Ever since the National Football League schedule was released back in May, the Week 12 slate was circled on the calendar. It’s late November, Thanksgiving is here, and we’ve got a unique NFL schedule compared to other weeks.
There are two teams on bye and 15 games in total, beginning with the Thursday slate on November 25. It’s a special holiday edition of NFL football with three games spread across the entire day. Eleven more contests will kick off on Sunday before the final game of the week on Monday Night Football. Let’s get a look at the NFL Week 12 betting odds from a range of online sportsbooks including some of the biggest names in the industry such as FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings.
Week 12 NFL Betting Lines
NFL Week 12 matchups and predictions
Thursday, Nov. 25 (3 games) | Thanksgiving NFL Picks
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions () – 12:30 p.m. ET
If the Detroit Lions are going to win a game this season, this game against Chicago may be the last realistic opportunity. Since teams don’t go winless very often and the Bears are the opponent, it makes sense that people would jump on Detroit as a live underdog this week. That said, betting on favorites has also worked historically on Thanksgiving dating back the past 15 years or so.
From a betting perspective, Andy Dalton starting for the Bears does complicate things if you’re looking at Chicago. But we expect the Bears to lean on David Montgomery against a Lions run defense that Pro Football Focus ranks 27th in the league.
With a banged-up Jared Goff on the other side, Chicago’s only job is to somewhat contain D’Andre Swift. There’s no question that Dan Campbell should pull out all the stops as he tries to win a game, but Detroit’s offense just has too many injuries up front and doesn’t get enough done on early downs. Matt Nagy, who is a dead man walking in terms of having a job, should scratch out a win in what is rumored to potentially be his last game as Bears coach.
Picks: Bears -2.5 (-114), Under 41.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys () – 4:30 p.m. ET
After getting blown out by the Bengals, the Raiders begin a stretch of three road games in four weeks when they travel to Dallas on Thanksgiving. In the past, people have looked forward to a Cowboys meltdown with the entire country watching, but I don’t think that happens this Thursday.
The Cowboys are still the highest-graded offense in football according to Pro Football Focus and we should fully expect a better output than what we just saw at Arrowhead when this team didn’t reach the end zone.
Much of that PFF ranking is due to the strength of the passing offense, which is where the Raiders excel, so we are expecting Dallas to go the other way and establish the run. After all, the Raiders do rank 25th in yards per rush on defense. It didn’t work against the Chiefs but the Cowboys still have the highest-rated run-blocking unit in football. Plus, Las Vegas is an elite very strong pass rush and if Kansas City can notch five sacks and three turnovers, the Raiders can too.
If the game script does indeed involve running the ball, we can see Dallas controlling the clock and keeping this score relatively low. Think back to the game against the Chargers early in the season, which ended 20-17, only Dallas scores a few more points. All that said, giving away more than a touchdown in a game that trends under, especially when you throw in all the injuries.
The Cowboys’ offensive line is finally healthy, and it looks like Zeke Elliott will be also. But Dak Prescott may not be, and Amari Cooper will be out while CeeDee Lamb is playing but coming off a concussion. It feels like a game that Dallas squeaks out of with a win while missing some key pieces. Dallas is an ideal teaser leg for anyone who likes those bets.
Picks: Raiders +7.5 (-110), Under 51 (-110)
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints () – 8:20 p.m. ET
I don’t know if anyone else was surprised by just how easy with was for the Eagles to run on the Saints in Week 11, but 242 yards on the ground against the top-rated DVOA run defense was startling. Now, New Orleans turns around on a short week to host another team that lost in embarrassing fashion, the Buffalo Bills.
Speaking of strong run defenses getting gashed, Buffalo allowed a staggering 264 rushing yards to the Colts. The Saints actually ran it well on Sunday but were down by far too many points to stick with the ground game. But without Alvin Kamara, it’s hard to guarantee anything for New Orleans.
Let me say I’m perfectly aware of Sean Payton’s dominant ATS record as an underdog, on the road, and coming off a loss. This game happens to cover all three of those, and it’s a hard trend to ignore. But this isn’t Payton’s ideal version of the Saints, this is not a great spot to face the Bills.
There’s nothing better than coming back on short rest for Buffalo because it knows it’s a much better team than how it played in Week 11. But for the Saints, we aren’t sure the same can be said in its current form. With the Bills finally giving away a palatable number of points, this is the time to bet on a bounce back.
