HAPPY HALLOWEEN! I’m sure all of your princess Elsa’s and Star Wars Jedi’s will have a blast 🙂
I will be spending my Saturday in Jacksonville for the GA / FL game and winning $$ from DFS college football like the rest of you, right?
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Illinois @ Penn State (-5) — O/U: 43
Illinois
QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — Wes Lunt ($5,200) hasn’t topped 22.48 points this season and that was back in week 1. Since the first two weeks of the season, he’s averaged just under 12 FPS and should be avoided on Saturday.
RB: Penn State has the nation’s 23rd best defense and will be a tough task for the Fighting Illini offense. With that said, Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($4,400) is the #1 guy for the Illini with Josh Ferguson out and Penn State has struggled a bit vs. the run this season, allowing 157.3 yards per game, 58th in FBS. Vaughn’s match-up isn’t a perfect situation, but he needs just 17.6 points to reach 4X value and is a nice cash game play due to his volume and floor.
WR: Geronimo Allison ($5,100) is the overwhelming leader as the top pass catcher for the Fighting Illini, catching 48 passes (24th in FBS) for 700 yards (19th) and 3 TD’s. He should see a high number of targets, but PSU is very stingy vs. the pass. I personally won’t be playing him, but his price is cheap for a guy with this type of production.
Penn State
QB: Christian Hackenburg ($6,000) had his very first 300-yard game this season last weekend vs.. Maryland but has thrown for over 200 yards just 3 times in 8 games and should be avoided here vs. Illinois’ 36th-ranked pass defense.
RB: Saquan Barkley ($6,600) is clearly the #1 guy for the Nittany Lions and should see 20+ carries yet again. He’s very dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball and although his price is the highest we’ve seen all season, he’s worth a look during GPP’s as he should be very low-owned. Illinois ranks 50th vs. the run in 2015.
WR: Chris Godwin ($4,600) has topped 10 FPS in 6 of 8 games this season and is a nice deep threat. With that said, there’s no reason to turn to him on a slate with several other options.
Mississippi (-7) @ Auburn — O/U: 57.5
Mississippi
QB: Chad Kelly ($7,400) — boom or bust option! Kelly averages over 34 passing attempts on the season through 8 games and over 39 attempts over his last 6 games. He’s had three different games of 36 FPS or more, with a ceiling of just over 41. He’s also had three different games under 17 FPS. Auburn’s defense has allowed 102 points over their last three games, allowing 827 passing yards. I’m expecting Kelly to push 30+ FPS this weekend, which justifies his salary at a 4X value.
RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER: It’s near impossible to determine who’s going to get carries and how many they’ll receive. Simply avoid this backfield.
WR: Even if you’re not targeting Kelly this weekend, you more than likely want a piece of the Mississippi passing game. Laquon Treadwell ($6,700) is the leader in receptions (54), yardage (756), and second in TD’s (5). The struggle is this: Including Treadwell, 5 different receivers have 20+ receptions, with all of them having 2 or more TD’s. Treadwell has been relied on more than ever the past three games, averaging almost 35 FPS, catching 4 TD’s. This is a really tough call. Kelly does spread the ball around a lot, obviously, but I think there will be enough scoring to justify Treadwell’s price. I’d also look to Markell Pack ($3,300) as a candidate to reach 4X value, with the other receivers for MISS being GPP-only — I don’t see enough value in any of them to trust but of course, any of the group could break out. (This includes: Quincy Adeboyejo ($4,900) — hasn’t done much since the first few weeks of the season, but is a deep threat, Cody Core ($4,000) — same story, hasn’t done a whole lot since the first three weeks, although he did have 6 catches for 83 yards last weekend, Damore’ea Stringfellow ($3,900) — not recommended, very little upside, Evan Engram ($3,600) — the TE has reached double-digit fantasy points just once, last weekend vs. Texas A&M.
Auburn
QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER
RB: I hope you took my recommendation last weekend and went with Peyton Barber ($7,400) who posted 41.1 FPS on 37 carries for 120 yards and 4 TD’s. Barber also added a reception for 11 yards. The YPC isn’t exceptional but this kind of volume is great. Mississippi ranks 26th vs. the run, allowing an average of 121.1 yards-per-game, but I expect Barber to have another solid game. He’s a top 5 option for the slate.
WR: Ricardo Louis ($5,000) is reasonably priced and should be in for a big game vs. the 60th pass defense in FBS. Louis is the #1 receiver for the Tigers and should see several targets. With a touchdown, he reaches value with ease. Auburn has been relying on the run recently but expect them to be forced to air it out a bit more in the high scoring affair where they’ll likely be behind most of the game.
