The NBA Daily Plays for Friday, October 30th breaks down the best Stud, Value and GPP plays at each position for FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports contests. The Stud & Value plays should be considered relatively chalky and should be safe for cash games. The GPP plays dig a little deeper to hopefully find some low owned talent who could pay off big in a Guaranteed Prize Pool contest. Our NBA Projections will be coming next week. Lets take a look at the game lines and then go over my favorite plays for this massive Friday NBA slate.
Game Lines
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (FD $10,400, DK $9,900) –
It is officially Steph Curry’s world we are all just living in it. After putting up a 40 point opening night Curry finds himself in the highest over/under and closest spread game of the night. This game should be competitive throughout on the road against the Rockets. Also for those who didn’t keep up with the offseason movement in the NBA the Rockets no longer have the lockdown defense of Patrick Beverly. He has been replaced by one of the worst defenders in Ty Lawson. Lock Curry into your lineups as he is definitely the stud to pay up for in your DFS lineups.
Damian Lillard, Portland TrailBlazers (FD $9,100, DK $9,300) –
Lillard received a $100 price increase on Fanduel and a $400 price increase on DraftKings. This is still not enough with all of the usage that he has absorbed this season. He was one of the highest owned players on Wednesday and I expect that trend to continue tonight. He is being asked to shoulder the offense in Portland and should be in for another big night on the road against the Phoenix Suns.
Values
Isaiah Canaan, Philadelphia 76ers (FD $5,300, DK $4,800) –
Canaan had a very encouraging opening night logging 38 minutes. He should be in line for a big role until some of the injured players make their way back to the lineup. This is the lowest total over/under on the night but that should not scare you off of Canaan. I expected a price increase for him after Wednesday’s performance. FanDuel bumped his price up $100 but DraftKings left it the same. Take advantage of his value well you still can.
Ty Lawson, Houston Rockets (FD $7,300, DK $5,600) –
I love all of the guards in this matchup of the Rockets and the Warriors. This should be an incredibly fast paced game that is tight to the end. I expect Lawson to focus more on trying to beat Curry on the offensive end then defending him. Klay will have the task of trying to slow Harden down so I expect Lawson and Curry to go back and forth on the offensive side of the ball. Lawson also logged 37 minutes opening night which is extremely encouraging to see. He is much more of a DraftKings value play then a FanDuel value.
GPP Plays
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (FD $10,800, DK $10,100) –
This is a spot where paying up for a player can sometimes be a contrarian play. Most people will be focused on Curry and Lillard. We could see Westbrook have a reduced ownership level in what is a very juicy matchup against the Orlando Magic. The Magic couldn’t stop any point guards last year and that trend looks to be continuing again this year. As long as this game stays close Westbrook could be a great pivot off of the other high priced point guards.
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets (FD $5,500, DK $5,700) –
Mudiay is definitely a player I am targeting in GPPs. He does draw the Ricky Rubio defense who is definitely still a plus defender which is why he finds himself in the GPP section. Still, it is hard to argue with his opening night of 38 minutes. The only issue that really jumps out is his 11 turnovers. On DraftKings losing .5 points does not affect you to much but the -1 you receive on FanDuel can add up quickly. This is why his pricing seems off between the two sites. But if he can cut down on the turnovers he will be in line for a big night in a competitive game.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden, Houston Rockets (FD $10,700, DK $10,300) –
By this point you are probably sick of me talking about the Rockets/Warriors game but a game like this doesn’t come along every slate. Usually when we have an o/u this high it looks like it will be a blowout. Klay is a solid defender but I do not think anyone in the league can guard Harden when he is on. At home against the defending champs, I think Harden has a big game and am trying to find any way that I can to squeeze both him and Curry into lineups for a game stack.
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (FD $8,200, DK $6,800) –
A lot of things may have changed in LA this offseason but Kobe launching 24 shots a game apparently hasn’t. He is still underpriced at DraftKings which is the site where I am targeting him. Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore do not strike fear into me. Is Kobe a must play? No, absolutely not but Shooting guard seems pretty thin besides the obvious value play so I will be rolling out a few shares of Kobe to get some differentiation at the position.
