the first two numbers) by the value you would like that player to reach. Example: For a player to reach 4X value at a salary of $5000, the player would score 20 points (5.0 x 4). If you used ALL of the salary allocated and each player hit exactly 4X value, you would score 200 points, 4 points over the scoring threshold we are trying to reach to “cash” in GPP’s. Obviously, you want to score as many points as possible, so look for players who are candidates to reach 5 or 6X value before selecting a player expected to reach 4X.
4X value = good play
5X value = great play
6X or more value = elite play
For each player, I will use the value system based on his salary to project how many points we need him to get to “reach value.” For cash games and “safer” plays, a 4X valuation may work dependent on salary. For GPP’s we’re looking for 5 to 6X generally.
One more example: If I player is minimum salary ($3,000) and is thrust into the starting lineup, a 5X value would be perfect in any format. Let’s say a player is ($8,000) and has not scored more than 32 FPS all season. He’ll be fortunate to even reach 4X value, leaving much more to be desired.
Safe Plays
Quarterbacks
J.T. Barrett ($8,600): Ohio State — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Barrett is still under-priced and has averaged 39.71 since taking over as starter. He should easily hit 4X value against a mediocre Illinois D.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,500): Texas Tech — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Kansas State struggled early vs. Baylor and I expect them to do the same vs. another high-powered offense in Texas Tech.
Deshone Kizer ($8,300): Notre Dame — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Kizer has averaged just under 40 FPPG his last two contests and I expect him to lead the way with Prosise expected to be limited/out.
Parker Boehme ($4,000): Duke — Projected Value: 4X-10X*
The asterisk is in place because as of now, starting QB Thomas Sirk ($7,000) is questionable with an upper body injury. If Sirk is indeed ruled out, Boehme becomes a MUST-PLAY. He’ll be practically a lock for 4X value with 40 point upside. Boehme is a junior out of Jacksonville who is a dual-threat at the position. Pittsburgh ranks 89th in the league in total defense.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,600): Mississippi State — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Wendell Smallwood ($6,700): WVU — Projected Value: 4X-6X
While we still have to worry about Rushel Shell stealing some carries, Smallwood is the clear #1 talent and is in a favorable match-up vs. Texas’ 90th-ranked run D.
Sony Michel ($6,600): UGA — Projected Value: 4X-6X
The explosive sophomore faces off vs. the 94th-ranked rush defense and should be in for a very solid day.
Wayne Gallman ($6,500): Clemson — Projected Value: 4X-5X
Jovon Robinson ($4,700): Auburn — Projected Value: 4X-8X
Robinson has out-carried his teammate Peyton Barber 45-21 the past two contests and is priced way too low this weekend. The best part is? His potential upside is tremendous.
Ervin Phillips ($3,600): Syracuse — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Wes Brown ($3,000): Maryland — Projected Value: 4X-7X
Brown takes over as starter this week and should reach 4X value with ease at minimum-price despite still being asked to split carries with fellow back Brandon Ross.
Wide Receivers
Aaron Burbridge ($7,200): Michigan State — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Jakeem Grant ($6,500): Texas Tech — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Tyler Boyd ($6,400): Pittsburgh — Projected Value: 4X-5X
James Washington ($5,700): Oklahoma State — Projected Value: 4X-7X
Jaylen Samuels ($4,900): North Carolina State — Projected Value: 4X-5X
Ricardo Louis ($4,800): Auburn — Projected Value: 4X-6X
Allen Lazard ($4,700): Iowa State — Projected Value: 4X-6X
GPP-Only Plays
Quarterbacks
Trevone Boykin ($10,100): TCU — Projected Value: 3X-6X
The price is very high for Boykin in what is sure to be a blowout. Boykin may be done at halftime, but could still hit 40 FPS in that time.
Dak Prescott ($7,500): Mississippi State — Projected Value: 3X-6X
The only reason Prescott is a “GPP-Only Play” is because of his match-up. He’s averaged just under 45 FPS/game over the last three contests and has been one of the most consistent options on the season. Look for him to surprise some people today.
Mike Bercovici ($6,700): Arizona State — Projected Value: 2X-6X
In a match-up of the two most disappointing PAC-12 teams, Bercovici has the chance to shine. The Huskies are nothing more than just average vs. the pass and Bercovici has shown 40+ point upside at times. He’s a bit of a risk, but an option to consider if you’re taking the contrarian route.
Joe Hubener ($6,500): Kansas State — Projected Value: 3X-8X
Everett Golson ($5,700): Florida State — Projected Value: 3X-5X
Golson returns from his injuries and takes on NC State at home in a game with an over/under of 55. NC State is decent vs. the pass, allowing just 207.4 yards per game through the air but Golson’s depressed price puts him in play.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,900): Florida State — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Cook’s price lands him in the GPP-Only section. He’s one of the top backs in the nation but it’ll be tough to reach 4X value vs. NC State’s 15th-ranked rush defense.
Demario Richard ($7,100): Arizona State — Projected Value: 2X-6X
Richars likely will reach 4X value today, but he’s only surpassed 20 carries two times this season, which is why I’m forced to put him as a GPP-Only play.
Elijah Hood ($6,600): North Carolina — Projected Value: 3X-6X
De’Andre Washington ($6,500): Texas Tech — Projected Value: 3X-6X
De’Veon Smith ($6,000): Michigan — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Joseph Yearby ($5,800): Miami (FL) — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Mike Warren ($5,600): Iowa State — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Charles Jones ($4,100): Kansas State — Projected Value: 3X-7X
He’s seen 34 carries over the past two weeks and is in a more than favorable match-up.
Wide Receivers
Josh Docton ($8,400): TCU — Projected Value: 1X-6X (expected to be limited)
Will Fuller ($7,100): Notre Dame — Projected Value: 2X-5X
Pharoh Cooper ($5,700): South Carolina — Projected Value: 3X-6X
De’Runnya Wilson ($5,600): Mississippi State — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Calvin Ridley ($5,200): Alabama — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Malcom Mitchell ($4,600): UGA — Projected Value: 3X-6X
Tim White ($4,600): Arizona State — Projected Value: 2X-7X
Fred Ross ($4,300): Mississippi State — Projected Value: 1X-5X
*Note: Team statistics are based on yardage allowed per game*
Thanks for reading and good luck to your teams today!
GO DAWGS
Tyler