Nebraska (-7.5) @ Purdue — O/U: 54
Nebraska
QB: Tommy Armstrong Jr. ($6,600) put up the most passing attempts he has all season last week vs. NW, posting just under 28 fantasy points. We’ll look for a bigger outing this week, such as his two 37 point outings in weeks 3 and 4. Purdue ranks 73rd in pass defense and 99th in rush defense. Armstrong is not very accurate for a FBS quarterback but should produce nicely with high volume. I expect a solid day for the junior, with his legs complementing a 25-30+ FP outing.
RB: Last week I said it’s hard to trust Terrell Newby’s ($5,200) production due to the varying amount of carries he receives, but I do love his talent and upside. He has a rushing TD of 69 yards this season, and I could see him breaking off another big run this weekend. His price is too low in my opinion and I’ll be using him in GPP’s for sure.
WR: I’m kicking myself I didn’t recommend Brandon Reilly ($3,600) last week. I had him in a lineup and took him out before lock. He’s reached value (at this price) 3 out of the 7 games this season. With that said, he’s sitting at 7.2% of the salary cap. I’m not necessarily recommending him, just giving you a cheap option at WR — make sure you understand the potential for a bust, however. Here’s the thing: the Cornhuskers best WR is Jordan Westerkamp ($4,500) who has not reached value the last 4 weeks. Overall, I’d rather go with Newby over any of the Nebraska WR’s but the bottom line is that Purdue’s defense is awful.
Purdue
I’m looking at only one play for the Boilermakers, RB Markell Jones ($4,400). The Freshman will take the role of the top back this weekend with D.J. Knox ($3,800) OUT after suffering an injury vs. Wisconsin. Looking at the surface, Nebraska is 10th vs. the run, holding opponents to just 99.1 rushing yards per game. However, as DK’s player card for Jones points out, Nebraska has allowed 4.1 YPC to Power Five opponents. Either way, the volume Jones could receive (including in the passing game) should allow him to easily reach 4X value at his low price.
Rutgers @ Wisconsin (-20.5) — O/U: 51.5
Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights have a real tough test. Wisconsin is 22nd vs. the pass and 10th vs. the run. Leonte Carroo ($6,400) is a GPP-only at best–that is if he plays. Keep your eye on his status as we approach the weekend.
Wisconsin
QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER
RB: Dare Ogunbowale ($5,700) still figures to get the bulk of the carries for the Badgers on the ground, provided Corey Clement ($4,600) is still out. I expect Clement to be out this week, although, if he were to play (although limited) he’s certainly a GPP flier with his talent and deflated price. Ogunbowale has been less than impressive in his stint as the #1 guy (with Taiwan Deal ($4,200) OUT) and should be only potentially be considered if Clement is ruled out.
WR: Rutgers’ pass defense is..well..practically non-existent. They’ve allowed a miserable 310.6 yards per game through the air, 124th out of 128 FBS teams. With that said, Alex Erickson ($5,200) is in a great spot. Erickson leads the Badgers with 52 catches for 645 yards. Robert Wheelwright ($4,100), the Badgers #1 red zone threat and #2 overall receiver is OUT with a leg injury. While Erickson is the primary beneficiary of Wheelwright’s absence, Jazz Peavy ($2,900) figures to see an increase in targets at minimum salary. He’s not the red zone target Wheelwright was, so be cautious, but I like him a bit better than either of the two TE’s.
Syracuse @ Florida State (-16.5) — O/U: 53
Syracuse
QB: At only $300 more than last week, I’m still a fan of Eric Dungey ($5,300), although he’s in for another tough test vs. FSU’s 27th ranked defense. His mobility increases his upside, and he plays hard. It’s a bit risky, but I think he’s worth a GPP flier at just over 10.5% of your salary cap.
RB: PHILLIPS! Several DFS-ers who follow PlayPicks picked up on Phillips at minimum salary, and he rewarded us with reaching over 5X value at 17.8 FPS. He’s scored at least 14.6 PTS in each of his 4 contests played, and is hard to ignore at his price. He doesn’t get many carries, but is second on the team in receptions (17) and tied for first in TD’s with 4.
WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER
Florida State
QB: Everett Golson ($6,500) still possesses solid upside, but he certainly doesn’t show it on a weekly basis. ‘Cuse is allowing an average of 250.3 passing yards per game, good for just 93rd in FBS, making Golson an option for GPP’s — especially with Dalvin Cook ($9,100) OUT.
