Without a doubt, Danny Lee’s WD last week sank a ton of lineups. But because I am a “Glass half full” kind of guy, I like to look at the brightside in everything. The silver lining for me was that I scaled back my action considerably last week with it being a no cut event and the field wasn’t super appealing to me. This week is also a no cut event so I wouldn’t suggest going crazy with your action but I do plan on having much more at play with the stacked field.
This week, we have our first World Golf Championship of the 2015-16 PGA Tour season! It will be hosted at Sheshan International Golf Course in Shanghai, China for the third consecutive year. Sheshan International is a par 72 course that measures just under 7,300 yards so it is a bit longer than the courses from the past couple weeks, clearly favoring bombers. Let’s get to it!
SPOILER: I REALLY LIKE PAUL CASEY!
Par 5 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 22.5%
The defending champion, Bubba will definitely be one of the highest owned of the week but for good reason. He ranked top 20 in GIR Percentage last season and was 3rd in Par Breakers and 1st in Par 5 Scoring. He checks every box for this course and should be the top play of the week. The only reason I have a little doubt is because every time I have ever been on Bubba, he plays very, very poor. I know there is nothing to back this up other than superstition for me but just in case you roster him everywhere and he sucks, feel free to put 100% blame on me!
Odds To Win: 15-1
Expected Ownership: 18.4%
Another former winner here, Dustin Johnson will be another popular play this week. Much like Bubba, he matches up very nicely with this course and it is no surprise that he won here in 2013. DJ was ranked 1st in Driving Distance last season so we know his length alone makes him a favorite this week. Along with his long bomb, he ranked 5th in Par Breakers and 3rd in Par 5 Scoring. DJ was in contention so many times last season and Sundays were not kind to him. I expect that to change this season and wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him contend this week.
Odds To Win: 30-1
Expected Ownership: 12.8%
Once again, Casey is one of my top plays of the week! On a course where putting isn’t necessarily crucial, Casey’s accuracy and ball striking should play a huge part in giving him an advantage this week. He shot 4 consecutive rounds below 70 last week at the CIMB classic so he has some good form coming in as well with the top 25 finish. Casey ranks in the top 20 in Par Breakers this season, he is top 5 in both Driving Accuracy and Par 5 Scoring, and 1st on Tour this season in GIR Percentage. All the Paul Casey this week, ALL OF IT!!!!
Odds To Win: 50-1
Expected Ownership: 15.5%
Piercy has arguably the hottest form coming into this week, with two back to back top 25s, including a top 10 last week. He is still a bit underpriced in my opinion. Piercy is not super long off the tee but he can definitely keep up (averaging 303.1 this season). He ranks 16th on Tour in Par Breakers and is top 10 in Par 4 Scoring. If you are looking for a balanced roster with most of your guys around 8K, Piercy is a safe bet this week.
Odds To Win: 125-1
Expected Ownership: 9.2%
Berger showed just how streaky he can be last week at the CIMB posting rounds of 76, 66, 67, and 76 to close it out on Sunday. That being said, Berger ranks in the top 10 in Driving Distance this season and his length should give him an advantage along with all the other bombers. Prior to last week, Berger had 4 straight top 20s dating back to last season. His price this week is just too low to pass up when you dont have to worry about him missing the cut.
Odds To Win: 200-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
Hend is not the typical bomber recommendation as most of the others but there really is not too many enticing players to take a chance with this week that are priced below 7K so I think Hend is our best bet. Keeping the small sample size in mind, he ranks 15th in GIR Percentage this season and is 7th in Par Breakers. He is coming off a solid finish just outside the top 25 last week and if you need some salary relief for a stars/scrubs approach, Hend could be your guy.
Guys I’m Fading: Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Luke Donald
My Winner: I really want to go with my main man, Paul Casey BUT I think he is a better bet for a top 5 or top 10. I think we see Dustin get his first W this season here in Shanghai. NOTE: This probably means Rory will win it.
Best of luck this week, Bring home the Bacon!!!!
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