Values
C.J. McCollum, Portland TrailBlazers (FD $6,000, DK $6,400) –
McCollum saw a $1,600 price increase on DraftKings from Wednesday. He jumped up $800 on FanDuel. I still expect him to be a very popular play on FanDuel. If we focus only on Wednesday it does look like McCollum is going to absorb a lot of the usage that left the Blazers last year. This is one where we will have to measure industry sentiment throughout the day. If he is still going to be highly owned even after his drastic price increase I think a fade could be considered. If it seems like a lot of people are off of him then I don’t mind playing him on FanDuel especially.
GPP Plays
Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics (FD $5,700, DK $4,500) –
Avery Bradley logged the most minutes of any Celtic player on Wednesday and did almost nothing with it. He should see DeRozan the majority of the time who cannot be considered a + defender. This game should stay competitive throughout and I expect Bradley to bounce back after his awful performance on opening night. He makes for an interesting GPP play because the minutes are definitely there and almost no one will be on him.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (FD $6,200, DK $6,000) –
The Alphabet is in action for the first time tonight after sitting out Game 1 due to a suspension from last years playoffs. Giannis is the type of player who can accumulate stats in a number of different categories which makes him the perfect GPP play. Even if he isn’t scoring he can still have a solid fantasy performance. He should matchup with Otto Porter the majority of the time which is definitely not a scary matchup by any means.
Small Forward
Studs
Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (FD $10,700, DK $9,700) –
At home against the Miami Heat, Lebron will do everything he can to win this game. My only fear is the Heat can’t keep this game competitive and Lebron doesn’t end up getting his full complement of minutes. I am also a little weary of rostering Lebron on games that the Cavs are expected to win easily. I do think that Lebron looks to score early and that should set the tone for a solid fantasy performance.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets (FD $6,900, DK $6,300) –
Gallinari was the difference maker on Wednesday. He appears to be the guy that Denver is going to rely on. This should be a fast paced competitive game against the T’Wolves and I can see another performance like Wednesday. His price did not rise as high as I thought it would. He saw a $300 salary increase on FanDuel and a $500 increase on DraftKings. That was not high enough to drive anyone off of him so I would expect his ownership to be relatively high. He does not have the greatest matchup against Andrew Wiggins so this might be another one to monitor industry sentiment throughout the day to try and get a feel for how highly owned he will be.
Values
Demarre Carroll, Toronto Raptors (FD $6,300, DK $5,500) –
Carroll logged 41 minutes on opening night showing that Head Coach Dwayne Casey is going to give him some serious run this year. He is listed as a GTD in some spots but all reports seem to point to him playing tonight. The pace of this game may not be the best on the slate but the minutes are hard to argue with. As long as he plays and no reports say that he should be limited, I think he is a great value to roll out at both FanDuel and DraftKings.
GPP Plays
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz (FD $7,200, DK $6,900) –
Most people will not touch Hayward after his dud on opening night. I just can’t get away from his matchup against the 76ers. I also expect this game to stay a lot closer then the Vegas line currently indicates. This should result in Hayward seeing another 35+ minute night. He should be able to pick up some more scoring then he did opening night.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (FD $10,000, DK $9,400) –
Another situation where paying up could be a contrarian move in GPPs. If it isn’t obvious by now I do think the Thunder are sneaky on the road against the Magic. The Magic do not seem interested in playing much defense which fits in well with the Thunder players racking up fantasy points. It is just tough to choose what Thunder superstar I like the most. Durant will most likely be my lowest owned of the 3 stars but I will still try to have some exposure to him on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Studs
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks (FD $8,300, DK $7.700) –
Monroe had a very successful debut for the Bucks on Wednesday. He had 17 FGA for 22 points and 14 rebounds. I do not expect him to get 35 minutes again as I think Henson will get some more run if he does play (Henson is currently questionable). Still I think the Bucks plan on feeding Monroe early and he should continue to have success in this offense. *Please note he is now Center eligible only on FanDuel.*
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks (FD $7,700, DK $7,700) –
If the Hornets can keep this game close with the Hawks I think Millsap is in line for a big game. Marvin Williams is one of the worst defenders at the 4 position in the NBA. He is too small and not quick enough to keep up with Millsap. The Hawks should be looking to take advantage of this matchup all night long. Most nights Millsap is overlooked so I would expect his ownership to be lower then what it should be. Take advantage of him in GPPs and hope that this game stays close so he can stay up around the 36 minute level.
