Padres Vs Braves: MLB Betting Lines, Stats And Predictions – July 21, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on July 21, 2021

Two of the league’s top power hitters will meet Wednesday when the San Diego Padres (55-42) and Atlanta Braves (46-47) take to the field at 12:20 PM ET, live on MLB Network. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 28 home runs for the Padres (-160 favorites on the moneyline) while Freddie Freeman has 22 homers this season for the Braves (+140). San Diego’s Chris Paddack and Atlanta’s Kyle Muller have been named the starters for this contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of July 21, 2021, 2:00 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Padres vs Braves Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

  • This season, the Padres have won 48 out of the 77 games, or 62.3%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season, San Diego has won 29 of its 48 games, or 60.4%, when favored by at least -160 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 59.6%.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents are 6-4 when it comes to hitting the over.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 6.8
HR 13
ERA 5.40
K/9 6.9

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Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have been chosen as underdogs in 32 games this year and have walked away with the win 17 times (53.1%) in those games.
  • Atlanta has been listed as an underdog of +140 or more on two occasions this season and split those games.
  • The Braves have an implied victory probability of 40.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • In their last 10 matchups with a total posted by sportsbooks, the Braves and their opponents are 7-3 when it comes to hitting the over.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 13
ERA 4.19
K/9 8.8

Braves Probable Pitcher – Kyle Muller

  • Muller gets the start for the Braves, his fourth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 20 strikeouts through 15 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent time out was on Saturday, July 3 against the Marlins, when the left-hander went 5 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing four hits.
  • In four games this season, the 23-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.45, with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .185 against him.
  • Muller will try to prolong a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 3.0 frames per outing).
  • The Braves were the moneyline underdog for two Muller starts this season — they split the games.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of July 21, 2021 at 2:38 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Padres Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 55-42
Home 33-19
Road 22-23
vs LHP (Starters) 16-7
vs RHP (Starters) 37-35
Day Games 5-4
Night Games 50-38

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Chris Paddack

  • The Padres will send Paddack (5-6) to the mound for his 18th start this season.
  • The right-hander gave up four earned runs in five innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the Nationals.
  • The 25-year-old has an ERA of 5.49, 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a batting average against of .276 in 18 games this season.
  • In 17 starts, Paddack has pitched through or past the fifth inning 10 times. He has a season average of 4.1 frames per outing.
  • When he starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 11-6.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of July 21, 2021 at 2:38 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Braves Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 46-47
Home 26-24
Road 20-23
vs LHP (Starters) 11-10
vs RHP (Starters) 33-36
Day Games 9-10
Night Games 37-37

Padres Hitting Stats

  • The Padres average 1.2 home runs per game to rank 12th in MLB play with 118 total home runs .
  • The Padres average 1.4 homers per road game this season (62 total away from home).
  • San Diego has hit 13 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Tatis is batting .291 this season with 28 home runs, both rank first among San Diego hitters.
  • Jake Cronenworth has collected 100 hits this season and has an OBP of .351. He’s slugging .472 on the year.

Braves Hitting Stats

  • The Braves rank fifth in Major League Baseball with 129 home runs.
  • They’ve hit 78 homers, an average of 1.6 per game, in 50 home contests this season.
  • Atlanta has 13 homers over its last 10 games.
  • Freeman has collected a team-best 22 home runs.
  • Ozzie Albies has made the most of his opportunities as he leads his team with 63 runs batted in.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (+140)

Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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