We are well past the official midway point of the NFL regular season and as we hit mid-November, the action is as nonstop at online sportsbooks across the United States. The Week 11 slate kicks off on November 18 with TNF and the full schedule features 15 games since just two teams are on bye, and that is going to mean plenty of markets to bet on.
Week 11 NFL Betting Lines
NFL Week 11 matchups and predictions
Thursday, Nov. 18 (8:20 p.m. ET)
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons ()
The Patriots silenced the doubters once again as they dominated Cleveland in Week 11, allowing just seven points and 217 total yards. This comes after holding Carolina to just six points and beating the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. New England has now won four games in a row and gets to face an Atlanta defense that ranks 31st in total DVOA after allowing 43 points.
This opening line was slight, but it has since ballooned to around six points, and that’s our only problem. Yes, Atlanta is a much lesser team and is traveling on a short week. But the combination of New England’s defensive performances and Atlanta falling flat in Dallas has made this line just too big for our liking.
The Pats have a strong defense and move at an average pace, so our favorite play is on the under at 47 points. Outside of that, we’d have to hold out noses and lean toward Atlanta with the hopes that +7 comes. That, or put the Pats in your teaser.
Picks: Under 47 (-110 or better), Falcons +7 (-105 up to -115)
Sunday, Nov. 21 (1 p.m. ET)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles ()
The Saints are on the road for a second straight week, this time in Philadelphia for an early kickoff against the Eagles. Both of these teams managed to cover the number in Week 10, though it happened in very different ways. New England was down for most of the game and scratched its way back for a close loss, while Philly put it all together in Denver and easily won the game thanks to its rushing offense.
The Eagles looked phenomenal against the Broncos, rushing for 214 yards. But the matchup with Denver’s run defense was part of the reason for that, and there will be some more resistance from New Orleans, which ranks as the No. 1 DVOA run defense in football. If Jalen Hurts is forced to throw to make the Eagles’ offense go, that changes things.
As for Trevor Siemian, he was asked to do more than Sean Payton would like when he threw it 50 times in Week 10. But he graded out as one of the best QBs last week according to PFF, and that was without Alvin Kamara. But even if the Saints’ dual-threat running back isn’t yet healthy, we love New Orleans in a low-scoring game. The Saints are also an excellent teaser leg to get through three and seven.
Picks: New Orleans Saints +2 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets ()
The Dolphins and Jets will play twice in a five-week stretch with the first matchup coming at MetLife Stadium in Week 11. Outside of fans of these teams or anyone who decided to bet on this game, it won’t really be the most popular one on the schedule. But it’s a rivalry game, and those can be fun no matter the teams.
The Jets have lost three of four, allowing 31+ points in each game. In the three losses, they’ve allowed 45+ points on each occasion. Despite the fact that Miami’s offense isn’t any good, that isn’t a team we can back in any way, shape, or form. Since it seems Gang Green can’t make any stops, we’ll go with over 45 points. As for the spread, giving away points with Miami doesn’t feel good at all but since it’s just a field goal, that’s the lean.
Picks: Over 44.5 (-110 or better), Dolphins -3 (-105 or better)
Washington at Carolina Panthers ()
After a few terrible weeks in a row, the Panthers finally enjoyed a Sunday. P.J. Walker was serviceable in place of Sam Darnold, and Cam Newton’s return to the team sparked the offense to a 24-point win over Arizona as 10-point underdogs. This week is another winnable game, as the Panthers host Washington.
The WFT came off the bye and was clearly ready for the defending champs, finally showing the teeth that we all expected to see from this defense before the season began. Was it just the extra preparation, or something we should become more accustomed to seeing?
The X-factor is and always will be Christian McCaffrey because he’s the single best player on the field. He totaled over 150 yards while catching all 10 targets in Week 10, and he’s simply indispensable to this offense. The WFT defense could be coming around but it still ranks 25th in yards per play and 27th in total DVOA, so we’re siding with Carolina as it finds its groove on offense with its all-world Mr. Everything back and Newton starting under center.
Picks: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (-110 or better), Under 43.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills ()
A good portion of the NFL-watching universe will have their attention turned to Buffalo when the Colts come to town in Week 11. This is a rematch from Wild Card Weekend last season, which resulted in a close victory for the Bills. This year, both teams are going back to the playoffs and this is a great measuring stick for where each one stands.
