CFB Saturday Showdown (10/24) Early

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 24, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
CFB Saturday Showdown

Welcome back!  The early Saturday slate is a full one, with 17 games. DraftKings is paying out over $400K in guaranteed prizes and I’d love to help you get a piece of it.



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Note: Effective 10/15, DFS Report will no longer be covering the Tuesday or Thursday slate of college football but instead cover top Saturday slates, early and late. 


Auburn @ Arkansas (-6.5) — O/U: 51


I’d like to call this the “match-up of SEC disappointment) but Auburn is sitting at 4-2 which isn’t awful. Arkansas on the other hand, is bad. They’ll be fortunate just to make a bowl game, which I don’t see happening.






RB: Perhaps the biggest beneficiary to Sean White ($4,900) taking over at QB was RB Peyton Barber ($6,500). Since White took over, Barber has compiled 376 yards and 7 TD’s. That’s in just three games. Expect the Tigers to rely on Barber once again vs. Arkansas, who’s allowed 177.3 yards-per-game on the ground, on average. Expect another 27 carry, 20+ fantasy-point outing for the junior.


WR: Ricardo Louis ($5,000) has also flourished with White at QB, although it does help that former WR D’haquille Williams was kicked off the team. Louis has led the team since Williams’ departure, catching 10 passes for 201 yards. Louis leads the team on the season with 26 catches for 347 yards. He’s certainly trending in the right direction, but keep in mind, it’s going to be either Louis or Barber with the big fantasy outing, and I’m leaning Barber.






RB: Alex Collins ($7,500) has a really nice match-up here. He’s been consistent as they come, averaging 20.2 FPS this season, and prior to last weekend, had 24+ his last three games. He’s the 2nd most expensive back on the slate but a solid cash game play vs. the 101st ranked rush defense in FBS.


WR: Drew Morgan ($4,600) is the #1 guy in the receiving game for the Hogs but I expect them to lean on Collins.


Clemson (-7.5) @ Miami (FL) — O/U: 55




QB: Deshaun Watson ($8,000) has led his Clemson Tigers to an undefeated season thus far, but has topped 26 FPS just once. He’s had more than 12 rushing attempts just once and is really doing damage through the air, tossing 2 or more TD’s in every game this season. He did have 39 FPS last game out, but it will be tough to fit him comfortably at $8,000.


RB: Wayne Gallman ($5,800) is having a great season, and is just a sophomore. He’s averaged 5.5 YPC this season and topped 92+ yards 4 of his 6 games. After scoring 2 TD’s in the first two games, he’s only scored 2 in the previous 4, which is concerning. Also, Gallman isn’t at all involved in the passing game, catching just 4 passes all season. There are better options out there this weekend.


WR: Artavis Scott ($6,200) was the biggest beneficiary of Watson’s big game last week, catching 10 games for 162 yards and a TD. Otherwise, he hasn’t topped 20 FPS all season. Scott is the clear leader in the receiving game for the Tigers, but Watson has several other options he can spread the ball too.


Miami (FL)




RB: Joseph Yearby ($6,200) is without a doubt the best back for the Canes, yet he still continues to lose 10-12 carries to Mark Walton ($3,700) each week. Walton has averaged just 3.8 YPC opposed to Yearby’s 6.2. Clemson’s rush defense is ranked 21st in the nation and will be a tough task for both backs. Yearby has more upside but should be used as a GPP-only play.




Houston (-21.5) @ UCF — O/U: 57




QB: Greg Ward Jr. ($8,800) is one of the top fantasy QB’s in all of college football. His “worst game” was a 30+ point performance. I wouldn’t worry too much about a blowout, because even so, he’ll have racked up the points by then.




WR: Honestly, Ward is fine as a fantasy option on his own. However, he does have a favorite target in Demarcus Ayers ($6,200) who has more than double the receptions (46) of the next closest teammate). The touchdowns haven’t come however, as Ward has rushed for 14, and thrown only 9 — 3 of which went to Ayers. The blowout factor does scare me for Ayers, simply because Houston won’t have the need to throw the ball much.