The Saints aren’t winning any shootouts, so the goal is going to be ball control. Whether or not that’s possible due to the injuries remains to be seen, but it should be a slow-moving game for the Saints unless things get out of hand early. Keep an eye on the under in addition to the Bills at anything -6 or better.
Picks: Under 46.5 (-110), Bills -4.5 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 28 (1 p.m. ET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts ()
Everyone loves a good strength-on-strength matchup and that’s what we get here with the Bucs’ run No. 4-ranked DVOA run defense going up against Indy’s rushing offense starring Jonathan Taylor. But underlying numbers may suggest that even Tampa Bay is no match for what the Colts are doing on the ground.
The Colts went for 264 yards last week with Taylor notching 185 of them and five (!!!!!) total touchdowns against Buffalo. You can safely assume the Bucs will try to force Carson Wentz to throw the ball, but Tampa’s defense ranks 20th in EPA per rush play over the past five weeks, so there’s no guarantee it’s able to fare much better than Buffalo. Over the same stretch of time, it’s no surprise that Indy’s rushing offense leads the NFL in the same category.
Picks: Over 51 (-110), Colts +3 (-110)
New York Jets at Houston Texans ()
Outside of anyone gambling on this game, we’re not sure who will be watching Jets-Texans in Week 12. That said, there’s always value to be found, and it might be on New York here. After Houston beat a seemingly unstoppable Titans team on the road, it is giving away just a field goal to the lowly Jets. Feels too good to be true.
Tyrod Taylor’s return breathed some life into the Texans, and Zach Wilson coming back may do the same thing for the Jets is there in Week 12. The rookie makes the Gang Green offense much more dynamic and once you add in emerging weapons like Elijah Moore, things could start to come together late for a young Jets offense.
This isn’t about stats because you can pull any number of terrible rankings for either side to make your point. It is simply a pick on the line, which suggests to me that oddsmakers are begging you to take Houston after what happened last week. You can’t trust bad NFL teams and believe that Houston is still very bad, just as the Jets are. Consider taking the free points and holding your nose.
Picks: Jets +3 or higher (-110), Over 44 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants ()
The Eagles have scored 70 points in the past two games and it’s happened because of the run game. Philly ran over the Broncos with 216 rushing yards before totaling 242 in Week 11 against the Saints’ elite run defense. When it comes to handicapping this game, we have to ask ourselves whether the Giants are equipped to fare any better. And we can’t confidently say yes.
Big Blue’s defense ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA, 21st in run stop win rate, and 23rd in early down success rate. The Eagles are PFF’s No. 2-ranked rushing offense, complete with a top-five mark in yards per rush and early down success rate. Success with the ground game takes the heat off Jalen Hurts and sets up some manageable third downs, where the Eagles rank sixth.
Picks: Eagles -3.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins ()
The Panthers’ resurgence with Cam Newton was short-lived after Carolina fell to the Washington Football Team at home, and we have no idea what to make of this game. Neither do the oddsmakers, which is why you can get either team around even money.
According to Pro Football Focus, the highest-graded area of the Dolphins is the passing offense. The same offense that ranks 30th in yards per pass and dead last in pass block win rate. The Panthers have plenty of issues but they also have Christan McCaffrey and can score enough points to win this game. On defense, Carolina can and will put pressure on Tua and Miami’s mistake-prone offense and do enough to win the game.
Picks: Panthers ML (+100 or better), Under 43 (-110)
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots ()
The Titans’ run of victories over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints (all in a row, mind you) came to a crashing half when the 1-8 Texans pulled off a stunner in Week 11. So was it an aberration? Or is there a bounce-back game coming in Foxboro for Mike Vrabel as he faces Bill Belichick?
The Titans’ defense has stepped up in a huge way over the past two months, but I’m a believer that this group is due for regression. The Pats’ efficient offense led by Mac Jones is ranked No. 2 overall by Pro Football Focus and Tennessee’s run defense ranks 25th in total DVOA. We expect new England to control the ball with the ground game with ease.
On the other side, the Pats’ defense has allowed 13 points in its last three games. The Titans threw the ball 19 times on first down in Week 11, but the New England defense is top five in both early down success rate and pass defense, according to PFF.