RB: The Orange are much better vs. the run, allowing 148 yards per game, 47th in the nation. With Cook out, Coach Fisher said Jaques Patrick ($3,500). It’s kind of interesting that Fisher specifically mentioned Patrick, but I still expect Johnathan Vickers ($3,700) to log several carries. Because of the uncertainty here, I’ll be looking elsewhere at running back.
WR: Kermit Whitfield ($5,100) is really establishing himself as the #1 receiver in Tallahassee. He’s posted double-digit FPS since week 3, and has had 6 or more receptions the last three weeks. He has only 2 TD’s on the season and his price is a bit too high but I feel that he can reach 4X value vs. the Orange secondary.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M (-15.5) — O/U: 57
South Carolina
QB: Lorenzo Nunez ($4,800) is an intriguing play, should he suit up to play. His legs make for some real nice upside vs. a weak A&M defense. Monitor his status leading up to the game but should he play, he’s one of my favorite value plays at QB.
RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER
WR: Pharoh Cooper ($7,000) is one of the top play-makers at his position — he’s just stuck in a bad offense. Still, Carolina seems to have a new fire under their interim head coach Shawn Elliot and I like Cooper as a GPP play that should get overlooked.
Texas A&M
QB: Kyle Allen ($7,300) has been very inefficient lately and I’ll be looking elsewhere at QB on Saturday. Carolina ranks 56th vs. the pass.
RB: Tra Carson ($4,500) is one of my favorite value plays at RB. He receives the heavy majority of carries for the Aggies, and even in a pass-first offense, remains productive. He not only has recived double-digit carries in all but one game this season, but also has contributed in the passing game — catching 12 passes over his last 2 games alone. He’s an excellent cash game play vs. SC’s porous run D.
WR: Perhaps one of the best hidden GPP plays will be Christian Kirk ($6,400) due to his letdown last week. Kirk is part of a crowded WR group, but leads the Aggies in all three major categories. Keep in mind, I’m not too high on Allen this week due to his recent inconsistency, but if he is to bounce back strong, Kirk should be the biggest beneficiary. If you’re a believer in Allen this weekend, Josh Reynolds ($4,400) is a nice “boom or bust” GPP play as well.
Colorado @ UCLA (-23) — O/U: 63.5
Colorado
QB: This game will have a plethora of fantasy options to choose from, and I can’t leave out Sefo Liufau ($6,100). He has 5 rushing TD’s on the season and will likely put up 40+ passing attempts in a game that UC will likely be trailing most of the time. UCLA’s 32nd ranked pass defense looks great on paper, but Vegas doesn’t lie, and it likes UC to put up some points.
RB: The Colorado backfield is a mix and match of 3-4 different players, but with Michael Adkins II ($3,600) OUT, the picture gets at least a little more clear. While Phillip Lindsay ($4,600) is expected to start, the most intriguing option is Donovan Lee ($2,900) who is listed as a WR on DK. Lee received 8 carries last week after Adkins went down and picked up 55 yards. His versatility will lead to receptions as well and he has a great match-up, as UCLA’s opponents average 203.9 rushing yards per game (105th in FBS). Don’t expect more than 10-12 carries, if that, but he should see an increased role and is worth a flier at minimum salary.
WR: Shay Fields ($4,400), the Buff’s #2 receiver and leader in TD receptions, is questionable with an ankle injury. His status has gotten more optimistic each day, as he originally was perceived to be doubtful for Saturday’s game. Ankle injuries are never good for WR’s, especially with a good chance of re-injuring the ankle. I doubt Colorado risks the sophomore this week, but if he plays, he’s a GPP option with solid upside. Regardless of Fields’ status, my favorite Buffs WR is Nelson Spruce ($5,500). The senior is leading the Buffalo in receptions and yardage this year, only behind Fields in TD’s. At his price, Spruce is an elite play for Saturday, and is a must-play if Fields ends up sitting. Spruce’s lowest reception total in a game this season is 5, which happened only once. His price should rise as the season goes on so buy low while you can!
UCLA
QB: Josh Rosen ($7,600) looks to be a safe bet for 20-30 FPS in this one, but I can’t justify his price. I’ll be looking elsewhere if I want to pay up for a QB.