Iowa State @ Baylor (-37) — O/U: 74.5


*WEATHER ALERT* — Heavy rains are expected throughout this game. Approach with caution. Corey Coleman ($8,900) is the top option at WR, but I’m not sure you want to risk 17.8% of your salary cap with wet, slippery conditions. Even running backs are risky, but if you’re looking for one, check out Mike Warren ($5,900). He’s one of the nation’s best kept secrets, ranking 25th in FBS in YPC (7.0) and rushing for 624 yards over his last 4 games. Baylor ranks 39th in rush defense, but in the impending weather? Anything can happen. Look for all plays from this one to be GPP only. Note: The over/under has fallen a full 7 points since the opening line. It’s still a whopping 74.5 but keep an eye on it to see if it drops any further due to weather concerns.


Kansas State @ Texas (-6.5) — O/U: 46.5


*WEATHER ALERT* — Heavy rains are expected throughout this game. Approach with caution. This one is certainly not like the one above and I’d avoid it regardless. Note: The over/under has fallen 7.5 points since the opening line due to weather concerns. 


Northwestern @ Nebraska (-8) — O/U: 48.5








QB: Take away his 7-point due vs. Illinois in Week 5, and Tommy Armstrong Jr. ($6,100) has averaged 27.64 FPS this week. With his price, he’s likely to hit 4X his value and that’s intriguing. Northwestern is strong defensively, but Armstrong could be the diamond in the rough that will be overlooked. Armstrong has put up the 18th most passing attempts so far this season, tossing 15 TD’s, and rushing for 244 yards and 2 TD’s.


RB: I like Terrell Newby ($5,400) and his price, but I don’t trust him. The upside is there, but he’s just not getting the carries I’d like to see him get to be successful. Deep GPP-only.


WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — The ball gets spread around too much for me.


Pittsburgh (-7) @ Syracuse — O/U: 48.5








RB: Quadree Ollison ($5,800) has been productive since filling in for the injured James Conner but I don’t trust him here vs. Syracuse 42nd ranked rush defense.


WR: I say a player is a #1 option on his respective team quite a bit, but Tyler Boyd ($6,500) is the true #1 possession receiver. He’s caught 41 passes, over 45% of the team’s total receptions. Not to mention, he missed game #1. The fewest number of receptions he’s taken in, in a single game is 5, with the 2nd fewest being 7. He’s not catching as many TD’s as 6 have been split between two other teammates. However, I don’t see him priced this low anymore this season. He’s one of the most talented WR’s in the country and Syracuse is ranked 95th in the nation vs. the pass. Boyd is my favorite play on the slate.



QB: There’s a bit of controversy going on between the SU offensive line and freshman QB Eric Dungey ($5,000) which is concerning. However, he’s dirt-cheap and is true, hard-nosed football player. He’s not afraid to take hits when he runs (which he probably needs to minimize) and is “captain material” according to SU’s SB Nation writer Sean Keely. He’s a candidate to reach 5X his value and I love him for the early slate.






Bowling Green (-14) @ Kent State — O/U: 59


This one should be interesting. Kent State has the 11th ranked total defense and will try to stop Matt Johnson ($8,900) and the 4th ranked Bowling Green offense.


QB: I’m going to side with the Golden Flashes’ defense in this one. With that said, Johnson should have a productive game — just not worth his price IMO. Again, to be clear, he’ll put up some numbers, but I’m not seeing a blow-up performance.




WR: Building on what I said above, I wouldn’t trust Roger Lewis ($8,000) at that price. If you’re looking for a piece of the BGSU offense, maybe look to Gehrig Dieter ($4,900), then Ronnie Moore ($5,000), and Ryan Burbink ($4,800), in that order.


Kent State


NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — There are a lot of guys who contribute on this Kent State team, and frankly, I’m not sure how they’ll hang around in this one. Best of luck to my dad’s alma mater, but I’d avoid any players for the Golden Flashes.


Toledo (-14.5) @ Massachusetts — O/U: 62






RB: This running back group screams “GPP!” It’s a three-headed monster, including Kareem Hunt ($6,400)Terry Swanson ($4,400), and Damion Jones-Moore ($4,300). The latter two had to fill in for Hunt when he was suspended for the first two contests and then missed a couple more games with a hamstring injury. Hunt is the #1 option in the backfield but he’ll still battle for time with Swanson and Jones-Moore. Swanson is the most serious contender, who’s averaged an impressive 7.9 YPC — which is skewed a little due to a 90 yard rush on a single attempt. Hunt’s talent alone is worth $7,500-$8,500, so take advantage of his low price — even with the risk. Massachusetts is ranked 118th out of 128 vs. the run this season.