The Colts’ pass defense can be shredded by the right offense, and the Bills have all the skill in the world there. But we have to wonder whether Buffalo’s inability to run the ball in this game could lead to some bad down and distance situations for Josh Allen. While Buffalo’s defense does rank first in yards per play and has excelled against the run, it also hasn’t been tested in the way that the Colts’ front and Jonathan Taylor are about to.
The Bills are seven-point favorites for this game and my first reaction is that it’s just too many points. Of course, one bad Carson Wentz turnover could change that. Buffalo is fully recovered from its slip-up in Jacksonville a couple of weeks back, but Indy’s running game is on another level currently and we still think the Bills’ defensive stats could be aided by the schedule.
Picks: Colts +7 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110 or better)
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns ()
The combination of the Lions’ admirable performance in Pittsburgh and the Browns getting clobbered in New England may lead to the public backing Detroit, but we’re going in the opposite direction. The Lions are riding as high as they can be after their first non-loss of the season, but a home game for Cleveland is something that can bring this group back down to earth.
The Browns were held to 217 total yards including just 99 passing yards for Baker Mayfield. But Detroit still has the 32nd-ranked defense according to PFF and may not be able to rely on inclement weather as it did against Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s offense may also get Nick Chubb back, which does wonders for Mayfield and the entire offense.
This number is pretty high but at anything under 10 points, we’ll take the Browns running away on Detroit. Handing the ball to D’Andre Swift 30+ times isn’t going to work on this run defense, and Jared Goff’s struggles in cold weather could present themselves here.
Picks: Browns -9.5 (-110), Under 45 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars ()
The 49ers will travel across the country on a short week for an early start against the upstart Jaguars in Week 11. There’s no question which team is stronger overall, but the Jags’ performances the past two weeks should be a bit of a comfort to anyone looking to go in this direction.
To us, this comes down to whether the Jags can stop the run, because the Niners want to keep it on the ground. San Francisco is a top 10 team in yards per play but this is also the worst third-down offense in football. Jacksonville held Indianapolis to just 4-of-15 on third down in Week 10 as its defense toughened up in the final half of the game. At six points or less, we’ll stick with the home team for now.
Picks: Jaguars +6 (-110 or better), Under 47 (-110)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans ()
Thanks to the strenth of its defense, the Tennessee Titans are on a serious roll. At 8-2, this group has won six games in a row including matchups against Buffalo, Kansas City, Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and the Saints. The last couple have even come without Derrick Henry, but nothing seems to matter at this point.
The Titans will make it seven in a row against Houston, but is the spread too high at -10.5? While most of the Titans’ recent wins haven’t been blowouts, the level of the opponent has been very high. Against a weak Houston team beginning to count the weeks until the end of the season, there’s really no choice but to take Tennessee and hope you get a -10 somewhere throughout the week.
Picks: Titans -10.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings ()
Aaron Rodgers’ return led to an eighth straight win with the future Hall of Famer under center, and the defense also impressed by shutting down the Seahawks in Russell Wilson’s return. This week, the Packers visit rival Minnesota, which just knocked off the Chargers on the road. Do we like Green Bay as a short favorite?
In theory, yes, especially art -2.5. But if you can get +3 or more, Minnesota may have the best chance yet at knocking off Green Bay with Rodgers in uniform.
The Packers’ defense ranks sixth in EPA per play over the past five weeks, and that has included Arizona, Kansas City, and Seattle with Wilson (albeit in bad weather). But while Minnesota’s defense doesn’t jump off the page in terms of stats, it also hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any home game yet this season. That may chance on Sunday, but it doesn’t mean the Vikes can’t cover.
Green Bay’s offense could be hampered to some degree by the loss of Aaron Jones but even if it’s not, the Packers’ defense may have some holes. That EPA per play number we shared above is overall but when you break down to the run game, Green Bay ranks 26th over the past five weeks. Minnesota had the benefit of feasting on the Chargers’ awful run defense last week, and could have a favorable matchup again this week.
Picks: Under 49.5 (-110), Vikings +3 (-105 or better)
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears ()
The question for me with any game Baltimore plays is: can this team stop the Ravens on the ground? If the answer is yes, we start looking into the other side. But in this case, the answer is no. Chicago’s defense ranks 30th in Rush EPA over the past month and has been shredded on the ground by lesser rushing attacks. Baltimore’s offense was 2-for-14 on third down last Thursday and we don’t see it continuing against a defense that is just average in that category.