RB: More injury concerns, this time with Paul Perkins ($7,100) who suffered a knee injury his last time out. Although the worst was feared initially, Coach Mora says he’s “on track” to play. My concern is that he’ll be limited and limit not only his own upside, but backup Soso Jamabo’s ($5,300) as well. The verdict: If Perkins is said to be a “full go” (which is unlikely), he’s worth playing at $7,100 vs. UC’s 112th-ranked run defense. If Perkins is OUT, Jamabo becomes a must-play. Keep an eye on this one leading up to game time.
WR: Jordan Payton ($5,800) and Thomas Duarte ($5,700) are both great options vs. Colorado’s 60th-ranked pass defense. They limit each other’s upside, but both have enough value to consider using. Duarte has been a bit stronger of late (5 TD’s over his last 4 games) if you can’t decide which guy to use.
USC (-4.5) @ California — O/U: 69.5
USC
QB: Cody Kessler ($7,900) is one of the most consistent QB’s on the board (taking away his one dud vs. Washington). To reach 4X value, he’d need a little under 32 FPS, a threshold he’s reached just twice. He’ll have a solid day no doubt; I’m just not sold on his price.
RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — Tre Madden ($4,400) is expected to be back this week, limiting his own upside, along with Ronald Jones II ($4,200) and Justin Davis ($3,600).
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,300) is an elite option vs. Cal’s 102nd-ranked pass defense. He should have a monster day. He’s had near 30+ FPS in 5 of his 7 contests and should most definitely reach 4X value.
California
QB: Jared Goff ($8,200) has seen his number of passing attempts increase since week 3 (37, 40, 45, 47, 53) and should put up another 40-50 passing attempts once again. With that said, he needs 32.8 to reach 4X value, a number he has yet to hit this season. He did reach 32.4 in week 5, but his next closest point total came last week vs. UCLA, a 26.7 showing. It’s respectable, but I don’t see Goff paying off his salary.
RB: Why has Goff been throwing so much? Perhaps it’s because this backfield is a mess. NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER HERE
WR: This can be one of the most frustrating teams for DFS. Goff has hit 16 different players, 7 of which have 13 or more receptions. Kenny Lawler ($5,700) is Goff’s favorite option (leads the team in receptions — 39, and yardage — 497) particularly in the end zone where he has 9 TD receptions. The next closest receiver has three. Are there other options than Lawler to consider? No doubt. But each is certainly GPP-only. This includes, Stephen Anderson ($4,200), Bryce Treggs ($3,700), Trevor Davis ($3,500), Maurice Harris ($3,400), Darius Powe ($3,300). Each of these players have had games of 14 FPS or more, with the exception of Harris who posted 10.3 FPS on two different occasions.
Boise State (-20) @ UNLV — O/U: 56.5
Boise State
QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — Expect Boise State to run the ball
RB: Jeremy McNichols ($7,900) is in a great spot. UNLV allows opponents to an average of 183.7 yards per game on the ground. McNichols’ lowest fantasy output so far this season is 24.9. He’s an elite play at RB — if you can afford him, use him.
WR: Since his slow start to the season in weeks 1 and 2, Thomas Sperbeck (6,200) has averaged just over 26.2 FPS per game. He should see little resistance this Saturday and could easily hit 20-25 FPS before this one gets out of reach.
UNLV
There’s no one that really stands out here. I’d avoid the entire UNLV offense.
Clemson (-10) @ NC State — O/U: 50.5
The #3 (NC State) and #4 (Clemson) total defenses face off in this one, making it difficult to trust any fantasy options.
QB: Deshaun Watson ($8,400) is too expensive for my liking. He needs 33.2 FPS to reach 4X value, a number he’s hit just once.
RB: Wayne Gallman ($6,300) — I promise I’m not a broken record… Gallman needs 25.2 to hit 4X value, a total he’s just exceeded just once.
WR: Artavis Scott ($6,400) has upside, but I’m still weary. GPP only.
NC State
The only fantasy option I’d consider for the Wolfpack is WR Jaylen Samuels ($4,700). He’s dynamic and heavily involved in the offense. If NC State wants to beat Clemson, Samuels will need to be heavily involved — and I think he will be. Samuels has 9 TD’s on the year, including 5 on the ground on just 23 carries. I think he definitely can reach 4X value (18.2) even vs. the tough Clemson D.
Maryland @ Iowa (-17) — O/U: 53.5
Maryland
I like only one option from this one and that would be QB Perry Hills ($5,900). Since re-taking over the starter’s job in week 6, Hills has posted point totals of 39.32 and 29.4. Iowa is stingy vs. the run, but Hills is not a traditional runner either. I love his upside at this price.
