Week 9 NFL Betting Picks 2021 | Odds, Previews, And Predictions For Every Game

Posted By Brian Sausa on November 5, 2021 - Last Updated on November 7, 2021

We have officially made it through the first two months of the 2021-22 National Football League season and as the calendar flips to November, we arrive at the midway point of this inaugural 18-week schedule.

Online sportsbooks have been quite busy each and every week of the NFL season and that won’t change with 14 games to choose from and four teams on bye in Week 9. Using odds from several well-known sportsbooks including BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel, let’s get to our Week 9 odds and betting picks for every game.

Week 9 NFL Betting Lines

NFL Week 9 Predictions | Odds, Previews, And Picks

Thursday, Nov. 4 (8:20 P.M. ET)

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts ()

Thursday Night Football kicks off with the Jets visiting the Colts, and we’ve immediately reached the second-largest spread of the Week 9 slate, though it isn’t as big as it could be. Indy was giving away two touchdowns before the Colts fell to the Titans and the Jets beat the Bengals as 11-point underdogs.

Carson Wentz did all he could to turn a win into a loss in Week 9, but we aren’t over-thinking this. The Jets’ 30th-ranked run defense (according to Pro Football Focus) is no match for a Colts offense ranks top 10 in yards per rush. Few units have allowed more explosive plays than Gang Green and this has the potential to be the time of Jonathan Taylor’s life.

The only thing that keeps you from taking the Colts is Carson Wentz’s propensity to turn the ball over at inopportune moments, and the Jets did just force Joe Burrow into a couple of mistake throws. But we aren’t going to let recency bias trick us into thinking the Colts won’t be in control of this game at home. We’d lay off the spread but if you’re into building 10-point teasers, Indy fits the bill along with Dallas.

These offenses move at a slow pace but now that we’ve seen Mike White and the Jets score on a decent defense in Cincinnati, we’ll side with the over.

Picks: Over 44 (-110), Colts -10 (up to -115)

Full Colts vs. Jets Betting Preview

Sunday, Nov. 7 (1 P.M. ET)

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints ()

The Falcons’ offense has shown out the past few weeks against some bottom-of-the-barrel defenses, but that isn’t New Orleans. The Saints’ defense ranks 10th in yards per play and third in total DVOA. Atlanta’s lack of early-down success on offense and the lack of weapons without Calvin Ridley is a serious problem against this group.

Atlanta has no chance to run the ball against perhaps the best defense in football (No. 1 in yards per play allowed) and being one-dimensional against New Orleans is a recipe for disaster.

No disrespect to Jameis Winston, but the game plan doesn’t change with Trevor Siemian in the game for New Orleans. Expect the Saints to keep leaning on Alvin Kamara but the offensive line has a top-five pass block win rate, which should give Siemien the little bit of time he needs to make plays when he has to.

The offense is No. 7 in the red zone, while the defense is first in the league at denying touchdowns. So count on the Saints to capitalize while not allowing other teams to do the same.

Picks: New Orleans Saints -5 up to -5.5 (-115 or better), Over 45 (-110)

Full Falcons vs. Saints Betting Preview

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys ()

Not only is Dallas 3-0 at home so far this season, but it is also averaging over 40 points per game at Jerry World. One of those games came against Carolina, whose defense has played better than nearly any other so far this season, and the Cowboys still scored 36. So forgive us for not being worried about Denver, which is a below-average pass defense (21st in DVOA) and struggles to get to the quarterback.

Dak Prescott is going to have all day to throw behind Dallas’ offensive line and Denver’s aggressiveness may play into his hands. With all the weapons on offense, we’ve seen Prescott torch teams that like to blitz and we’ll see it again, as Denver sends extra players at the third-highest clip in the league.

Picks: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110 or better), Under 49.5 (-110)

Full Broncos vs. Cowboys Betting Preview

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers ()

Without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers’ offense looks lost, and this is when Bill Belichick pounces. A solid offense like New Orleans or Dallas could give the Pats some trouble but outside of the Texans game, most of the bad ones have struggled. New England even gave the Bucs and Tom Brady some fits earlier this season.

On the short line, we like the Pats to smother an offense that ranks 20th on early downs, 24th on third downs, and 30th in yards per play. Whether it’s Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker, we don’t think there’s much difference for the Panthers on offense. On the other side, the Patriots have the top-ranked run game according to PFF and if you’re picking one place the Carolina defense struggles, it’s stopping the ground attack.

These two teams both move at an average pace on offense but even if you think there will be some success moving the ball, the game script should include plenty of running the ball and that will likely not allow this total to get too high.

