The New York Mets (49-43), led by the red-hot Pete Alonso and his two-game homer streak, are -135 favorites to pick up a win over the Cincinnati Reds (49-46) on Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET, live from Great American Ball Park and broadcast on MLB Network. Marcus Stroman takes the mound for New York while Jeff Hoffman is Cincinnati’s starter for the contest.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of July 21, 2021, 2:00 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.
Mets vs Reds Betting Lines
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been favorites in 54 games this season and won 31 (57.4%) of those contests.
- New York has a record of 22-14 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -135 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 55.3%.
- In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.7 |
| HR | 21 |
| ERA | 5.27 |
| K/9 | 8.1 |
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Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have come away with 19 wins in the 42 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This year, Cincinnati has won 10 of 20 games when listed as at least +115 or worse on the moneyline.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 44.7% chance of pulling out a win.
- In their last 10 matchups with a total posted by sportsbooks, the Reds and their foes are 4-6 when it comes to hitting the over.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.2 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 4.74 |
| K/9 | 9.3 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Jeff Hoffman
- Hoffman (3-4) takes the mound first for the Reds in his 11th start of the season. He’s put together a 4.61 ERA in 41 innings pitched, with 39 strikeouts.
- In his last time out on Thursday, May 27, the right-hander tossed 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals, giving up two earned runs while surrendering two hits.
- The 28-year-old has put together a 4.61 ERA and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 10 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .244 to opposing hitters.
- Hoffman will try to record his fifth outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 4.1 innings per appearance.
- The Reds have been the underdog on the moneyline in six of Hoffman’s starts this season, and they went 4-2 in those matchups.
Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of July 21, 2021 at 2:35 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.
Mets Hitting Splits
| Split | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall | 49-43 |
| Home | 28-14 |
| Road | 21-29 |
| vs LHP (Starters) | 8-17 |
| vs RHP (Starters) | 39-26 |
| Day Games | 11-8 |
| Night Games | 38-35 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Marcus Stroman
- The Mets’ Stroman (6-8) will make his 20th start of the season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Friday, when he tossed five innings while giving up two earned runs on eight hits in a matchup with the Pirates.
- Among qualified major league pitchers this season, the 30-year-old’s ERA ranks 13th in ERA.
- Stroman has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
- His team has won 38.5% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (5-8).
Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of July 21, 2021 at 2:35 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.
Reds Hitting Splits
| Split | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall | 49-46 |
| Home | 24-24 |
| Road | 25-22 |
| vs LHP (Starters) | 11-6 |
| vs RHP (Starters) | 38-39 |
| Day Games | 19-12 |
| Night Games | 30-34 |
Mets Hitting Stats
- The Mets average 1.1 home runs per game to rank 25th in MLB action with 101 total home runs .
- The Mets average 1.3 homers per game when playing on the road this season (64 total in road outings).
- New York has hit 21 home runs over the past 10 games.
- Alonso leads New York in home runs with 19 and runs batted in with 53.
- Dominic Smith has collected 75 hits this season and has an OBP of .319. He’s slugging .399 on the year.
Reds Hitting Stats
- The Reds’ 118 home runs rank 12th in Major League Baseball.
- They’ve hit 73 homers, an average of 1.5 per game, in 48 home contests this season.
- Cincinnati has hit seven home runs over the last 10 games.
- Nicholas Castellanos paces the Reds with 59 runs batted in while racking up a team-high batting average of .329.
- Jesse Winker’s 19 home runs pace his team.
Game Prediction
Moneyline Pick:
Mets (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (10.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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