Iowa
QB/WR: Maryland is dreadful on defense, 108th vs the pass and 80th vs. the run. C.J. Beathard ($5,600) is a nice value play and a very nice GPP pair with returning WR Tevaun Smith ($3,200) who is expected to be a “full go” on Saturday. Smith was projected to be the #1 guy for the Hawkeyes in the beginning of the season.
RB: DK wasted zero time on raising Akrum Wadley’s ($5,700) price after last weekend’s explosion for 47.4 FPS. Do I think he’ll do it again? No. Is everything in place for him to do it again? Sure is. Expect him to reach 4X value with ease. He’s a real solid cash game play for Saturday.
WR: (see above)
Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Texas Tech — O/U: 79
Oklahoma State
QB: Mason Rudolph ($7,000) has not reached 4X value (28 FPS) all season. I’m sticking to the valuation system and avoiding Rudolph. I could maybe see him in cash games because of how awful TT’s defense is but there’s very little upside.
RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER
WR: GPP only plays for OK State at WR: David Glidden ($5,000), Brandon Sheperd ($4,000), Marcel Ateman ($3,900) can all be considered. You have to imagine that one of the three will break out in this one. I’m more likely to go with the likes of Ateman and try to minimize my risk at just 7.8% of the salary cap.
Texas Tech
QB: I fully expect Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100) to bounce back strong in this one. He’s the cheapest we’ve seen him in awhile and I expect a 35-40 FP game from him. He’s averaged 41 FPS at home this season and I think he’s talented enough to use even against the nation’s 18th-ranked pass defense.
RB: Deandre Washington ($5,800) makes a decent play at RB in cash games, but there are several other options I’d look to before him.
WR: Similar situation to California, with a little more upside. The only option you can really trust is Jakeem Grant ($6,500). Grant is a solid option at his price, despite his recent inconsistency. The targets will continue to come and the production should follow. Any other TT WR’s are GPP only.
Oklahoma (-39.5) @ Kansas — O/U: 61
*BLOWOUT ALERT* — With that out there, the entire OU offense can be targeted, while the entire KU offense can be avoided. Kansas ranks 125th vs. the pass and 119th vs. the run out of 128 teams. It should be a nice scrimmage for OU, and be over by halftime.
Georgia @ Florida (-2) — O/U: 46
I will be attending this game, and I definitely expect much more defense than offense. There’s reports varying on who UGA’s starting QB will be, but it is highly likely we’ll see more than one QB at the helm for UGA. Faton Bauta ($3,900) is a hot name right now and provides mobility that Lambert and Ramsey do not, but again, there’s no fantasy value here until we have more clarity. Maybe in this one you’ll finally see the real definition of “SEC defense.” 🙂
For the Gators, Treon Harris ($5,100) should at least be considered. UGA has struggled vs. mobile QB’s this season (Lorenzo Nunez, Joshua Dobbs) and it wouldn’t take much for Harris to reach 5X value at just over 25 FPS.
Tulsa (-2.5) @ SMU — O/U: 75.5
Tulsa
QB: Dane Evans ($8,300) is priced too high for me once again. I promise I don’t have anything against him but I’d rather go for Mahomes in the $8K range. Target his receivers instead.
RB: Zack Langer ($5,400) and Deangelo Brewer ($3,500) are both questionable to play on Saturday. If either plays and the other does not, the starting back is certainly in play for GPP’s. If neither play OR If both play, I’d avoid the Tulsa backfield entirely. SMU ranks 124th vs. the run.
WR: Keyarris Garrett ($7,600) and Joshua Atkinson ($6,300) are both elite options vs. SMU’s 109th-ranked pass “defense.” Use them as such.
SMU
QB: Matt Davis ($7,600) struggled last weekend but still possesses tremendous upside and Tulsa isn’t much better on defense. They’ve allowed opponents to average 301 passing yards per game.
RB: Xavier Jones ($4,100) has an excellent match-up vs. Tulsa’s run defense that allows opponents to average 249.6 rushing yards per game. Davis runs the ball himself quite a bit (leading the team in carries), but Jones is certainly worth a GPP flier.
WR: Cortland Sutton ($4,900) leads the team statistically but is still not producing (in terms of fantasy production) at the rate we’d like to see. He’s definitely the best option for the Ponies but still temper your expectations
Note: Defensive rankings are based upon yardage allowed per-game.
THANK YOU for taking the time to read this. I greatly appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend, best of luck to your teams, and… GO DAWGS!
Tyler