All that said, the Bears are coming off the bye so it’s an uncomfortable lean toward Baltimore.
Picks: Ravens -5 (-110), Under 46 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 21 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders ()
So the Raiders are coming off perhaps their worst game of the season, which followed losing to the Giants as favorites. And the Bengals are coming off a bye, which came following their two worst games of the season. There’s nothing like a coin-flip matchup between two teams you can’t trust to get the juices flowing on a Sunday afternoon.
The Raiders’ defense has been average but one thing it does is generate pressure without having to blitz. The Bengals are bottom-third in pressure allowed and let Joe Burrow be swallowed up by several defenses this season. The passing game is electric, but it’s one area Las Vegas may be able to stand its ground against the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Picks: Las Vegas Raiders ML (+100 or better), Over 49 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 21 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs ()
If you like offense, and we all do, tune in to the nationally-televised Chiefs vs. Cowboys game at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon. The total is up around 54.5 and Kansas City is a home favorite after knocking off Las Vegas, but the wrong team may be giving points here.
There’s no doubt that the Chiefs’ offense is starting to look like its former self after hanging 41 on the Raiders as Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five scores. The defense even produced a couple of turnovers, if you can believe it. But it’s that defense against Dallas that worries us.
It could be a bit frosty at Arrowhead but there won’t be any snow on the ground, and that means the Cowboys’ offense will be full-go against a very, very bad defense. Things are especially bad against the run (Dallas is 5th in yards per rush) but the Chiefs’ tendency to blitz could spell trouble in the passing game as well. Kansas City ranks second in blitz percentage and we’ve seen Dallas have success against Carolina and Tampa Bay, which like to play a similar style.
Picks: Cowboys +3 (-110 or better), Cowboys ML (+125 or better), Over 54.5 (-110 or better)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ()
Another NFC West matchup in prime time? Nobody is complaining. This time, it’s the Cardinals visiting the Seahawks with the home team as slight underdogs. The assumption is that Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will play, but since we aren’t sure of that, is the right team favored?
Sure, Seattle’s offense got shut down by Green Bay in Week 10. But there was inclement weather at Lambeau and it was Russell Wilson’s first game back from injury. The Seahawks’ offensive numbers still hold remnants of Wilson’s early-season impact, and we can’t understate his impact. Especially against a Cardinals defense that seems to be getting exposed by some natural regression to the mean over recent weeks.
Seattle is another team that makes for an excellent teaser leg through the key numbers of three and seven but they can also win this game outright. To play it safe with the spread, you can buy it up to +3 for -125 or less.
Picks: Seahawks +2.5 (-115 or better), Seahawks ML (+108 or better), Under 50 (-110)
Sunday, Nov. 21 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers ()
Mason Rudolph threw the ball 50 times in the Steelers’ Week 10 tie (gross) against Detroit. I know that number is inflated by overtime, but it’s safe to say that isn’t the recipe for success. This team doesn’t even want to throw the ball too much if they have Big Ben under center since the biggest weapon on the unit is obviously Najee Harris.
Luckily for Pittsburgh, the Chargers have no ability to stop the run. It’s been seen over and over again during this four-game losing streak, and the Steelers could be next to exploit the weakness. Los Angeles is dead last in run defense DVOA and regardless of who it plays, it gives up chunks on the ground.
The Steelers are also a team that can stop the Chargers’ offense in its tracks because of its early-down flaws. Justin Herbert’s offense has relied on third down to make plays all season, ranking 26th in early-down success rate. The Pittsburgh defense is average on early downs but is top 10 on third, and that could pose an issue for Los Angeles.
Picks: Steelers +5.5 (-110), Under 48 (-110)
Monday, Nov. 22 (8:15 p.m. ET)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ()
The Giants are visiting the defending champs as big-time underdogs but have the benefit of coming off the bye week and having extra time to prepare. Big Blue also has a history of keeping close in these large-spread games, including this year against Kansas City and last year against these Bucs.
Tampa Bay came out of the bye sleeping a little, but there’s just too much of a mismatch here with the Bucs’ offense and the Gaints’ defense. New York will be a bit overmatched but its stingy red-zone defense can potentially force Tampa to settle, and these two teams are actually even in turnover differential this season.
It’s unlikely the Giants have the firepower to keep up if the Bucs are firing on all cylinders, but this is a lot of points to be giving away. New York at +11.5 feels like the play, as does an under 50.5.