To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to help take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
Carson Palmer is running away with the social mentions this week. I do not think he will be the highest owned QB but he will be in the top 5. The blowout potential is there so if I was going all in on one QB Palmer would not be it.
Andy Dalton has the second highest social buzz and I am expecting him to be the highest owned QB in GPP todays. The line has moved from a pickem all week to -1 Steelers. I don’t mind having some Andy Dalton exposure but where I do I will be mixing and matching stacks. I do like the negative correlation stack with Gio Bernard this week. Gio isn’t your traditional running back and believing that a pass catching specialist type of back has the same negative correlation as a traditional running back with a QB is an oversight.
Peyton Manning has some decent social buzz. I am at the show me state with Peyton at this point. I need to see a good game from him where his arm looks like its capable of making plays before I roster him in DFS again.
Ben Roethisberger returns from injury and has the next highest social buzz. I expect his ownership to be relatively high. I like the Antonio Brown stack but I love the Martavis Bryant stack. Everyone expects this game to turn into a shoot out.
Eli Manning and Drew Brees have the same social buzz. They also have very similar ownership levels from Thursday contests. I think both are going into the weekend lower owned then they should be. They should both be on your radar. The Cincy/Pitt game is getting all the love and attention but this Saints/Giants game has just as much if not more fantasy goodness.
The last QB I want to mention is in a spot where paying up could be a contrarian move. Aaron Rodgers is on the road against the Broncos defense. The Packers are now favored in this game and it has a solid over under. I think a lot of DFS players are overlooking that Vegas thinks this could be higher scoring then we anticipate. I will be going with Rodgers in some spots as this will most likely be the lowest owned we can get him all season.
Darren McFadden being named the starter in Dallas has caused his social buzz to go through the roof. I have really liked how he has looked all season. He is nothing more then a GPP flyer at home against the Seahawks.
Todd Gurley will be the highest owned running back. I said last week the hardest position to fade due to ownership percentages is the Running Back position. They are just so volume dependent and it is obvious the volume he is going to get. I will have exposure to him although it will be more limited then the masses.
Devonta Freeman is definitely in play this week. His price is high enough to have scared off a lot of people. I think he will still check in around the 20% range. The question you need to ask yourself is if you would rather have Freeman or Lev Bell or Adrian Peterson. It is unbelievable that we have gotten to the point that we have to ask that question.
Justin Forsett will be the next highest owned running back and could even eclipse Freeman if enough people pivot to Bell or AP.
Two low owned running backs that I really like are Ronnie Hillman and Gio Bernard. It is really tough to predict their usage but I think game flow will allow both of them to get a number of touches which could be great for fantasy at a reduced cost.
***Update*** Hillman has been named the starter. His ownership should see a nice bump but he is definitely worth rostering.
Geoff touched on Charles Sims in his contrarian plays article. I also think he has some sneaky potential in GPPs today.
Nate Washington (yes Nate Washington) is dominating the social mentions at WR. Revenge game or otherwise, I am completely off of him. Now that lots of people have abandoned Nuk I love to have exposure to him. He should feast on the Titans defense.
Alshon Jeffery has a lot of social buzz but I am anticipating a number of people pivoting off of him to Mike Evans. I really like both but have to side with Mike Evans as well. Evans should have a huge adjustment in his ownership levels from Thursday. I anticipate he will be the second highest owned wide receiver.
Stephon Diggs had the highest ownership levels on Thursday. Steve Smith is the same price but also has pretty high ownership from Thursday.
If I am rolling with Andy Dalton at QB a stack I really like is with Marvin Jones. Jones has almost no mentions. He is my favorite low priced option at wide receiver.
Pretty ugly slate for Tight Ends again.
Tyler Eifert and Greg Olson will be the two highest owned.
San Diego is saying Gates is now a GTD. Obviously whichever way he falls will have a big impact on Ladarius Green.
Crocket Gilmore has gotten some late buzz as well. I think I would rather roll with a Benjamin Watson or Larry Donnell in that case. And don’t forget about Heath Miller with Big Ben back as well.