Is anybody else just as excited as I am that we now have a new season of PGA Tour golf?! Does this mean I can stop binge watching Game of Thrones? Probably not, but at least golf is back. That’s right, the new 2015-16 PGA Tour season kicks off this week with the Frys.com Open at Silverado Country Club in Napa, California.
Silverado CC is a par 72 course that measures just over 7,200 yards and something to keep in mind is that last year was the first time that the Frys.com Open was hosted at Silverado.
KEY STATS:
GIR Percentage
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Rory Mcllroy
$12,800 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 4.5-1
Expected Ownership: 12.2%
The only reason I could see Rory’s ownership being potentially low is because he cost so much more than everyone else. He is almost in Russell Westbrook’s price territory this week which is sort of understandable with the large field of Web.com graduates. Rory dominates par 5s and would rank in the top 10 in GIR if he were eligible. Loading up on Rory is never a bad idea and I could honestly see him walking away with this tournament.
Justin Rose
$12,000 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 9-1
Expected Ownership: 15.5%
For whatever reason, I am rarely talking about Justin Rose. This week, I just couldn’t resist. This probably means he is going to WD or be DFL but so be it. Rose sets up perfectly for this course, ranking in the top 10 in GIR Percentage and SG:T2G and in the top 5 in Par 5 Scoring. Aside from a MC at the Deutsche Bank, Rose finished last season with 6 straight top 20 finishes, 3 of which were top 5 finishes. If anyone can give Rory a run for his money this week, it’s going to be Rose.
Hideki Matsuyama
$10,800 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 16-1
Expected Ownership: 18.1%
Matsuyama continues to be one of my favorite plays each week because of how freakishly talented and consistent he is. He was pretty much unconscious last season from about February to July before cooling down a bit. He bounced back well though and ended last season with 3 straight top 25s including a T7 at the BMW Championship. He ranks in the top 25 in Par 5 Scoring and GIR Percentage, top 10 in SG:T2G, and 3rd in Par 4 Scoring. All the Matsuyama this week!
VALUE PLAYS:
Russell Knox
$7900 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 66-1
Expected Ownership: 17.8%
I expect that a decent amount of people will be on Russell Knox this week. His price is very appealing and he dominates par 4s. Knox ranks 7th in GIR Percentage and Par 4 Scoring. He is a very consistent cut maker and ended the season with top 20 finishes in 2 of his last 3 events.
Chez Reavie
$7800 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 80-1
Expected Ownership: 4.6%
Reavie doesn’t have the name value for many people to be on him especially this early in the season. Plus his 8/19 cuts made last season doesn’t intrigue the people who are only looking at box scores and recent performance. All that being said, on courses where accuracy and hitting greens are the most important, he always seems to ball out. Chez is ranked in the top 15 in GIR Percentage and 3rd in Driving Accuracy. He is reasonably priced and considering he should be low owned, he could pay off in a nice way.
Will Wilcox
$7500 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 100-1
Expected Ownership: 20.5%
For whatever reason, DraftKings never seems to raise Wilcox’s price above $7500. Not that I’m complaining because he is pretty much an auto-play at that price considering how talented he is and how great of a presence he has on Twitter. Anyway, the GOAT ranks 4th in GIR Percentage, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 2nd in the All-Around. Oh and before the MC at The Barclays, he has top 10 finishes in 3 of his last 4 events. Tell me again how he is 100-1 to win this?!
PUNT PLAY:
Steve Wheatcroft
$5700 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 250-1
Expected Ownership: 2.5%
Wheatcroft’s numbers don’t pop off the page for any particular category but he is pretty solid all around. He is a great putter as he ranks in the top 30 in SG:Putting and he has shown the ability to string together some birdies in bunches at times. He is a solid scrambler and if the course doesn’t play as expected which has been known to happen with small sample sizes of course history, Wheatcroft could be a great low-owned pivot that pays dividends. He also had 2 top 12 finishes in his last 5 events to end last season. That is the type of upside you should look for when punting a golfer under 6K.
Guys I’m Fading: Robert Streb, Brandt Snedeker, Brendon De Jonge
My Winner: What better way to start off the new PGA Tour Season than with a Rory Mcllroy Win?!?!
Best of luck this week, I hope you win all the money and kill it this PGA Season!!!
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