Values
John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks (FD $4,400, DK $3,900) –
Henson is currently listed as GTD. If he does go he should be in line for more then the 10 minutes he received on opening night. It seemed like Kidd just rode the hot hand on Wednesday and left Monroe in the game for longer then he anticipated. Henson is the type of player who can accumulate fantasy points in a number of ways. At his reduced price, I can justify rolling the dice with him in a few spots if he is indeed going to play.
Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder (FD $6,900, DK $5,900) –
I love the matchup for Ibaka in Orlando. He should fly under the radar and at his reduced price he could pay off his salary accumulating rebounds and defensive stats in a fast paced game. I think Orlando is able to keep this game closer then the anticipate 8 point line at home. If so, Ibaka should get a full complement of minutes. He should be able to pay off his salary on DraftKings and might even be able to sneak in a double double bonus.
GPP Plays
Amir Johnson, Boston Celtics (FD $5,300, DK $4,700) –
The Celtics have a log jam at the power forward position. David Lee should draw the start and Jared Sullinger sees some time at the position as well. Amir Johnson also got 20 minutes in their opening game and stacked the score sheet. He does a little bit of everything. He is another player where if we were guaranteed 25 minutes he would be on most of my rosters. Since I cannot guarantee that he comes in as a GPP play who could give you quite a bit of upside if he gets hot and Brad Stevens chooses to leave him in.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (FD $8100, DK $7400) –
The line on this Heat/Cavs game is closer then I would have anticipated. If the Heat can keep it close I think Bosh is an interesting GPP play. He should see quite a bit of time matched up with Kevin Love. Call it narrative street call it revenge game call it whatever you want but I think Bosh is going to be amped for this game and should see a number of opportunities with Love defending him. Vegas expects this game to stay relatively close and I anticipate Bosh to be the reason why the Heat are able to keep it close in Cleveland.
Center
Studs
Demarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings (FD $10,900, DK $10,200) –
Demarcus Cousins will be the top center on almost any slate that the Kings are playing in. His performance on Wednesday had a lot of positives. It was surprising to see 5 3PA from him but he did shoot 4-5 from beyond the arc. He should see plenty of Roy Hibbert who is actually a solid defender but if Hibbert has to chase Cousins around the perimeter he will be in tons of trouble. Demarcus should be able to take advantage of this matchup and if his 3 point shot is falling he will be in line for a huge night. The two studs I will be paying up for are Cousins and Curry.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (FD $8,100, DK $7,200) –
It was encouraging to see Gobert play 37 minutes in the season opener. It looks like he will get tons of run this year. He also pulled down 12 rebounds. I do not expect Derrick Favors to shoulder as much of the scoring load as he did Thursday. Favors will be matched up with Nerlens Noel who is a lock down defender. Gobert should be able to take advantage of his matchup with Okafor and should be the low post player for the Jazz who does all of the scoring on Friday night.
Values
Meyers Leonard, Portland TrailBlazers (FD $5,000, DK $4,500) –
Most DFS players will focus on the Portland guards but Meyers Leonard is a great low cost option at center as well. He played 34 minutes in their opening game and stacked the stat sheet with 12 points and 8 rebounds. He should come close to another double double and like the rest of the TrailBlazers is definitely in play until his price aligns with his usage and minutes on the major DFS sites. Right now it looks like all TrailBlazers are under priced due to the amount of production that left in the offseason.
Joffrey Lauvergne, Denver Nuggets (FD $3,700, DK $4,200) –
This is one of those situations where I wish I could guarantee Joffrey was going to see 25+ minutes. If he gets that amount of time he should definitely exceed value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I think he is definitely in play on FanDuel as he is mispriced compared to DraftKings. This game should stay competitive throughout and is expected to be paced up so I can definitely see Joffrey as a viable punt option.
GPP Plays
Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors (FD $3,500, DK $3,100) –
Andrew Bogut is in the leagues concussion protocol and is not anticipated to play on Friday. Festus should draw the start as he received the block of minutes on Tuesday. Some people might look to Marreese Speights but I think Ezeli is the play. Unfortunately Dwight Howard will be back for the Rockets which means you should have some caution with rolling Ezeli out. I still think he is a valuable min priced punt at the center position and someone to consider if you are looking to fit studs in elsewhere.