Picks: Under 43.5 (-110), Patriots -1.5 up to -3 (-110)

Full Patriots vs. Panthers Betting Preview

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens ()

For all of Lamar Jackson’s improvement as a pocket passer, the Ravens want to run the ball. It just so happens that Minnesota isn’t great at stopping the run, even though it is decent against the pass. The Vikings’ defense ranks dead last in run stop win rate while Baltimore ranks 26th in pass play percentage. So we can be sure they’re running it early and often, and likely with tons of success.

This number is a bit high at -5.5 but while it’s under a touchdown, we’re with Baltimore finding more success on the ground than Minnesota does through the air. That correlates to time-consuming drives for the Ravens, and both of these teams also play pretty slow. So it’s a play on the under as well.

Picks: Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110)

Full Vikings vs. Ravens Betting Preview

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals ()

Well, Cincinnati owned Pittsburgh and the Steelers just beat the Browns in Cleveland. Doesn’t that mean the Bengals should beat the Browns at home in Week 9? If only the NFL worked that way, we’d all make money each week. In what may look like a fool’s errand, we are siding with the Browns and a full field goal or more.

Heading into Week 8, the Bengals’ defense was a top-10 unit ranking fourth in yards per play. It had just dominated Baltimore but frankly got embarrassed a little bit by the Jets, even if it was only a three-point loss. We aren’t quite sure which one of those performances this team is actually closer to and that makes this group tough to trust.

With the bye approaching for Cincinnati, we aren’t going to see any adjustments on defense and we don’t think this group is nearly as good as the one the Browns just faced. Baker Mayfield is fine in the pocket with some protection and the Browns’ offensive line is second in pass-run win rate, while the Bengals are a team that doesn’t like to blitz and just gave Mike White enough time to throw for 414 yards on them.

Picks: Cleveland Browns +3 (-110), Under 45 (-110)

Full Browns vs. Bengals Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars ()

Giving away two touchdowns on the road in the NFL is never fun, but neither is backing the wrong end of a mismatch as drastic as this one. Buffalo’s universally top-ranked defense has gotten healthy on some bad teams, but Jacksonville absolutely falls into that category, so why expect anything different? This line was actually around 10.5 points before Week 8, then it ballooned after another Bills win combined with a Jacksonville loss.

When you consider that the Jags’ 32nd-ranked DVOA defense has no chance of stopping Josh Allen and the Bills, there’s only one way to bet this game. Jacksonville also can’t throw the ball and Buffalo excels at pass defense. Plus, the Jags may be without James Robinson, so the only thing it does well could be negated.

Buffalo has the best turnover differential in the league and is a great third-down offense, two things we can’t say for the Jags. Take the over, and look toward Buffalo for another huge win.

Picks: Over 49.5 (-110), Buffalo Bills -10.5 (105)

Full Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Preview

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins ()

Now that the dust has settled from the trade deadline and Deshaun Watson is staying put, we now just have two bad football teams playing against one another. The Dolphins are far more talented but shouldn’t be giving away close to touchdown to anyone.

Ultimately, this is a game you stay away from. There is really no statistic to point to that tells you the Texans are worthy of your money, and we all saw Miami lose to the Jaguars in London. Tua does have DeVante Parker back, and it makes a difference, but not a touchdown’s worth. If you’re going to do this to yourself, take the free points with Houston and the under with two slow offenses.

Picks: Under 45 (-110), Houston Texans +7 (-105)

Full Dolphins vs. Texans Betting Preview

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants ()

The Raiders have straightened themselves out after the Jon Gruden mess and are thriving a bit, though new off-the-field issues continue to pop up for this team. Luckily for them, the Week 9 matchup with the Giants is a favorable one in some ways.

The Raiders are coming off a bye while New York is banged up on offense and cannot run the ball. Las Vegas has one of the better pass defenses in football and ranks in the top 10 in both early-down success rate and third-down conversion percentage.

New York’s defense came up big against Kansas City and a repeat effort here is likely to result in a win. But it’s that consistency that we aren’t willing to bet on. We’ll go with the more prepared team that did just lose an explosive part of the offense, but has other playmakers it relies on.

Picks: Las Vegas Raiders -3 (+100 or better), Under 47.5 (-110)

Full Raiders vs. Giants Betting Preview

Sunday, Nov. 7 (4:05 P.M. ET)

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles ()

The Chargers were the early-season darling, beating Janas City and Cleveland in exciting fashion while starting 4-1. But since then, Los Angeles got crushed by Baltimore and lost to New England at home coming out of the bye. What does barely being a favorite against Philadelphia, which has only beaten three bad teams so far, say about this game?