WR: Eh, this is tough. Really the only option I would contemplate using is Cody Thompson ($3,600) due to his price and big-play ability. He leads the team in yardage (374) and yards per-catch (23.4) despite just 16 catches this season.




QB: Blake Frohnapfel ($5,900) is another candidate to reach 5X value at his salary. Toledo is ranked 88th vs. the pass and Frohnapfel should be in for a really nice game.




WR: Tajae Sharpe ($7,200) is one of my favorite plays on the slate. We’ve talked about Toledo’s struggle vs. the pass. He’s 7th in receiving yards and #1 in receptions. The TD’s aren’t where I’d like to see them, but his price doesn’t justify his production.


Duke @ Virginia Tech (-3) — O/U: 44


There are other games I’d rather target here. The only option I may consider is Isaiah Ford ($4,800), VT’s leading receiver — but beware of Duke’s 2nd ranked pass defense.


Indiana @ Michigan State (-16.5) — O/U: 61.5




QB: Nate Sudfeld ($5,300) is unbelievably cheap for this one. He put up 40+ FPS last weekend, and is in a nice match-up vs. the 75th ranked MICH ST pass defense. He’ll be forced to throw a lot in this one and should easily reach 4X value (hopefully 5X) on Saturday.


RB: Michigan State is much better vs. the run (26th) and the only way I start an IU back is if Jordan Howard ($5,700) is ruled OUT and Devine Redding ($4,900) starts. I’m fairly confident we’ll see Howard at least play in this one, and even that chance is enough to scare me away from the IU running game, especially since they’re expected to be behind for most of this one.


WR: It’s hard to trust any individual in the receiving group here, especially with Mitchell Paige’s ($3,400) big game last weekend which essentially came out of nowhere. I’ll trust Ricky Jones ($4,500) and Simmie Cobbs ($4,000) before Paige, but probably only consider Jones as a GPP pair with Sudfeld.


Michigan State


QB: I don’t necessarily like Connor Cook ($6,700) as a fantasy option (especially at this price) but if you wanted to be extremely contrarian, he’s your guy vs. Indiana’s dreadful pass defense.


RB: With Madre London ($4,200) OUT, LJ Scott ($6,600) just got a whole lot more intriguing. He’s a little pricey for me but should get most of the carries for MSU and he has a nice match-up vs. Indiana’s 71st ranked run defense.


WR: Aaron Burbridge ($6,700) is the #1 guy for the Spartans, catching 44 passes for 702 yards and 4 TD’s — all team-leading. Forget run-defense, Indiana’s pass defense is second-to-last, allowing an average of 334.1 yards per game through the air. He’s my favorite Michigan State player, no doubt.


Penn State (-6.5) @ Maryland — O/U: 47


Penn State


QB: Christian Hackenburg ($5,600) is yet another dirt-cheap QB vs. Maryland’s 105th ranked pass D. He’s been trying to use his legs a bit more, which is encouraging, but it’s still a big risk.


RB: I LOVE Saquon Barkley ($5,600). Expect Coach Franklin to continue to roll with him as the primary back after he exploded last Saturday for 194 yards vs the Ohio State defense. His ceiling is yet to be known, but he’ll be fun to monitor over the rest of the season. He’s still a risk in a low over/under and some competition in the backfield, but his potential as a GPP play is tremendous.


WR: Chris Godwin ($4,200) is Hackenburg’s favorite target but I’m not sure I trust Hackenburg’s arm enough to rely on a Penn State receiver.




QB: Perry! That’d be Perry Hills ($5,700), who also tortured the Ohio State defense on the ground, for 170 yards and 2 TD’s. Don’t expect that to happen vs. PSU, but he does have nice upside at his price — more so than Hackenburg.






Tennessee @ Alabama (-15) — O/U: 52.5


Roll Tide! Ha, you’ll never hear me utter those words… unless…. your team (Georgia) needs them to win in order to control your own destiny in the SEC East 🙂




QB: Joshua Dobbs ($6,700) is GPP-only here. If Tennessee is going to upset the Tide at home, Dobbs will do with his legs what he did to Georgia. If you believe TENN will win, roster Dobbs in your GPP’s. Otherwise, avoid the Tennessee offense.