Picks: Patriots -5.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals ()
The Bengals are another team that you can’t figure out because the week-to-week results make no sense. It did come out of the bye to beat a reeling Raiders team pretty handily on the road, but will it be able to dominate the Steelers for a second time this season? We’re not betting on it.
There isn’t anything particularly attractive about Pittsburgh on offense, and its defense just gave up 41 points to Los Angeles. But we wouldn’t expect the same result when it’s 40 degrees in Cincinnati on Sunday. We think the defense can help it keep things close because the Bengals struggle to protect Joe Burrow while the Steelers are top five in pressure rate. Pittsburgh has also been decent on third down and in the red zone on defense, though that all disappeared against the Chargers.
Picks: Under 46.5 (-110), Steelers +4.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars ()
After taking the Falcons against New England last week, we should really be swearing off Atlanta for good. But this may be the only possible situation remaining to back the Falcons in some way, so I am taking it. Jacksonville played admirably for a couple of weeks there and if they do it again, they will beat Atlanta. But It think we’ll see more like the Jags team that San Francisco played against, while the Falcons will produce enough on offense now that they aren’t playing a competent defense.
Picks: Atlanta Falcons PK (-110), Over 46.5 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 28 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos ()
This line feels like an absolute trap at Chargers -2.5, but we’re taking it anyway. The Broncos’ defense blitzes almost as much as anyone, yet never actually gets to the quarterback. If there’s one thing you don’t want, it’s Justin Herbert with time on his hands. The Chargers’ offense has relied far too much on late-down success this season but if that happens here, they might be okay against Denver’s 26th-ranked third-down defense.
Los Angeles struggles to stop the run but Denver is just an average rushing team and when the Chargers get ahead, it won’t matter anyway. While it’s under a field goal, don’t think about it too much and take the better team.
Picks: Chargers -2.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 28 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers ()
The Rams and Packers are both right in the middle of the NFC playoff picture and this is probably the most highly-anticipated game of the week. While we do believe in the Rams’ ability to fix some things during the bye week, a late-season matchup at Lambeau is usually not the time to be betting against the Packers.
But sharps were wise to Green Bay’s slight stumble in Minnesota and the line reflected it, so we could be seeing that again this week. This was Packers -3 and has since dropped close to a pick’em. With Green Bay’s injuries piling up on the offensive line, plus with Aaron Rodgers (toe), perhaps we need to look at this game in a different light.
For all the Rams’ struggles, this is still the No. 2-ranked DVOA offense in football and ranks No. 2 in yards per play. Los Angeles is still a top 10 team in turnover differential after some of Matthew Stafford’s recent miscues, and we’d be surprised to see those continue.
Picks: Rams +1.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers ()
The Vikings have played in 10 games this season, and nine of them have been decided by one score. The only one that wasn’t was a 13-point win over Seattle in Week 2, while Minnesota’s largest loss has been four points. They’re only getting 3.5 against San Francisco, but it’s enough for us.
The Vikings’ run defense isn’t any good and that is definitely a concern, but the 49ers’ pass defense doesn’t get much pressure and that could afford Kirk Cousins the time he needs to make some plays. Until Minnesota gets blown out, we are taking the free points against any team that isn’t head-and-shoulders above them.
Picks: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-10)
Sunday, Nov. 28 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens ()
The AFC North in prime time is always must-watch TV for NFL fans, and it’s no different in Week 12. The Browns and Ravens gave us one of the most electrifying games of the season last December, a 47-42 Baltimore win. Neither offense has looked too explosive as of late but the Ravens should get Lamar Jackson back, and that could make all the difference.
The Browns’ offense has major issues, and this matchup isn’t one where Cleveland can rely on running the ball alone. Baker Mayfield against the No. 1 pressure defense in the NFL isn’t a recipe for success, and assuming Jackson is healthy, we think the Ravens move the ball through the air and score some points.
Picks: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Monday, Nov. 29 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington ()
We seem to be living in a bizarro world where the Seahawks’ offense gets Russell Wilson back but can’t score, while the WFT defense loses Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but somehow looks to be improving. It makes this game feel virtually impossible to handicap.
I guess we’ll side with the under since Seattle has played just one game to the over this season. The Seahawks run the fewest plays of any team in the league, and Washington’s offense isn’t exactly lightning quick. If we’re picking a side, we’re going down to the Seattle ship because one team feels due for positive regression, and the other negative.