The Eagles do a pretty good job running the football, ranking fourth in yards per rush. It’s the one area that Los Angeles struggles in, so expect Philadelphia to take the air out of the ball and keep it on the ground whenever possible. Combined with Los Angeles’ slow pace, this has ‘under’ written all over it.

The spread is a toss-up because it went from +3.5 to +1 after Week 8 action and it depends where you have it. If you were on Philly early like we were, we feel fine. At a one-point spread, maybe we’d stick with Herbert one more time.

Picks: Under 50.5 (-110), Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (-110)

Full Eagles vs. Chargers Betting Preview

Sunday, Nov. 7 (4:25 P.M. ET)

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs ()

The Packers’ defense wasn’t tested all that much until Week 8, when it bottled up Arizona in an impressive road win. Containing the Chiefs at Arrowhead won’t be easy but given Kansas City’s turnover issues and its inability to stop anyone on defense, there’s really no doubt that it can happen. Unfortunately, it’s an uphill battle for the Packers on offense.

We all know that with Aaron Rodgers (COVID protocol) out, nothing we’ve seen really matters. On a normal day, the Packers can run the ball effectively with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while the Chiefs can do nothing to stop it. But now, this comes down to whether we believe Kanas City can make life tough on Jordan Love and whether the QB change is actually worth the 6.5 points that it seemed to move on the line. The answer is probably yes, but 7.5 points might be too many.

Because of the running game against the Chiefs’ defense, we are sticking with Green Bay and the points if we’re playing this game. If Davante Adams plays, Kansas City selling out to force Love to pass may actually work against them, as the ball will be out of his hands before he can think too much.

Picks: Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-110), Over 48 (-110)

Full Packers vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers ()

The Cardinals are no longer undefeated but did take down the Niners in Week 5 on their way to a 7-0 start. The thing is, that was Trey Lance’s first NFL start and we’re more confident in both his comfort level and Kyle Shanahan’s ability to draw up a game plan around his strengths. Plus, the Packers were able to commit to the run game and keep Kyler Murray off the field, something the Niners will look to copy since it runs as much as any other team.

The Niners’ defense held Arizona to under 100 rushing yards and a 3-for-10 mark on third down, two areas where the Cardinals also struggled against Green Bay. This is becoming a pattern, and it could continue in Week 9. Arizona’s Week 5 win was by seven points and if we factor in it being Lance’s first game and home field for the Niners, we get more than the four points needed to bridge the gap between that spread and this one at +3.

Picks: San Francisco 49ers +3 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)

Full Cardinals vs. 49ers Betting Preview

Sunday, Nov. 7 (8:20 P.M. ET)

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams ()

This had the potential to be one of the best matchups of the week until the Derrick Henry news broke. Now, the Rams are favored by more than a touchdown and we’re wondering whether this Titans run is about to come to a close.

Tennessee’s identity is running the ball, and it will be forced to improvise a little bit, as newly-signed Adrian Peterson won’t be up to speed just yet. Maybe that’s a good sign this week, as the Rams’ run defense is No. 2 according to Pro Football Focus and it ranks sixth in run stop win rate.

On the other side, the Titans’ defense has puit on some incredible performances of late, and it will need another one if it’s going to keep this close in Week 9. Matthew Stafford fits in Sean McVay’s offense like a glove on a hand, and this group ranks No. 1 in passing DVOA,  yards per play, and early down success rate.

Picks: Los Angeles Rams -7.5 (-110), Under 53 (-110)

Full Titans vs. Rams Betting Preview

Monday, Nov. 8 (8:15 P.M. ET)

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers ()

The Week 9 schedule comes to a close with the Steelers hosting the Bears on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh opened at -5.5 points in a game that features two teams that excel on defense, though Chicago took a step back in 2020. The Steelers allowed the fifth-fewest points per game last year, and also have much more offensive firepower than the opponent in this one. The Bears are also closing out a three-game gauntlet featuring Tampa and San Francisco before even going to Heinz Field. We’d back the Steelers giving under a touchdown and look toward the under.

Picks: Steelers -4.5 (-110), Over 40.5 (-110)

Full Bears vs. Steelers Betting Preview

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Brian Sausa

Brian Sausa is a longtime sports writer with extensive betting experience and knowledge of the industry. A journalism graduate with an extensive sports background, Brian has been employed by multiple professional leagues including MLB, MiLB (Minor League Baseball), and the NHL.

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