QB: Tennessee is 90th vs. the pass but Jake Coker ($6,300) doesn’t offer enough upside for me.


RB: Derrick Henry ($8,200) is not Jake Coker, but he’s also not Leonard Fournette. He’s priced way too high for my liking. It’s not that I don’t think he’ll have a nice game or produce nicely; I just think you can allocate your salary elsewhere and build a better lineup. Tennessee is 73rd vs. the run and could be in for a long day, and it’ll be up to you whether or not you think Henry will reach value.


WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — Bama will get up early and have little need to pass



Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (-14) — O/U: 74


Texas Tech


QB: Patrick Mahomes II ($8,300) will face an Oklahoma pass D that’s allowed just 152.2 yards per game, on average. Hopefully that will scare people away. Mahomes and the Texas Tech offense. It’s a perfect situation to use Mahomes in GPP’s and if you can afford him, go for it!


RB: DeAndre Washington ($6,000) has surprised a lot of folks with his impressive production this season. He’s averaged 7.0 YPC this season with 7 TD’s. He’s also tacked on 20 receptions for 162 yards and a TD. There’s a lot to like here, but I’m still cautious in a pass-heavy offense. The over/under is high enough for me to feel comfortable rostering Washington, but I’m still much more confident in the Red Raider passing game.


WR: The only Texas Tech receiver you can truly count on for fantasy purposes is Jakeem Grant ($6,700). The only draw back to Grant and any other WR for TT, is the fact that they have TEN different players with double-digit receptions (including Grant). It’s risky, but Grant is the fantasy option I’m most confident in at WR for the Red Raiders.




QB: Baker Mayfield ($8,700) is in a prime spot vs. Texas Tech’s 115th ranked pass defense. He’s an elite option on this early slate.


RB: We’ve got Samaje Perine ($5,400) and Joe Mixon ($4,800) to consider here vs. the Red Raider “run defense” that ranks 123rd, allowing 263.9 yards per game, on average. I’m still leaning Perine, but Mixon does provide more value in the passing game. Either could explode in this one.


WR: Mayfield loves to spread the ball around and while Sterling Shepard ($6,700) is the top option in terms of potential / talent, I still can’t justify paying up for him.


Virginia @ North Carolina (-17.5) — O/U: 59




RB: Taquan Mizzell ($6,500) is an intriguing option due to his pass-catching ability. He posted 33.7 FPS last weekend vs. Syracuse, and gets a nice match-up vs. UNC’s 113th rush defense. The upside is there and he’s definitely worth a look at his price, despite UVA’s decision to pass more than run.




North Carolina


QB Marquise Williams ($8,200) has really turned it on lately, averaging 30.22 FPS over his last 5 games. Virginia has allowed an average of 413 yards per game, 82nd in the nation. Williams is another elite play on the slate and is priced a few hundred under where I think he should be.


Wisconsin (-6) @ Illinois — O/U: 45


No reason to push this game with such a low total and a lack of intriguing options, however, take a peek at Dare Ogunbowale ($5,200) if Corey Clement ($4,200) is unable to go. Taiwan Deal ($4,000)  is out with an ankle injury.


Washington State @ Arizona (-7) — O/U: 72


Washington State


QB: Luke Falk ($9,200) is another elite option, but for the price, I’d rather go pay a little less for some of the other top options on the slate.


RB: In a pass-first (and often) offense, it’s best to avoid the running game (obviously) but Keith Harrington ($3,700) does stick out, as he’s fourth on the team in receptions and second in carries. He’s a deep GPP play if you’re looking to save money at RB.


WR: You know how this goes: Pick one… or two… or all three! Okay, probably not all three, but Gabe Marks ($6,700)Dom Williams ($5,600), and RIver Cracraft ($5,000) are all in play in this one.



QB: Anu Solomon ($6,900) has nice upside for his price and the high over/under game but he’s certainly GPP only.


RB: Nick Wilson ($6,700) is going to be a game-time decision and there have been multiple guys who have shined in filling in for him when he’s been out. Even if Wilson plays, I’d avoid the Wildcat’s rushing attack.


WR: Five players have 18 or more receptions. In other words, pick a guy you’re confident in (if any) and roll with him. If I were giving any advice for selecting out of this group, go for TD’s.


Note: Defensive rankings are based upon yardage allowed per-game.



Take care and GOOD LUCK!!




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